jhungary
MILITARY PROFESSIONAL
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- Oct 24, 2012
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In my opinion, ISIS can and will and indeed did establish itself in the Middle East.
Now, i do not know much about politics, so my point is going to present in a pure military point of view. And the following short discussion would be based on past ISIS miltary action and prediction of future ISIS move.
1.) ISIS is an ideaology, and Ideology feed off people, as long as there are people supporting ISIS ideology, the organisation will exist, one way or another.
2.) What ISIS currently (from 2011 - present) fighting now is what the US Military Termed a 4th generation warfare. Where a war not simply involve combatent and non-combatent, but also political entity and civilian. In another word an insurgent with its own land.
3.) The inability of Iraq and Syria to puch ISIS with conventional warfare
4.) The ISIS is settling itself with conventional warfare with Iraq and Syria and unless the ISIS harm international/US interest in the area, International Organisation (UN) or US will not put boots on the ground, as with the international reaction to Syria Civil war.
5.) As long as Syrian Civil War continue to exist, this will give a breathing place (Or a breather) for ISIS to regroup and reorganisation even if Iraq push off all ISIS element within Iraq, the ISIS will simply move back to syria and regroup. Unless the international entity put an end to Syria Civil war, there are no way Syria can resist an ISIS present in its country.
6.) Iraqi Force was not trained to fight convention set piece battle, the bulk of the force was train on counter-insurgency, as with what the country gone thru in the past 9 years, they weren't train with combine warfare, and retraining takes time.
7.) ISIS battle strategy is divide and conquerer, where they bet on other country would not react when they target their secular enemy, and indeed it doesn't (A la case with PKK and Turkish, Kurd and Iraq, Iraq and Iran and Lebannon) As long as seculism exist, the ISIS would continue to bet on local enemy and use it agaisnt the host nation.
8.) US/Allies would not have stomach for another all out Iraq war, given they just withdrew 3 year prior.
9.) In the case with Iraq, the only way for IRaq to stand up tp ISIS is to disband itself (Military and government ) and present itself with all the resource to a foreign entity (US/UN) and have them control their military and country again fully, otherwise there are going to be a part of the government or Iraq would not want to participate and unless it's a hey-ho one giant push and flush the ISIS out of Iraq completely, any faction that harbour the ISIS would potential be the ground that ISIS rekindle. Think of the Sunni population in Iraq...
Hence from all the above factor presents, i concluded that ISIS would be sucessfully establishing statehoood in Iraq and Syria
Now, i do not know much about politics, so my point is going to present in a pure military point of view. And the following short discussion would be based on past ISIS miltary action and prediction of future ISIS move.
1.) ISIS is an ideaology, and Ideology feed off people, as long as there are people supporting ISIS ideology, the organisation will exist, one way or another.
2.) What ISIS currently (from 2011 - present) fighting now is what the US Military Termed a 4th generation warfare. Where a war not simply involve combatent and non-combatent, but also political entity and civilian. In another word an insurgent with its own land.
3.) The inability of Iraq and Syria to puch ISIS with conventional warfare
4.) The ISIS is settling itself with conventional warfare with Iraq and Syria and unless the ISIS harm international/US interest in the area, International Organisation (UN) or US will not put boots on the ground, as with the international reaction to Syria Civil war.
5.) As long as Syrian Civil War continue to exist, this will give a breathing place (Or a breather) for ISIS to regroup and reorganisation even if Iraq push off all ISIS element within Iraq, the ISIS will simply move back to syria and regroup. Unless the international entity put an end to Syria Civil war, there are no way Syria can resist an ISIS present in its country.
6.) Iraqi Force was not trained to fight convention set piece battle, the bulk of the force was train on counter-insurgency, as with what the country gone thru in the past 9 years, they weren't train with combine warfare, and retraining takes time.
7.) ISIS battle strategy is divide and conquerer, where they bet on other country would not react when they target their secular enemy, and indeed it doesn't (A la case with PKK and Turkish, Kurd and Iraq, Iraq and Iran and Lebannon) As long as seculism exist, the ISIS would continue to bet on local enemy and use it agaisnt the host nation.
8.) US/Allies would not have stomach for another all out Iraq war, given they just withdrew 3 year prior.
9.) In the case with Iraq, the only way for IRaq to stand up tp ISIS is to disband itself (Military and government ) and present itself with all the resource to a foreign entity (US/UN) and have them control their military and country again fully, otherwise there are going to be a part of the government or Iraq would not want to participate and unless it's a hey-ho one giant push and flush the ISIS out of Iraq completely, any faction that harbour the ISIS would potential be the ground that ISIS rekindle. Think of the Sunni population in Iraq...
Hence from all the above factor presents, i concluded that ISIS would be sucessfully establishing statehoood in Iraq and Syria
