Kashmir: If progress is to be made, India must dictate the terms

[Vinod2070]

And yet the fact that both carry on with the relationship and continue to work with each other is proof enough that the approach is working. Nothing is perfect in international geopolitics.

Agree that nothing is perfect and don't want to split hair.

I think they are carrying on but there is a lot of bitterness on both sides.

 

[VCheng]

Agree that nothing is perfect and don't want to split hair.

I think they are carrying on but there is a lot of bitterness on both sides.

Of course the history is quite bitter, but both sides must rise above the past if they are to work in the present for a better future.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

And yet the fact that both carry on with the relationship and continue to work with each other is proof enough that the approach is working. Nothing is perfect in international geopolitics.

The US-Pakistan relationship can 'stumble along' at the 'transactional' level, with various degrees of alignment and cooperation on short/medium term tactical goals, because the US is not located in South Asia and has no defined overarching long term goal in South Asia - the US can walk away when it feels like. And what the US offers Pakistan at the transactional level is simply not something India can match, nor is it anything Pakistan would be interested in if India could match.

The US-Pakistan relationship template simply cannot work in the India-Pakistan context, for one because the India-Pakistan dynamics themselves are a critical factor in the US-Pakistan relationship.

 

[Vinod2070]

The US-Pakistan relationship can 'stumble along' at the 'transactional' level, with various degrees of alignment and cooperation on short/medium term tactical goals, because the US is not located in South Asia and has no defined overarching long term goal in South Asia - the US can walk away when it feels like. And what the US offers Pakistan at the transactional level is simply not something India can match, nor is it anything Pakistan would be interested in if India could match.

The US-Pakistan relationship template simply cannot work in the India-Pakistan context, for one because the India-Pakistan dynamics themselves are a critical factor in the US-Pakistan relationship.

As an example, the US drones and Osama raid is kosher but India taking out Dawood or Hafiz Saeed is presumably not?

 

[VCheng]

As an example, the US drones and Obama raid is kosher but India taking out Dawood or Hafiz Saeed is presumably not?

The difference is that USA can handle the potential fallout, but India cannot.

 

[Vinod2070]

The difference is that USA can handle the potential fallout, but India cannot.

True dat.

 

[VCheng]

True dat.

Which is why more carrot and less stick might be a better option for India to pursue with Pakistan.

 

[Vinod2070]

Which is why more carrot and less stick might be a better option for India to pursue with Pakistan.

Probably. I think that has been tried without much success.

I.K. Gujaral comes to mind when one thinks of this and it was not a success at the time. It was perceived as weakness.

No harm in trying again. Though I think the kind of carrot that may tempt Pakistan may be difficult for India to provide but there are far more creative people than me out there.

 

[VCheng]

Probably. I think that has been tried without much success.

I.K. Gujaral comes to mind when one thinks of this and it was not a success at the time. It was perceived as weakness.

No harm in trying again. Though I think the kind of carrot that may tempt Pakistan may be difficult for India to provide but there are far more creative people than me out there.

There are many cards India can play to its advantage that will be well received in Pakistan to benefit both.

 

[Vinod2070]

There are many cards India can play to its advantage that will be well received in Pakistan to benefit both.

Aapke muh me ghee shakkar.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Probably. I think that has been tried without much success...

... Though I think the kind of carrot that may tempt Pakistan may be difficult for India to provide but there are far more creative people than me out there.

IMO the focus on improving the economic connectivity between the two countries is a good idea (overall), but the current focus on making a few adjustments here and there to the lists of goods that can be export from country to the other severely limits the positive impact on the India-Pakistan relationship.

Pakistan is by far the weaker country economically, and any 'opening of trade' is going to be more of an advantage to India than to Pakistan, much as Pakistan's 'free trade agreement' with China has skewed the trade imbalance in favor of China. A more comprehensive approach to economic cooperation that looks at facilitating investment by major business groups in the other country in certain sectors might alleviate some concerns on the Pakistani side. Think of Indian pharma and automotive assemblers and auto-parts producers teaming up with partners in Pakistan to set up/expand manufacturing facilities.

Of course the beneficiary of such an approach, initially, would be Pakistan primarily, since Indian industry is significantly more diversified, which is why it would have to be part of a long term process of comprehensively liberalizing trade between India and Pakistan.

 

[surya kiran]

IMO the focus on improving the economic connectivity between the two countries is a good idea (overall), but the current focus on making a few adjustments here and there to the lists of goods that can be export from country to the other severely limits the positive impact on the India-Pakistan relationship.

Pakistan is by far the weaker country economically, and any 'opening of trade' is going to be more of an advantage to India than to Pakistan, much as Pakistan's 'free trade agreement' with China has skewed the trade imbalance in favor of China. A more comprehensive approach to economic cooperation that looks at facilitating investment by major business groups in the other country in certain sectors might alleviate some concerns on the Pakistani side. Think of Indian pharma and automotive assemblers and auto-parts producers teaming up with partners in Pakistan to set up/expand manufacturing facilities.

Of course the beneficiary of such an approach, initially, would be Pakistan primarily, since Indian industry is significantly more diversified, which is why it would have to be part of a long term process of comprehensively liberalizing trade between India and Pakistan.

Setting up complete manufacturing plants make sense under the following circumstances:

1. The said market allows economics of scale.
2. The cost structure of manufacturing outweighs the costs of transport.

In both the above cases, Pakistan may have a big market, but its next door and the cost of transportation will be lower. Also, manufacturing requires one pre-requisite. Electricity. This is a major issue in Pakistan and its going to take some time to solve. The sheer cost of power will out-weigh the cost of low labour.

 

[VCheng]

Setting up complete manufacturing plants make sense under the following circumstances:

1. The said market allows economics of scale.
2. The cost structure of manufacturing outweighs the costs of transport.

In both the above cases, Pakistan may have a big market, but its next door and the cost of transportation will be lower. Also, manufacturing requires one pre-requisite. Electricity. This is a major issue in Pakistan and its going to take some time to solve. The sheer cost of power will out-weigh the cost of low labour.

One useful plan is to buy more Pakistani raw materials to be converted into value added products in India.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Setting up complete manufacturing plants make sense under the following circumstances:

1. The said market allows economics of scale.
2. The cost structure of manufacturing outweighs the costs of transport.

In both the above cases, Pakistan may have a big market, but its next door and the cost of transportation will be lower. Also, manufacturing requires one pre-requisite. Electricity. This is a major issue in Pakistan and its going to take some time to solve. The sheer cost of power will out-weigh the cost of low labour.

I am not contesting any of what you pointed out - my suggestions don't necessarily make economic sense given some of the negative factors in play. However, my suggestions were made in a geo-political context, of India leveraging the resources unique to her to help overcome obstacles in moving the India-Pakistan relationship forward (assuming that both sides will continue to remain deadlocked over the territorial disputes).

 

[Krate M]

Actually India did use the carrot during the MMS government. India played a part in getting Bangladesh to not oppose gsp+ to Pakistan.
The deal was to give India mfn in return.
I haven't understood the "non tariff barriers" that Pakistan talks about. If India has given Pakistan MFN in name only, what is stopping Pakistan from doing the same. Give the MFN in name.
It was going to happen with zardari and then with nawaz, but he told we will give it to the new government. Now the atmosphere has been spoiled. We can all blame the other side, but the truth is given our history it was plain stupid to delay it.