A question on Pakistan's GDP growth.

[Kompromat]

I was just wondering what would (almost) 50 billion dollar expected foreign investment do to Pakistan's GDP growth rate in the next decade?

 

[M.SAAD]

A little boost maybe, don't expect any miracles or proper growth until the country gets rid of Energy Crises and peace prevails fully .

 

[Kompromat]

A little boost maybe, don't expect any miracles or proper growth until the country gets rid of Energy Crises and peace prevails fully .

Can we maintain stable 5% growth?

 

[M.SAAD]

Can we maintain stable 5% growth?

I don't think so, but if we could that'd be a huge success.

Tbh, any growth of Pakistan at this point is a positive growth, given the current circumstances the country is in right now.. War against TTP,Baloch insurgency,terrorism,energy crises and all that BS.

 

[Shamain]

I had read khawaja sif was saying after 10 to 15 years we will not have a single drop of water left in pakistan if we dont build dams and do something abt it, and apparently some indians were poking fun at pakistanis on that, that lets see if u will be around by 2030. so to talk of growth iwill be looking more towards these issus then relying on foreign invt.

 

[M.SAAD]

I had read khawaja sif was saying after 10 to 15 years we will not have a single drop of water left in pakistan if we dont build dams and do something abt it, and apparently some indians were poking fun at pakistanis on that, that lets see if u will be around by 2030. so to talk of growth iwill be looking more towards these issus then relying on foreign invt.

Why so?

 

[ziaulislam]

Can we maintain stable 5% growth?

it will drive the growth to 6-7% for couple of years but stable growth...a big NO

problem is not only energy, even solving the energy crisis will not bring sustainable growth though a good growth for a decade may be.

sustainable growth is achieved by two important sectors completely ignored for the past 50 years
1. education
2. health
and some
3. fiscal discipline
4. reforms

so far govt has miserably failed in these sectors and even failed in power sector reforms

we have left another generation complete uneducated. one wonders why govt cannot unlock a simple mystery of primary education which over 130 countries have achieved already
it think the answer lies in Qadratullah Sahab book when he complaints to a politicians that school are closed and he gots a reply "so what"?
followed by a question were our forefathers educated..no!. so they can do without education too.

 

[Shamain]

Why so?

Because we built no new dams. India is building dam on our waters. And our underground water sources are depleting.

We are in for some trouble. But if u neelum jehlum, mainly mainly kalabagh dam, your future generations will be eternally thankful to u.
We are facin energy ,water all kind of crises.
And also we need to get ourselves relesead from the clutches of imports in manufacturing area and start expanding our base.
And we aret eve using our resources. We have acres of coal mines and yet we are signing deals with indonesia for coal import.

 

[I FLY HIGH]

I don't think so, but if we could that'd be a huge success.

Tbh, any growth of Pakistan at this point is a positive growth, given the current circumstances the country is in right now.. War against TTP,Baloch insurgency,terrorism,energy crises and all that BS.

War against TTP is at its last stages , terrorism incidents are record low , i believe this is done , Baloch insurgency will be dealt with the same vigour but i dont think that it would affect the growth to a large extent . Energy crisis is to be gone with the chineese investment .

 

[ziaulislam]

to put it short let say pakistan had a 90% literacy than even with power crisis we would have been acheiving a sustainble growth. in reality there would have been no power crisis, no terrorism.

everything works as a chain and education is the most important aspect in it.

world needs a educated working labour force and they will rush for it where ever they find it, because with education everything fits in, banking, commercial sector and expenditure. Foreign investment would have solved all the problems itself.
this is the real secret behind Chinese, taiwan, japan and south korea growth and sustained growth in srilanka despite being in worst civil war ever.

second important sector is health, health represents one of the largest portions in GDP in world. in Pakistan its in a disastrous situation...

War against TTP is at its last stages , terrorism incidents are record low , i believe this is done , Baloch insurgency will be dealt with the same vigour but i dont think that it would affect the growth to a large extent . Energy crisis is to be gone with the chineese investment .

did we had TTP in 90s?
of course not but our growth was similar..yes people will put blame on some sort of USA trade bans but other countries with worse trade embargoes did far better.

in reality terrorism does effect growth but its not the root of the problem here, so dont expect miracles even if TTP is gone..we are about to loose another 20 years for not educating our current generation.

if govt fails to reform health and education than dont expect a sustainable growth just few years of growth here and there due to some foreign investments, overall a tortoise pace growth

 

[I FLY HIGH]

it will drive the growth to 6-7% for couple of years but stable growth...a big NO

problem is not only energy, even solving the energy crisis will not bring sustainable growth though a good growth for a decade may be.

sustainable growth is achieved by two important sectors completely ignored for the past 50 years
1. education
2. health
and some
3. fiscal discipline
4. reforms

so far govt has miserably failed in these sectors and even failed in power sector reforms

we have left another generation complete uneducated. one wonders why govt cannot unlock a simple mystery of primary education which over 130 countries have achieved already
it think the answer lies in Qadratullah Sahab book when he complaints to a politicians that school are closed and he gots a reply "so what"?
followed by a question were our forefathers educated..no!. so they can do without education too.

We have a huge lot of unemployed engineers , MBAs, computer tecnologists , accountants etc . There may be a lot of improvement which needs to be done but a large pool of educated people (in millions ) is available for the growth . Health sector is the same in all south asia . Fiscal disicpline is better than before , i dont have any idea why you propagate dispondency ?

 

[ziaulislam]

We have a huge lot of unemployed engineers , MBAs, computer tecnologists , accountants etc . There may be a lot of improvement which needs to be done but a large pool of educated people (in millions ) is available for the growth . Health sector is the same in all south asia . Fiscal disicpline is better than before , i dont have any idea why you propagate dispondency ?

lets say you have engneers but do you have educated labour class for those engneers? will it work?

ofocuse not.

see the points is that disproportionate education system doesnt work. It has failed in other countries like india too. as i said everything works as a chain. if you look at financial working of other countries closely you will understand, anything less than 90-95% education will not work. banking sector drives the growth but uneducated class cant use banking sector, just 10-15% of pakistani have a credit card vs 100% in USA

secondly whats the standard of our education, one of the worst in the world..yes i am doctor i know that our health education is the worst in world, my brother is engnr and he says the same and we both have foreign exposure as i am resident physician outside pakistan

 

[M.SAAD]

I agree with @ziaulislam, we Need to ENFORCE Primary Education on every single citizen of Pakistan (specially in village and backward areas), need to bring educational reforms at alarming rates, need to make a vision for next 10 years, and propose a Special 'Education Related Budget', need to Ban all madrassas and force the students from madrassas to GO TO SCHOOL ...

these problems in Pakistan can only be solved with long term plannings, no short term solutions can help us get rid of this mess.


And War against TTP is far from its last stages Bro, We have to clean a lot of mess in our country.

 

[ziaulislam]

We have a huge lot of unemployed engineers , MBAs, computer tecnologists , accountants etc . There may be a lot of improvement which needs to be done but a large pool of educated people (in millions ) is available for the growth . Health sector is the same in all south asia . Fiscal disicpline is better than before , i dont have any idea why you propagate dispondency ?

no its not.? yes statistically they will show we are doing better but if you look it close you will know.

fiscal discipline is as bad as ever, simply cutting off development sector doesnt mean good fiscal discipline, its simply austerity measure. fiscal discipline means cutting off useless losses, which has become worse in form of more losses in power sector

why do you think that with renewal interest int he region, lower oil prices pakistan has been able to improve the growth more than 0.5 % (where india had upbeat of 2% this year)

the reason is cutting off development project as lead to lower growth courtesy to IMF, though blame lies in reality to poor taxation and govt missing it targets

 

[I FLY HIGH]

lets say you have engneers but do you have educated labour class for those engneers? will it work?

ofocuse not.

see the points is that disproportionate education system doesnt work. It has failed in other countries like india too. as i said everything works as a chain. if you look at financial working of other countries closely you will understand, anything less than 90-95% education will not work. banking sector drives the growth but uneducated class cant use banking sector, just 10-15% of pakistani have a credit card vs 100% in USA

secondly whats the standard of our education, one of the worst in the world..yes i am doctor i know that our health education is the worst in world, my brother is engnr and he says the same and we both have foreign exposure as i am resident physician outside pakistan

i totally disagree , good A class engineers are available in our country , our standard of engineering universities is good . To support these engineers we have a huge pool of skilled labour available, in the steel mills , oil refineries , textile mills , construction companies all local skilled labour is working and there is no problem . I dont believe that only if we have education 95 percent , then we can achieve 6- 7 percent growth . I am an engineer and i know how much skilled labour is avaiblle in Pakistan . I believe our enterpenure and give has to go hand in hand and invest in our industrial production . This is the only way forward .