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A case of overstatement?
KESAVA MENON
Two investigative journalists on Pakistans clandestine development of nuclear weapon technology
DECEPTION Pakistan, the United States and the Global Nuclear Weapons Conspiracy: Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark; Penguin Books India Pvt. Ltd., 11, Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi-110017. Rs. 595.
What this book is all about is perhaps best summed up in its penultimate paragraph. In the view of Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark, It will only be a matter of time before the rising tide of Sunni extremism and the fast-flowing current of nuclear exports find common cause and realize their apocalyptic intent. There are plenty of ideologues, thinkers and Islamic strategists who are working towards precisely that goal, and here is a regime in Islamabad that has no hard and fast rules, no unambiguous goals or laws, and no line that cannot be bent or reshaped. If the people of India, who are arguably the most exposed to this looming threat, do not have a sense of imminent danger could the authors be overstating their case?
Three interlocking themes
The arguments in this book, which run along three eventually interlocking lines, are not really new but what makes the work by Levy and Scott-Clark significant is that much of the accumulated evidence on the topics under discussion has been put together in one place. The authors case is that Pakistans clandestine development and proliferation of nuclear weapon technology has been carried out with blatant disregard or deliberate subversion of international rules; that the army of the Islamic Republic has nurtured Sunni extremism over many decades; and, that successive administrations in the United States have wilfully neglected or even benignly tolerated this menace even as they raised and destroyed bogeys. Few would fault these arguments when they are stated in such bald form. But the question still remains whether the authors are able to convince the reader that these developments are leading towards an apocalyptic conclusion.
Nexus with religious extremism
For Indian readers, the answer actually lies outside the scope of this book. Strategic thinkers in this country, especially those who have closely followed Pakistans nuclear weapon programme and its nexus with religious extremism, have spoken and written at length on this topic. They political parties of a particular bent and personnel of the diplomatic, intelligence and military establishments have raised these alarms time and again. And, they have done so from long before this book appeared. India has also been struck repeatedly by Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and has twice been the recipient of the nuclear threat, during Operation Brass Tacks and the Kargil war. Yet, few in this country go about their lives fearing that a mushroom cloud will burst upon their skies. Is that the reaction to overkill by proponents of Pakistani perfidy, a reflection of our much-talked about fatalism or the result of a belief that people with whom we share cultural affinities will never go that far? In short, do we as a society, need to be more alert than we are to the dangers of an extremist Pakistan throwing nukes in our direction.
At close quarters
This reviewer lived in Pakistan for three years journalistically studying its society and politics. That was a phase at which extremism in that country was at one of its high tides. I have also encountered many of the principal characters in the book under review, spoken to several of them and observed others at close quarters. I am, therefore, pretty qualified to make a call. Do I share the view of Scott-Clark and Levy that the doomsday scenario they project should cause far more alarm than currently seems to be the case. The most honest answer I can provide is that while a real nuclear threat from Pakistan will most definitely arise if extremists come to power or get hold of a nuclear weapon by some means or the other, Pakistani state and society are not likely to trip over into extremist control. The moderate core of Pakistan is large, resilient and still retains the capacity to overwhelm extremism. And, No! I am not writing this as an accredited member of unofficial bilateral panels because I have participated in such events only once. I draw this sense more from my experiences with the villagers of Pakistan, including those from the military belt of Potohar. True, the Salafist indoctrination has spread much wider since the early 1990s and the authors make an alarming revelation that auditors found several canisters of enriched uranium missing from Kahuta. For all that, I require more evidence than this book provides before I can be convinced that a nuclear terrorist threat is imminent.
Intense research
That said, I must acknowledge that the far more intense research the authors of Deception have put into their work do bear out some of the impressions I had formed and they do so with far stronger foundation. For instance, the impression I formed of Abdul Qadeer Khan (the Father of the Islamic Bomb) after attending two of the press briefings where he was present was that the man was completely nuts but there must be something indefinable to him if he could make Pakistan a nuclear power.
Scott-Clark and Levy do more than flesh out this impression when they draw a picture of a fairly dim-witted but unscrupulous egomaniac who had the street sense to know that Pakistan had to take the low road to become a nuclear power. So, onto the final judgment on the book. It must be read and seriously, but do not lose your South Asian senses as you go about it.
KESAVA MENON
Two investigative journalists on Pakistans clandestine development of nuclear weapon technology
DECEPTION Pakistan, the United States and the Global Nuclear Weapons Conspiracy: Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark; Penguin Books India Pvt. Ltd., 11, Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi-110017. Rs. 595.
What this book is all about is perhaps best summed up in its penultimate paragraph. In the view of Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark, It will only be a matter of time before the rising tide of Sunni extremism and the fast-flowing current of nuclear exports find common cause and realize their apocalyptic intent. There are plenty of ideologues, thinkers and Islamic strategists who are working towards precisely that goal, and here is a regime in Islamabad that has no hard and fast rules, no unambiguous goals or laws, and no line that cannot be bent or reshaped. If the people of India, who are arguably the most exposed to this looming threat, do not have a sense of imminent danger could the authors be overstating their case?
Three interlocking themes
The arguments in this book, which run along three eventually interlocking lines, are not really new but what makes the work by Levy and Scott-Clark significant is that much of the accumulated evidence on the topics under discussion has been put together in one place. The authors case is that Pakistans clandestine development and proliferation of nuclear weapon technology has been carried out with blatant disregard or deliberate subversion of international rules; that the army of the Islamic Republic has nurtured Sunni extremism over many decades; and, that successive administrations in the United States have wilfully neglected or even benignly tolerated this menace even as they raised and destroyed bogeys. Few would fault these arguments when they are stated in such bald form. But the question still remains whether the authors are able to convince the reader that these developments are leading towards an apocalyptic conclusion.
Nexus with religious extremism
For Indian readers, the answer actually lies outside the scope of this book. Strategic thinkers in this country, especially those who have closely followed Pakistans nuclear weapon programme and its nexus with religious extremism, have spoken and written at length on this topic. They political parties of a particular bent and personnel of the diplomatic, intelligence and military establishments have raised these alarms time and again. And, they have done so from long before this book appeared. India has also been struck repeatedly by Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and has twice been the recipient of the nuclear threat, during Operation Brass Tacks and the Kargil war. Yet, few in this country go about their lives fearing that a mushroom cloud will burst upon their skies. Is that the reaction to overkill by proponents of Pakistani perfidy, a reflection of our much-talked about fatalism or the result of a belief that people with whom we share cultural affinities will never go that far? In short, do we as a society, need to be more alert than we are to the dangers of an extremist Pakistan throwing nukes in our direction.
At close quarters
This reviewer lived in Pakistan for three years journalistically studying its society and politics. That was a phase at which extremism in that country was at one of its high tides. I have also encountered many of the principal characters in the book under review, spoken to several of them and observed others at close quarters. I am, therefore, pretty qualified to make a call. Do I share the view of Scott-Clark and Levy that the doomsday scenario they project should cause far more alarm than currently seems to be the case. The most honest answer I can provide is that while a real nuclear threat from Pakistan will most definitely arise if extremists come to power or get hold of a nuclear weapon by some means or the other, Pakistani state and society are not likely to trip over into extremist control. The moderate core of Pakistan is large, resilient and still retains the capacity to overwhelm extremism. And, No! I am not writing this as an accredited member of unofficial bilateral panels because I have participated in such events only once. I draw this sense more from my experiences with the villagers of Pakistan, including those from the military belt of Potohar. True, the Salafist indoctrination has spread much wider since the early 1990s and the authors make an alarming revelation that auditors found several canisters of enriched uranium missing from Kahuta. For all that, I require more evidence than this book provides before I can be convinced that a nuclear terrorist threat is imminent.
Intense research
That said, I must acknowledge that the far more intense research the authors of Deception have put into their work do bear out some of the impressions I had formed and they do so with far stronger foundation. For instance, the impression I formed of Abdul Qadeer Khan (the Father of the Islamic Bomb) after attending two of the press briefings where he was present was that the man was completely nuts but there must be something indefinable to him if he could make Pakistan a nuclear power.
Scott-Clark and Levy do more than flesh out this impression when they draw a picture of a fairly dim-witted but unscrupulous egomaniac who had the street sense to know that Pakistan had to take the low road to become a nuclear power. So, onto the final judgment on the book. It must be read and seriously, but do not lose your South Asian senses as you go about it.
