How PTI can win a majority in Sindh

[Tamerlane]

How to deal with the issue of Sindh and how to release Karachi from the grip of the Zardari PPP waderas is one of the most important problems that Pakistan faces today. With Karachi being the most populous city in Pakistan and its industrial and financial center, the city is critical for Pakistan's economic growth.

The country will never be able to realize its economic potential without Karachi being released from the control of the Zardari PPP waderas.

The Pakistani establishment has tried to make life easy for themselves by handing over Karachi to Zardari permanently. No matter who the people of Karachi vote for the city is always controlled by PPP through their provincial assembly seats in rural Sindh. They have no sympathy with the people of Karachi and basically loot the city non-stop, turning it into a dump.

The 18th Amendment to the constitution of Pakistan have handed most administrative powers to the provinces, turning them into semi-autonomous countries, independent of the federal government. The constitution provides for local governments, but this has not been implemented in defiance of the law.

The federal government, therefore, has little power in Karachi, and the local government is toothless. Everything is controlled by the provincial government and that is controlled by the Zardari mafia.

There are many ways of liberating Karachi from PPP.

1. Full Reforms. New constitution in Pakistan that creates 32+ provinces. This way Karachi becomes a separate province.
2. Limited Reforms. Only a few new provinces are created, like South Punjab and Karachi.
3. Karachi is declared a federal territory.
4. PTI wins a majority in the Sindh assembly.

My preferred option is number 1, because the whole country needs fixing, not just Karachi. But assuming that PTI is not bold enough to implement revolutionary changes in Pakistan, there is a way to gain control of the Sindh assembly.

The main way that PPP keeps control over Sindh is by conducting fraudulent censuses.

In the 2017 census Karachi's population was counted as 15 million, when in reality it is closer to 25-30 million.

Population Distribution in Sindh According to Census 2017 (Population of Karachi: Reality vs Expectation) (Downloadable PDF)

If you include Hyderabad then Sindh's urban population is probably 65-70% urban. The seat distribution for the provincial assembly should reflect this if a free and fair census is conducted.

If/when PTI wins the elections and comes back to power one of the first things it should do is to hold a census in Sindh and then force an elections for the Sindh assembly.

PTI is likely to win a majority in the Sindh assembly, and will be able to carry out development activity in both rural Sindh and Karachi.

They should also get rid of the 18th Amendment and create local bodies based on international norms, so that local governments can work properly. For example, in other countries the police is always in the control of local governments, not the provincial government, like in Sindh.

The warlords of Sindh, like Zardari and the PPP waderas will threaten a Sindhudesh movement if they see their power slipping, but that is a separate issue and will need to be dealt with by the army.

 

[WinterFangs]

One word. education

 

[PakAlp]

One word. education

I agree. I don't see any way around it unless the people of Sindh call for a change and reject the old parties. The way for that is through education/awareness.

How to deal with the issue of Sindh and how to release Karachi from the grip of the Zardari PPP waderas is one of the most important problems that Pakistan faces today. With Karachi being the most populous city in Pakistan and its industrial and financial center, the city is critical for Pakistan's economic growth.

The country will never be able to realize its economic potential without Karachi being released from the control of the Zardari PPP waderas.

The Pakistani establishment has tried to make life easy for themselves by handing over Karachi to Zardari permanently. No matter who the people of Karachi vote for the city is always controlled by PPP through their provincial assembly seats in rural Sindh. They have no sympathy with the people of Karachi and basically loot the city non-stop, turning it into a dump.

The 18th Amendment to the constitution of Pakistan have handed most administrative powers to the provinces, turning them into semi-autonomous countries, independent of the federal government. The constitution provides for local governments, but this has not been implemented in defiance of the law.

The federal government, therefore, has little power in Karachi, and the local government is toothless. Everything is controlled by the provincial government and that is controlled by the Zardari mafia.

There are many ways of liberating Karachi from PPP.

1. Full Reforms. New constitution in Pakistan that creates 32+ provinces. This way Karachi becomes a separate province.
2. Limited Reforms. Only a few new provinces are created, like South Punjab and Karachi.
3. Karachi is declared a federal territory.
4. PTI wins a majority in the Sindh assembly.

My preferred option is number 1, because the whole country needs fixing, not just Karachi. But assuming that PTI is not bold enough to implement revolutionary changes in Pakistan, there is a way to gain control of the Sindh assembly.

The main way that PPP keeps control over Sindh is by conducting fraudulent censuses.

In the 2017 census Karachi's population was counted as 15 million, when in reality it is closer to 25-30 million.

Population Distribution in Sindh According to Census 2017 (Population of Karachi: Reality vs Expectation) (Downloadable PDF)

If you include Hyderabad then Sindh's urban population is probably 65-70% urban. The seat distribution for the provincial assembly should reflect this if a free and fair census is conducted.

If/when PTI wins the elections and comes back to power one of the first things it should do is to hold a census in Sindh and then force an elections for the Sindh assembly.

PTI is likely to win a majority in the Sindh assembly, and will be able to carry out development activity in both rural Sindh and Karachi.

They should also get rid of the 18th Amendment and create local bodies based on international norms, so that local governments can work properly. For example, in other countries the police is always in the control of local governments, not the provincial government, like in Sindh.

The warlords of Sindh, like Zardari and the PPP waderas will threaten a Sindhudesh movement if they see their power slipping, but that is a separate issue and will need to be dealt with by the army.

Karachi a federal territory sounds good. The 1st option is the best. Turn 32 big cities in to provinces, they elect own mayors and local government, I don't support provinces based on ethnicities. but will the nationalists of all provinces accept it?

 

[Patriot forever]

I agree. I don't see any way around it unless the people of Sindh call for a change and reject the old parties. The way for that is through education/awareness.

1) The less preferred approach and almost impossible to pull off.
The trick is to get the waderas. Nothing else matters in interior Sindh that much.
People will criticise this policy but that's the easiest way to do it. They are not the type of people pti wants to be associated with. They are just criminals

2) The more realistic approach..
If PTI collaborates with MQM, it can clean sweep Karachi and Hyderabad 85-90% of seats. In interior Sindh PTI can pull off a few provincial seats. GDA has proven to be most reliable ally.

They can all combine bring CM by a hair margin.

Its just my opinion based on estimated seats but I think I did justice with the numbers.

 

[PakAlp]

1) The less preferred approach and almost impossible to pull off.
The trick is to get the waderas. Nothing else matters in interior Sindh that much.
People will criticise this policy but that's the easiest way to do it. They are not the type of people pti wants to be associated with. They are just criminals

2) The more realistic approach..
If PTI collaborates with MQM, it can clean sweep Karachi and Hyderabad 85-90% of seats. In interior Sindh PTI can pull off a few provincial seats. GDA has proven to be most reliable ally.

They can all combine bring CM by a hair margin.

Its just my opinion based on estimated seats but I think I did justice with the numbers.

Mqm project has failed big time. GDA is reliable ally but it includes Pmlq and Sindh nationalist parties so I am suspicious.

If only PSP could replace Mqm then your approach could be successful.

 

[Mirzali Khan]

Will never happen

Sindh and Balochistan (southern) everything is run by waderas and tribal chiefs

 

[Ssan]

Most likely option is 4. However, I don’t think that the current setup with PPP and PmL-N will let a fair census happen.

 

[PradoTLC]

One word. education

one element, but the power structure as it stands today means no one change the status quo.

 

[Sayfullah]

Create 3 Sindhi nationalist parties and give them money so they get popular in rural sindh. Create Sindhi version of ptm minus the army bashing and anti pak narrative.
This will divide ppp’s votes and the new nationalist parties votes. This will lead pti to victory because all middle class educated will vote for pti while all nationalist will be divided amongst many parties. Even tho nationalists are more in number, since they will be divided amongst many parties, the minority educated middle class will be calling the shots hence Imran Khan and Pti will win in sindh.
Once you form government in sindh, start a massive education campaign and end your proxy parties. Pti will dominate sindh then.

 

[Tamerlane]

One word. education

Education can help, but educating people doesn't stop them from voting for ethnic parties. Educated people in Punjab vote for PMLN and educated people in Karachi vote for MQM.

Sindh is the only province in Pakistan where schools teach in Sindhi, not Urdu. It keeps Sindhis from integrating with the rest of the country and even educated Sindhis keep voting for PPP for ethnic purposes.

What I'm trying to say is that the demographics of Sindh has already changed to give it a non-Sindhi majority. The biggest population movement in Pakistan consists of people from all over Pakistan moving to Karachi. More than 500,000 people move to Karachi every year.

Karachi's population by itself is a majority in Sindh if a proper census was conducted. If you add Hyderabad, the urban population is a majority by a wide margin.

If a fair census was conducted and provincial assembly constituencies were allocated based on actual population figures then PTI can win a majority.

The establishment is the biggest supporter of Zardari PPP waderas. They need to be pressurized to give this up for the sake of the country.

P.S. Sindhis should welcome this. Getting PTI in power will help develop all of Sindh and will be beneficial for everyone.

 

[PakAlp]

Create 3 Sindhi nationalist parties and give them money so they get popular in rural sindh. Create Sindhi version of ptm minus the army bashing and anti pak narrative.
This will divide ppp’s votes and the new nationalist parties votes. This will lead pti to victory because all middle class educated will vote for pti while all nationalist will be divided amongst many parties. Even tho nationalists are more in number, since they will be divided amongst many parties, the minority educated middle class will be calling the shots hence Imran Khan and Pti will win in sindh.
Once you form government in sindh, start a massive education campaign and end your proxy parties. Pti will dominate sindh then.

Sounds very dangerous. Similar to how religious extremism is spread to counter nationalist ideas and then later on fight against extremist takes place, then the same extremism talk love and be sweet but deep down are still the same. The day the state becomes weak then they will pop their heads out. Nationalist parties are very dangerous.

Education can help, but educating people doesn't stop them from voting for ethnic parties. Educated people in Punjab vote for PMLN and educated people in Karachi vote for MQM.

Sindh is the only province in Pakistan where schools teach in Sindhi, not Urdu. It keeps Sindhis from integrating with the rest of the country and even educated Sindhis keep voting for PPP for ethnic purposes.

What I'm trying to say is that the demographics of Sindh has already changed to give it a non-Sindhi majority. The biggest population movement in Pakistan consists of people from all over Pakistan moving to Karachi. More than 500,000 people move to Karachi every year.

Karachi's population by itself is a majority in Sindh if a proper census was conducted. If you add Hyderabad, the urban population is a majority by a wide margin.

If a fair census was conducted and provincial assembly constituencies were allocated based on actual population figures then PTI can win a majority.

The establishment is the biggest supporter of Zardari PPP waderas. They need to be pressurized to give this up for the sake of the country.

P.S. Sindhis should welcome this. Getting PTI in power will help develop all of Sindh and will be beneficial for everyone.

Never realised Karachi and Hyderabad are majority Sindh areas by population. True census is the simple way.

Education is the key but what type of education is very important. If educated Punjabis vote for PmlN but the same people then request the party to stop corrupt practises, build schools, hospitals, development then its fine because PmlN has become Pti. So if education can change people for the better of the nation then slowly all parties will become hard working because their educated voters have high demands.

 

[Sinnerman108]

How to deal with the issue of Sindh and how to release Karachi from the grip of the Zardari PPP waderas is one of the most important problems that Pakistan faces today. With Karachi being the most populous city in Pakistan and its industrial and financial center, the city is critical for Pakistan's economic growth.

The country will never be able to realize its economic potential without Karachi being released from the control of the Zardari PPP waderas.

The Pakistani establishment has tried to make life easy for themselves by handing over Karachi to Zardari permanently. No matter who the people of Karachi vote for the city is always controlled by PPP through their provincial assembly seats in rural Sindh. They have no sympathy with the people of Karachi and basically loot the city non-stop, turning it into a dump.

The 18th Amendment to the constitution of Pakistan have handed most administrative powers to the provinces, turning them into semi-autonomous countries, independent of the federal government. The constitution provides for local governments, but this has not been implemented in defiance of the law.

The federal government, therefore, has little power in Karachi, and the local government is toothless. Everything is controlled by the provincial government and that is controlled by the Zardari mafia.

There are many ways of liberating Karachi from PPP.

1. Full Reforms. New constitution in Pakistan that creates 32+ provinces. This way Karachi becomes a separate province.
2. Limited Reforms. Only a few new provinces are created, like South Punjab and Karachi.
3. Karachi is declared a federal territory.
4. PTI wins a majority in the Sindh assembly.

My preferred option is number 1, because the whole country needs fixing, not just Karachi. But assuming that PTI is not bold enough to implement revolutionary changes in Pakistan, there is a way to gain control of the Sindh assembly.

The main way that PPP keeps control over Sindh is by conducting fraudulent censuses.

In the 2017 census Karachi's population was counted as 15 million, when in reality it is closer to 25-30 million.

Population Distribution in Sindh According to Census 2017 (Population of Karachi: Reality vs Expectation) (Downloadable PDF)

If you include Hyderabad then Sindh's urban population is probably 65-70% urban. The seat distribution for the provincial assembly should reflect this if a free and fair census is conducted.

If/when PTI wins the elections and comes back to power one of the first things it should do is to hold a census in Sindh and then force an elections for the Sindh assembly.

PTI is likely to win a majority in the Sindh assembly, and will be able to carry out development activity in both rural Sindh and Karachi.

They should also get rid of the 18th Amendment and create local bodies based on international norms, so that local governments can work properly. For example, in other countries the police is always in the control of local governments, not the provincial government, like in Sindh.

The warlords of Sindh, like Zardari and the PPP waderas will threaten a Sindhudesh movement if they see their power slipping, but that is a separate issue and will need to be dealt with by the army.

To win Majority in any province, PTI needs to get up close and personal with the ordinary poorest of poor people.
They are the ones with a reason for change,
the wealthy would like their position to continue and the same system to remain.

PTI has to follow up on the likes of Nazim Jhokio and others,
and make the sheep understand who the wolves are,
and then steer the sheep in the right direction

 

[Tamerlane]

In Sindh assembly PPP has 99 seats and PTI GDA mqm ji tlp has 69 seats and government bananay k liye 81 seats chahiyeen sirf 12 seats kam hain

All it will take to get the extra seats is proper demarcation of constituencies based on actual population numbers.

 

[FuturePAF]

Sounds very dangerous. Similar to how religious extremism is spread to counter nationalist ideas and then later on fight against extremist takes place, then the same extremism talk love and be sweet but deep down are still the same. The day the state becomes weak then they will pop their heads out. Nationalist parties are very dangerous.


Never realised Karachi and Hyderabad are majority Sindh areas by population. True census is the simple way.

Education is the key but what type of education is very important. If educated Punjabis vote for PmlN but the same people then request the party to stop corrupt practises, build schools, hospitals, development then its fine because PmlN has become Pti. So if education can change people for the better of the nation then slowly all parties will become hard working because their educated voters have high demands.

Exactly, supporting ethnic-nationalist parties is a receipe for disaster, and I’ll leave it there as not to spell out the dangers anymore then have been said. It’s also what foreign adversaries of Pakistan would like; dividing the nation up along ethnic lines and not differences of politics based on ideas.

Further, the best way is an open and fair census, and reallocation of seats based on the population. Any other proposal leaves open the possibility of the entrenched parties finding “legal” means to reverse the changes.

But this has to also be a policy platform of PTI nationwide, requiring redistribution of resources to areas of large population which have been relatively underserved in the past, such as South Punjab, as far as I understand (I’m open to being corrected if I’m wrong).

This is not to say, the shift in the budgets should be done in a dramatic way, as not to disrupt services people depend on, which would spark a backlash, but a 2-3 year gradual phase out and redistribution to correct for the ways of the past.

 

[WotTen]

In Sindh assembly PPP has 99 seats and PTI GDA mqm ji tlp has 69 seats and government bananay k liye 81 seats chahiyeen sirf 12 seats kam hain

If there's ONE thing we have learned this month, it is that political alliances are dangerous and unreliable. MQM is notoriously backstabbing.

PTI needs to win a clean sweep majority and then implement option 1. I would go even further. We need 100 provinces. Small provinces. The smaller the better so that there is local accountability.