Featured Pakistan approaches Riyadh for renewal of $3.2b oil facility

[Ace of Spades]

An agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia for provision of $3.2 billion worth of oil on deferred payments per annum has expired two months ago and decision about its renewal remains pending with Riyadh, sources told The Express Tribune.

The $3.2 billion Saudi oil facility was part of the $6.2-billion Saudi Arabian package announced in November 2018 to ease Pakistan’s external sector woes. Pakistan has already prematurely returned $1 billion Saudi loan - four months ahead of its repayment period.

Sources said that Pakistan could also return $2 billion remaining Saudi cash loan, subject to availability of similar facility from China.

The agreement over $3 billion cash support and $3.2 billion oil facility per annum had the provision of renewal for two more years.

The sources said that Saudi Arabia has not provided the oil on deferred payments since May this year. The budget estimates suggested that the government was hoping to receive minimum $1 billion worth of oil in fiscal year 2020-21, which started from July.

A spokesman of the Petroleum Division has also confirmed the development about expiry of the facility.

“The agreement expired in May 2020,” said Sajid Qazi, the spokesman of the Petroleum Division. The spokesman further stated that the efforts were being made by the Finance Division to renew the facility.

The spokesman said that the response from Saudi Arabian government was awaited over Pakistan’s request to further extend the facility, in line with the provision of the agreement.

The Ministry of Finance did not respond to The Express Tribune’s question about the updated status of Pakistan’s request. The State Bank of Pakistan and the Ministry of Finance have not yet taken the media into confidence about these developments.

(So from more than two months request isn't entertained)

In May last year, Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh had announced through his twitter handle that “from July 1, 2019 KSA is activating the deferred payment for petroleum products facility of $275 million per month amounting to $3.2 billion per year for three years”.

Saudi Arabia had rolled over its $3 billion loan from between November 2019 to January 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report. The IMF has termed the rollovers of Saudi Arabian, United Arab Emirates and Chinese assistance critical for Pakistan’s debt sustainability.

Pakistan’s repayment of $1 billion Saudi Arabian loan after borrowing from China and expiry of the oil facility underscores challenging relations between two Islamic nations.

Pakistan was paying 3.2% interest on Saudi Arabia loan. It has now arranged $1 billion loan from State Administration Foreign Exchange (SAFE) of China at London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) plus 1%, which at current rates comes to around 1.18% due to near zero interest rates in the world.

The Saudi oil facility that had been secured after hectic backdoor lobbying with the royal family remained underutilised in the last fiscal year. The $769 million deferred payment facility on supply of oil was availed from Saudi government, according to the spokesman of the Petroleum Division.

The Saudi facility faced roadblocks since the beginning. Initially, both the countries had a plan to make the facility operational from January 2019. But it actually became operational from July last year.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) had also announced a $6.2 billion package for Pakistan in December 2018, including $3.2 billion oil facility. But later on, the UAE reduced its financial assistance to $2 billion and also shelved the plan to give $3.2 billion oil facility on deferred payments.

The UAE and Saudi Arabian oil credit facilities were part of the $14.5-billion package agreed with three friendly countries, including China. After coming into power, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government faced an immediate challenge of filling a $12 billion hole, which the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government had left behind due to a widening current account deficit.

Under the Saudi agreement, the Pak-Arab Refinery Company (Parco) and the National Refinery Limited (NRL) were required to procure crude oil from Saudi Aramco Product Trading Company. Similarly, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) were supposed to procure petroleum products and LNG from the Saudi company, respectively.

The two countries inked a financing agreement for the import of petroleum products, crude oil and LNG on February 17, 2019 during the Saudi crown prince’s Islamabad visit.

Pakistan faces challenging situation at a time when its IMF programme also remains technically suspended for the last five months. Returning of Saudi loans and expiry of the oil facility could strain the official reserves of the central bank, which are built purely by taking loans.

@Mangus Ortus Novem it's all coming together; like small pieces of puzzle. Interesting times ahead. If you recall, i kept saying keep an eye on GCC, the pressure will come from there to rescue India... and here it comes. Ladakh fiasco is going on from last two months... china making deal with Iran...and now Pakistan reacting.

Pakistan really needs to plan ahead; the incompetency of foreign office will be very fatal at this point in time.

 

[The Accountant]

You cannot clear mess of decades in just 2 years. We lost leverage over GCC in past few decades and no one dare to stop it. PTI government tried to amend it but India now have too much influence on them.

Furthermore, in diplomacy it should not be a zero sum game. Loan is our weakness and our foreign policy is weak due to loan so rather than we draft our foriegn policy based on loan we should focus more on economy to egt out of debt trap so that we can make an independent Pakistan eccentric foreign policy.

An agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia for provision of $3.2 billion worth of oil on deferred payments per annum has expired two months ago and decision about its renewal remains pending with Riyadh, sources told The Express Tribune.

The $3.2 billion Saudi oil facility was part of the $6.2-billion Saudi Arabian package announced in November 2018 to ease Pakistan’s external sector woes. Pakistan has already prematurely returned $1 billion Saudi loan - four months ahead of its repayment period.

Sources said that Pakistan could also return $2 billion remaining Saudi cash loan, subject to availability of similar facility from China.

The agreement over $3 billion cash support and $3.2 billion oil facility per annum had the provision of renewal for two more years.

The sources said that Saudi Arabia has not provided the oil on deferred payments since May this year. The budget estimates suggested that the government was hoping to receive minimum $1 billion worth of oil in fiscal year 2020-21, which started from July.

A spokesman of the Petroleum Division has also confirmed the development about expiry of the facility.

“The agreement expired in May 2020,” said Sajid Qazi, the spokesman of the Petroleum Division. The spokesman further stated that the efforts were being made by the Finance Division to renew the facility.

The spokesman said that the response from Saudi Arabian government was awaited over Pakistan’s request to further extend the facility, in line with the provision of the agreement.

The Ministry of Finance did not respond to The Express Tribune’s question about the updated status of Pakistan’s request. The State Bank of Pakistan and the Ministry of Finance have not yet taken the media into confidence about these developments.

(So from more than two months request isn't entertained)

In May last year, Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh had announced through his twitter handle that “from July 1, 2019 KSA is activating the deferred payment for petroleum products facility of $275 million per month amounting to $3.2 billion per year for three years”.

Saudi Arabia had rolled over its $3 billion loan from between November 2019 to January 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report. The IMF has termed the rollovers of Saudi Arabian, United Arab Emirates and Chinese assistance critical for Pakistan’s debt sustainability.

Pakistan’s repayment of $1 billion Saudi Arabian loan after borrowing from China and expiry of the oil facility underscores challenging relations between two Islamic nations.

Pakistan was paying 3.2% interest on Saudi Arabia loan. It has now arranged $1 billion loan from State Administration Foreign Exchange (SAFE) of China at London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) plus 1%, which at current rates comes to around 1.18% due to near zero interest rates in the world.

The Saudi oil facility that had been secured after hectic backdoor lobbying with the royal family remained underutilised in the last fiscal year. The $769 million deferred payment facility on supply of oil was availed from Saudi government, according to the spokesman of the Petroleum Division.

The Saudi facility faced roadblocks since the beginning. Initially, both the countries had a plan to make the facility operational from January 2019. But it actually became operational from July last year.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) had also announced a $6.2 billion package for Pakistan in December 2018, including $3.2 billion oil facility. But later on, the UAE reduced its financial assistance to $2 billion and also shelved the plan to give $3.2 billion oil facility on deferred payments.

The UAE and Saudi Arabian oil credit facilities were part of the $14.5-billion package agreed with three friendly countries, including China. After coming into power, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government faced an immediate challenge of filling a $12 billion hole, which the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government had left behind due to a widening current account deficit.

Under the Saudi agreement, the Pak-Arab Refinery Company (Parco) and the National Refinery Limited (NRL) were required to procure crude oil from Saudi Aramco Product Trading Company. Similarly, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) were supposed to procure petroleum products and LNG from the Saudi company, respectively.

The two countries inked a financing agreement for the import of petroleum products, crude oil and LNG on February 17, 2019 during the Saudi crown prince’s Islamabad visit.

Pakistan faces challenging situation at a time when its IMF programme also remains technically suspended for the last five months. Returning of Saudi loans and expiry of the oil facility could strain the official reserves of the central bank, which are built purely by taking loans.

@Mangus Ortus Novem it's all coming together; like small pieces of puzzle. Interesting times ahead. If you recall, i kept saying keep an eye on GCC, the pressure will come from there to rescue India... and here it comes. Ladakh fiasco is going on from last two months... china making deal with Iran...and now Pakistan reacting.

Pakistan really needs to plan ahead; the incompetency of foreign office will be very fatal at this point in time.

 

[Protest_again]

It's more to do with China making oil deal with Iran. And Saudi would need India the world's third largest oil consuming market for their oil exports. Hence one can understand their reluctance to entertain Kashmir at the OIC.

Shah Mahmood Quereshi is an emotional man, unfit for foreign office. He was made to resign office even before on the account of release of Raymond Davis under PPP. Instead of understanding the dynamics and try to influence Saudi in the back ground, he called out in the open one of the most trusted friend of Pakistan.

I would rate Saudi more a friend to Pakistan than even China which is in it for its self interest.

 

[Max]

Not a good choice.

We have to put our house in order, China will fill the gap easily, if they feel we are doing what is necessary.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Thank you to Saudi Arabia for the help appreciated it

 

[xyx007]

It is all pressure building tactics on Pakistan and delivered a forceful critique of CPEC. Rather than seeking to harmonize U.S. and Chinese development efforts, the Trump team now seems intent on highlighting their differences in a bid to raise Pakistani awareness and stir skepticism about China's aid offerings.
This wording came out from the U.S. ambassador's words, "After four years of CPEC, people in Pakistan are beginning to ask tough questions about what kind of deals their prior government struck with Communist China and what Pakistan really gains."
We also see Washington's policy shift as articulated in the 2017 National Security Strategy. The 2018 National Defense Strategy documents reflect a toughened line on great power competition, especially about China.
We all understand how china deploying significant accomplishments for Pakistan, which has been challenged by a challenging business environment, contentious politics, and long-standing domestic and regional security threats.
Chinese and Pakistani officials responded to the tougher U.S. line. Beijing was especially keen to refute U.S. officials' arguments that China had ensnared Pakistan in debt traps. Now, the U.S. is playing the same politics on CPEC via his allies(Saudi, UAE Japan ) offered lollipop to us are trying U.S.-backed International Monetary Fund and lollipop offered from Saudi Shezada force Pakistan to repay on a strict timeline if doing so would harm Pakistan's interests. It is not new U.S. pressure building tactics for us, and we all mentally well prepared what are the challenges ahead standing with the Chinese side.
There is also one news circle around that Chinese is helping Saudis for building N-bombs https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/us/politics/us-examines-saudi-nuclear-program.html. Of course, Saudis can't even handle their lazy and inefficient military and now tackle this toy in their haram. It is just a perception war for Iran against china and an effort to sabotage the 600B$ Chinese investment. For us, This is sixth-generation warfare, and we should know now at this point for 72 years what is and wasn't the best interest for Pakistan and come out from personal politics for personal gains and come out from this mindset and should think as a one page nation what best options are available for Pakistan in current evolving geopolitics situation.
Pakistan Zindabad.

 

[bafxet]

You cannot clear mess of decades in just 2 years. We lost leverage over GCC in past few decades and no one dear to dtop it. PTI government tried to amend it but India now have too much influence on them.

Furthermore, in diplomacy it should not be a zero sum game. Loan is our weakness and our foreign policy is weak due to loan so rather than we draft our foriegn policy based on loan we should focus more on economy to egt out of debt trap so that we can make an independent Pakistan eccentric foreign policy.

Saudis have always come for the rescue of Pakistan. This time I think that it more about there own financial situation which previous years took a big hit owing to Yemen war, Shale oil and this year COVID-19.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Here is my take , Saudia has helped Pakistan, as a Pakistani I am thankful to Saudi Arabia for their help
Of course it was a temporary measure and if the period is over it is fair to conclude the offer and move back to traditional terms of purchase

There is no agenda or motive it was a temporary measure

It was a appreciated gesture to see our brotherly nation Saudi Arabia help us out

• Saudia has always supported Pakistan on Kashmir Issue
• Saudia has been home to many Pakistani workers
• It is home to 2 holy mosques

Hopefully thru dialog I am sure the two nations can determine the next steps to boost our understanding to next level to bring economic gains to both nations


Pakistan has valued relations with all Muslim Nations equally


If the credit deal is enhanced it would be wonderful it will be discussed thru dialog


As for FATF/IMF

• Pakistani Parliament has passed massive laws to implemented digitization of all transactions in country

Pakistan-China relations

• We all know CPEC is the future
• However Gwadar is open to all nations as a international trade hub

 

[The Accountant]

Saudis have always come for the rescue of Pakistan. This time I think that it more about there own financial situation which previous years took a big hit owing to Yemen war, Shale oil and this year COVID-19.

This could be a reason, but its not like Saudis always came to our rescue as in past couple of decade saudia has other partners and preferences

 

[Ace of Spades]

@Ace of Spades

Let us try to disect/deconstruct.. in detached, dispassionate manner... freezing all our biases..

Statecraft.

PakStatecraft is finding its feet after a long coma... so the wobbles are to be expected.

Now...the matter at hand as you correctly framed it... let us Contextualise this!

Deconstructing OIC:

ArabLeague's Oil Embargo made long lines for gasoline in the CombinedWest led by the US...with clear economic consequences... King Faisal got assasinated... the rest is History.

Hence, it was imparative for the US led CombinedWest to NEVER allow any actions by the Core Oil Producers to EVER use Oil as Weapon...

The OIC was/is a US PolicyInstruement to allow the so-called IslamicWorld to vent its Frustrations and be resinged to its Impotence.

As brought to attention of Paks before...once again... the US was the Force behind hiring and positioning the good Indians in the GCC... thus keeping the ImpericalGeoConstruct aka India afloat..

This was the same PolicyInstruement which has been allotting generous Visas to the good Indians in the US...

When the KosherAfghanJihad ended ... we all know what happened after that.

The OIC becoming more of free-lunch-shop than a talk-shop was a natural development.

The ones who gives Free-Lunch also demands something in return.

Therefore, we cann't allow ourselves being surprised or disappointed by the OIC... it would only result in disappoinment and more...
Since, the foundation of any expectation from OIC would be based on pure Emotion than the Ground-Reality!

The Net Comprehensive Strength of OIC is such that it will never be allowed to function as UnifiedPlatform... because that would upset the Overal Global Power Architecture and the Long Term Plans.

Great/SuperPowers ONLY work for their own interests and their own interests alone... rest is just CannonFodder or PolicyInstruements.

The US has been trying to get the good Indians into all types of Fora to enhance its position for sometime now... from NSG to OIC!

When last time the OIC invited Indian FM Pakistan took a firm stand... simply, because we had NO other Choice left...

Indian incorporation into OIC will solve many strategic headaches for not only India but also for the US.

With growing Sino-US ColdWar 3.0 dynamics .. the US needs to prop up India not only militarily but also diplomatically and economically.

Therefore, we do see a DirectedEffort to invest in India by the GCC... the force behind it is not only possible RoI for the GCC Investments but larger US Strategic Calculus.

India dumping Iran and joining the GCC on strategic level is also a US Construct...

Please, do see that PetroDollar Recycling and FinancialCapitalism are mutually dependent... incorporation of India into the exisiting Financial Architecture is of Vital Importance to the US.

Please, do note that it was the US and India who votted against SDR while the Sino-Rus Axis were pushing for SDR dominance @ps3linux

Seeing OIC anything other than a PetroDollar Component/PolicyInstruement will cause Strategic Blindness.

As long as OIC Core stays committed to the Agreed DollarSystem... red carpets.. otherwise... well we do know already!

Now this Sino-Iranian Deal is not new ..this has been in the offing long before Pres. Xi visited Tehran and expressed it.

Pakistan is a labour exporter to the OIC Core and due to Our Own Economic Mismanagement and extremely poor Statecraft of past two decades... well... Begger's Bowl... Free-Lunches come at a price.

EconomicTerrorism in Pakistan, MoneyLaundering and then the Investments by the EconomicTerrorists ... made our situation worse!

Can we Blame others?

Regardless, OIC is what it is. And That is That!

We can jump high and low... based on Expectations or Common ReligeousEthos won't make a dent to the PolicyInstruement that OIC is... and in its current form the OIC shall continue to serve this purpose.

This is the very SimpleReason that there is NO meeting by the OIC for the plight of PakKashmiris in IoJK or Collective Condemnation of the IndianFacistRegime.

Sooner we accept these FACTS the better!

OIC is a US Construct and shall remain so.

The growing Disconnect between Turkiye and GCC and IranianDynamics... is essentially making OIC making more deader than dead for any Collective Action. It shall only grow further...with Tukiye n Egypt squaring off!

Another OIC in the Making:

The Sino-American Last Tango is accelerating faster than expected...at least by the BemusedObserver.

This Acceleration has deep implications for the so-called IslamicWorld ...including the Core of OIC!

ASEAN including China is the EconomicGrowthEngine for the GlobalEconomy.

And if we add EmergingMarkets of Pakistan and Turkiye then the depth and dimensions of the GrowthPotential changes.

ASEAN is so deeply integerated with the ChineseEconomy that pricing it away is now not possible for the US led Quad.

EU desperately needs this GrowthEngine to come out of Deep Deflation.

Now this KL Conference was a Chinese attempt to Construct another OIC Core for its own GeoStrategic Goals... the Sino-IranianDeal needs to be seen through broader lens than just narrow ones.

SCO has already incorporated the CentralAsian 'Muslim' countries into the Sino-Russian Framework and they shall remain there. Further incorparation of Iran and Tukiye and later on ASEAN will grow.

With Sino-Russian trade increasingly settled in their national valuta is indictive of this Acceleration...which at this stage is nuanced and calculated..NOT Reactive.

Eurasia combined with ASEAN is both the Consumer and Producer of Oil/Gas/Uranium.

IF the Sino-Rus Axis succeeds in turning this into Consolidated EconomicShpere with Yuan/DigitalYuan as Trading Vechile then the effects will be not mere Historic but Paradigm Shattering.

Smack in the Middle is Pakistan... Young in population and blessed with PivotalPosition in the Eurasian Landmass...

The recent PakState PolicyPositions made public by the esteem and colourful SMQ or the repayment of loans earlier than required with the Help of China ... this tells us the direction of the Flow!

Russia's increasing muslim population or expanding StrategicFootprint in ME and NorthAfrica or the recent OilWar between KSA and Russia..

Or Russo-Turk rivalary in NorthAfrica/Syria... the Game for Oil/Gas resources and then 2023 is now almost here...

The Chinese investments in 'Islamic' countries and the need for BRI to go into a higher gear along with DigitalBRI ...

When we actually look at the EurasianMap then we can see with Clarity that a New OIC with a New Core is extremely valued by both Russia and China as it neatly binds the SCO, EurasianEconomicBlock and Decoupling with $.

Mr. Putin's defence of Islam of on regular basis is, once again, indictive of the an emerging and supported New Core of the New OIC.

Now that the IndianState has officially joined the AntiChina Quad and Galwan is active... India will be forced further to embrace the US... and in return the US PolicyInstruement old OIC will continue to shield India from MuslimAnguish for its CrimesAgainstHumanity in IoJK or increasing brutalities against the Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan.

BD and SL already embeded with BRI and BD showing signs of taking a positive view of Sino-Pak Axis!
Thus BD, with its large muslims population, shall be courted further to join the New OIC.


The above Deconstruction might appear ColdHearted but then the world we have been living in has been nothing else!

PakStatecraft's Choices and Consquences:

Pakistan has been Tounge Living Among Teeth for past 73yrs... with mixed bag of results... We can lament or wail all we want, it is what it is... and we have to Deal with it!

Pakistan's Choices:

• IMF
• FATF
• DebtServicing
• IPPs
• KhooniVirus
• Rent-a-KhooniLiberal
• Rent-a-MullhaMaffia
• MarasiMedia
  
• EconomicTerrorist still at large
• Colonial System of Governance
• FBR a liability
• Permanent Headache of Kabulistan
• IndianTerrorism in Pakistan
• Political-Instability
• Economic Recession and Inflation

The above is the Shardes which are piercing us and walk we must on these nails...

All of this is the ConfiningLandscape in which Pakistan is to make StrategicChoices:

• Pakistan has made the StrategicChoice of BRI i.e CPEC
• Pakistan has made ForeignPolicy choice of aligning with PRC and dovetail PakEconomicDiplomacy including focus on Africa
• RetaliationDoctorine towards Kabulistan and India
• NoMoreWars for someone else
• Re-engaging BD and SL
• More focus on ASEAN for trade and investments in Pakistan's SEZs
• High profile and consisten exposing of HindutvaFacism
• Taking a coordinating approach towards IoJK resultion with China
• SMQ giving last chance to Old OIC to act Now or Loose Pakistan Forever
• PakMilitaryDiplomacy to try to act as a bridge between Iran and KSA
• Facilitating AmericanExit from Kabulistan
• Accepting that Regional Powers i.e Russia, China and Iran are stakeholders in AfghanPeace
• Treating GCC and Turkiye as equal partners
• Ruling out any engagement with India which is for show and not concrete results
• Keeping the Voice of PakKashmiris alive...regardless, whether its enough or not
• Using Yuan as payment vehicle with the Chinese firms
• Standing with China on HK, Ladakh and SouthChinaSea
• Engaging Russia in the context of Eurasia and not through Indian angle
• Building Dams with the Chinese Investments
• Offering CPEC infrastructure to all CARs
• Accelerating oil/gas exploration within Pakistan
• Slowly moving into CPEC Phase2

Consequences for Pakistan:

• FATF sword will hang for a while
• IMF will do IMF on Pakistan
• EconomicTerrorists will continue to invest in unstability within Pakistan
• IndianTerrorism will become more focused on CPEC/China-in-Pakistan
• GCC will extert all the pressure possible for Pakistan to comply with their strategic objectives
• Pakistanis might be deported from GCC (this will be the extreme measure but cann't be ruled out)
• Pakistan's Ultimatum to OIC will not result in anything Condusive to Eleviate Plight of PakKashmiris in IoJK
• Pakistan can see the Oil Facility withdrawn if Pakistan continues with Policy outlined by SMQ
• The GCC $$ in SBP could be withdrawn
• The possible Investments in Pakistan from GCC could be withdrawn
• Should Pakistan invite OIC FMs on its own... only a few will turn up
• When Pakistan Officially becomes the Core of the New OIC the relationships with GCC will take a deep hit
• The US will keep Pakistan under pressure through all of its PolicyInstruements to give India a breathing space as Frontline state against China
• To keep a Balanced and Equal level relationship with Iran and GCC or Turkiye and GCC will be a Monumental Task for PakDiplomacy
• Price of Not abandoning CPEC or Sino-Pak Axis will have trade and diplomatic consequences from the US led CombinedWest in the short term

In short to become Pakistan, Pakistan shall have to pay dear price... accute pain in the short term.. more Independence in the Long Term!

All of this depends if Pakistan can put its house in Order... from Economy to Judiciary to Governance to Education to Rapid Industrialisation...

Every Choice exacts an Equal Price!

@Ace of Spades it is The Momentum of History in Acceleration ... ThirdActorDynamics in Great ME from Med to Gulf to SouthChinaSea ... nothing exists on its own in Geopolitics!


Mangus

@Arsalan

Brilliant!! Nicely put. Someone print it and send a copy of it to foreign office...

So far Pakistan doesn't have much leverage on GCC, however, along with political alignment, it's important Pakistan already start working toward the possible scenario which you have rightly mentioned where the economic hit will be coming. Expulsion of Pakistani labor force from GCC and economic assistance. Second, Pakistan must work towards an exclusive block comprising of military+economic+political factors. Pakistan doesn't need another OIC, but rather an economic+military+political union.

Negotiation can be done from position of strength. And Pakistan's strengths are neither economic or political but rather military. So Pakistan needs to raise the stakes for GCC, if they go outright against Pakistan...

 

[Blacklight]

@Ace of Spades

Let us try to disect/deconstruct.. in detached, dispassionate manner... freezing all our biases..

Statecraft.

PakStatecraft is finding its feet after a long coma... so the wobbles are to be expected.

Now...the matter at hand as you correctly framed it... let us Contextualise this!

Deconstructing OIC:

ArabLeague's Oil Embargo made long lines for gasoline in the CombinedWest led by the US...with clear economic consequences... King Faisal got assasinated... the rest is History.

Hence, it was imparative for the US led CombinedWest to NEVER allow any actions by the Core Oil Producers to EVER use Oil as Weapon...

The OIC was/is a US PolicyInstruement to allow the so-called IslamicWorld to vent its Frustrations and be resinged to its Impotence.

As brought to attention of Paks before...once again... the US was the Force behind hiring and positioning the good Indians in the GCC... thus keeping the ImpericalGeoConstruct aka India afloat..

This was the same PolicyInstruement which has been allotting generous Visas to the good Indians in the US...

When the KosherAfghanJihad ended ... we all know what happened after that.

The OIC becoming more of free-lunch-shop than a talk-shop was a natural development.

The ones who gives Free-Lunch also demands something in return.

Therefore, we cann't allow ourselves being surprised or disappointed by the OIC... it would only result in disappoinment and more...
Since, the foundation of any expectation from OIC would be based on pure Emotion than the Ground-Reality!

The Net Comprehensive Strength of OIC is such that it will never be allowed to function as UnifiedPlatform... because that would upset the Overal Global Power Architecture and the Long Term Plans.

Great/SuperPowers ONLY work for their own interests and their own interests alone... rest is just CannonFodder or PolicyInstruements.

The US has been trying to get the good Indians into all types of Fora to enhance its position for sometime now... from NSG to OIC!

When last time the OIC invited Indian FM Pakistan took a firm stand... simply, because we had NO other Choice left...

Indian incorporation into OIC will solve many strategic headaches for not only India but also for the US.

With growing Sino-US ColdWar 3.0 dynamics .. the US needs to prop up India not only militarily but also diplomatically and economically.

Therefore, we do see a DirectedEffort to invest in India by the GCC... the force behind it is not only possible RoI for the GCC Investments but larger US Strategic Calculus.

India dumping Iran and joining the GCC on strategic level is also a US Construct...

Please, do see that PetroDollar Recycling and FinancialCapitalism are mutually dependent... incorporation of India into the exisiting Financial Architecture is of Vital Importance to the US.

Please, do note that it was the US and India who votted against SDR while the Sino-Rus Axis were pushing for SDR dominance @ps3linux

Seeing OIC anything other than a PetroDollar Component/PolicyInstruement will cause Strategic Blindness.

As long as OIC Core stays committed to the Agreed DollarSystem... red carpets.. otherwise... well we do know already!

Now this Sino-Iranian Deal is not new ..this has been in the offing long before Pres. Xi visited Tehran and expressed it.

Pakistan is a labour exporter to the OIC Core and due to Our Own Economic Mismanagement and extremely poor Statecraft of past two decades... well... Begger's Bowl... Free-Lunches come at a price.

EconomicTerrorism in Pakistan, MoneyLaundering and then the Investments by the EconomicTerrorists ... made our situation worse!

Can we Blame others?

Regardless, OIC is what it is. And That is That!

We can jump high and low... based on Expectations or Common ReligeousEthos won't make a dent to the PolicyInstruement that OIC is... and in its current form the OIC shall continue to serve this purpose.

This is the very SimpleReason that there is NO meeting by the OIC for the plight of PakKashmiris in IoJK or Collective Condemnation of the IndianFacistRegime.

Sooner we accept these FACTS the better!

OIC is a US Construct and shall remain so.

The growing Disconnect between Turkiye and GCC and IranianDynamics... is essentially making OIC making more deader than dead for any Collective Action. It shall only grow further...with Tukiye n Egypt squaring off!

Another OIC in the Making:

The Sino-American Last Tango is accelerating faster than expected...at least by the BemusedObserver.

This Acceleration has deep implications for the so-called IslamicWorld ...including the Core of OIC!

ASEAN including China is the EconomicGrowthEngine for the GlobalEconomy.

And if we add EmergingMarkets of Pakistan and Turkiye then the depth and dimensions of the GrowthPotential changes.

ASEAN is so deeply integerated with the ChineseEconomy that pricing it away is now not possible for the US led Quad.

EU desperately needs this GrowthEngine to come out of Deep Deflation.

Now this KL Conference was a Chinese attempt to Construct another OIC Core for its own GeoStrategic Goals... the Sino-IranianDeal needs to be seen through broader lens than just narrow ones.

SCO has already incorporated the CentralAsian 'Muslim' countries into the Sino-Russian Framework and they shall remain there. Further incorparation of Iran and Tukiye and later on ASEAN will grow.

With Sino-Russian trade increasingly settled in their national valuta is indictive of this Acceleration...which at this stage is nuanced and calculated..NOT Reactive.

Eurasia combined with ASEAN is both the Consumer and Producer of Oil/Gas/Uranium.

IF the Sino-Rus Axis succeeds in turning this into Consolidated EconomicShpere with Yuan/DigitalYuan as Trading Vechile then the effects will be not mere Historic but Paradigm Shattering.

Smack in the Middle is Pakistan... Young in population and blessed with PivotalPosition in the Eurasian Landmass...

The recent PakState PolicyPositions made public by the esteem and colourful SMQ or the repayment of loans earlier than required with the Help of China ... this tells us the direction of the Flow!

Russia's increasing muslim population or expanding StrategicFootprint in ME and NorthAfrica or the recent OilWar between KSA and Russia..

Or Russo-Turk rivalary in NorthAfrica/Syria... the Game for Oil/Gas resources and then 2023 is now almost here...

The Chinese investments in 'Islamic' countries and the need for BRI to go into a higher gear along with DigitalBRI ...

When we actually look at the EurasianMap then we can see with Clarity that a New OIC with a New Core is extremely valued by both Russia and China as it neatly binds the SCO, EurasianEconomicBlock and Decoupling with $.

Mr. Putin's defence of Islam of on regular basis is, once again, indictive of the an emerging and supported New Core of the New OIC.

Now that the IndianState has officially joined the AntiChina Quad and Galwan is active... India will be forced further to embrace the US... and in return the US PolicyInstruement old OIC will continue to shield India from MuslimAnguish for its CrimesAgainstHumanity in IoJK or increasing brutalities against the Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan.

BD and SL already embeded with BRI and BD showing signs of taking a positive view of Sino-Pak Axis!
Thus BD, with its large muslims population, shall be courted further to join the New OIC.


The above Deconstruction might appear ColdHearted but then the world we have been living in has been nothing else!

PakStatecraft's Choices and Consquences:

Pakistan has been Tounge Living Among Teeth for past 73yrs... with mixed bag of results... We can lament or wail all we want, it is what it is... and we have to Deal with it!

Pakistan's Choices:

• IMF
• FATF
• DebtServicing
• IPPs
• KhooniVirus
• Rent-a-KhooniLiberal
• Rent-a-MullhaMaffia
• MarasiMedia
  
• EconomicTerrorist still at large
• Colonial System of Governance
• FBR a liability
• Permanent Headache of Kabulistan
• IndianTerrorism in Pakistan
• Political-Instability
• Economic Recession and Inflation

The above is the Shardes which are piercing us and walk we must on these nails...

All of this is the ConfiningLandscape in which Pakistan is to make StrategicChoices:

• Pakistan has made the StrategicChoice of BRI i.e CPEC
• Pakistan has made ForeignPolicy choice of aligning with PRC and dovetail PakEconomicDiplomacy including focus on Africa
• RetaliationDoctorine towards Kabulistan and India
• NoMoreWars for someone else
• Re-engaging BD and SL
• More focus on ASEAN for trade and investments in Pakistan's SEZs
• High profile and consisten exposing of HindutvaFacism
• Taking a coordinating approach towards IoJK resultion with China
• SMQ giving last chance to Old OIC to act Now or Loose Pakistan Forever
• PakMilitaryDiplomacy to try to act as a bridge between Iran and KSA
• Facilitating AmericanExit from Kabulistan
• Accepting that Regional Powers i.e Russia, China and Iran are stakeholders in AfghanPeace
• Treating GCC and Turkiye as equal partners
• Ruling out any engagement with India which is for show and not concrete results
• Keeping the Voice of PakKashmiris alive...regardless, whether its enough or not
• Using Yuan as payment vehicle with the Chinese firms
• Standing with China on HK, Ladakh and SouthChinaSea
• Engaging Russia in the context of Eurasia and not through Indian angle
• Building Dams with the Chinese Investments
• Offering CPEC infrastructure to all CARs
• Accelerating oil/gas exploration within Pakistan
• Slowly moving into CPEC Phase2

Consequences for Pakistan:

• FATF sword will hang for a while
• IMF will do IMF on Pakistan
• EconomicTerrorists will continue to invest in unstability within Pakistan
• IndianTerrorism will become more focused on CPEC/China-in-Pakistan
• GCC will extert all the pressure possible for Pakistan to comply with their strategic objectives
• Pakistanis might be deported from GCC (this will be the extreme measure but cann't be ruled out)
• Pakistan's Ultimatum to OIC will not result in anything Condusive to Eleviate Plight of PakKashmiris in IoJK
• Pakistan can see the Oil Facility withdrawn if Pakistan continues with Policy outlined by SMQ
• The GCC $$ in SBP could be withdrawn
• The possible Investments in Pakistan from GCC could be withdrawn
• Should Pakistan invite OIC FMs on its own... only a few will turn up
• When Pakistan Officially becomes the Core of the New OIC the relationships with GCC will take a deep hit
• The US will keep Pakistan under pressure through all of its PolicyInstruements to give India a breathing space as Frontline state against China
• To keep a Balanced and Equal level relationship with Iran and GCC or Turkiye and GCC will be a Monumental Task for PakDiplomacy
• Price of Not abandoning CPEC or Sino-Pak Axis will have trade and diplomatic consequences from the US led CombinedWest in the short term

In short to become Pakistan, Pakistan shall have to pay dear price... accute pain in the short term.. more Independence in the Long Term!

All of this depends if Pakistan can put its house in Order... from Economy to Judiciary to Governance to Education to Rapid Industrialisation...

Every Choice exacts an Equal Price!

@Ace of Spades it is The Momentum of History in Acceleration ... ThirdActorDynamics in Great ME from Med to Gulf to SouthChinaSea ... nothing exists on its own in Geopolitics!


Mangus

@Arsalan

Saudis increased their domestic VAT rate from 5% to 15% as of 1st July 2020.
Saudi Arabia VAT tax triples to 15 pct on July 1: All you need to know amid COVID-19

I think their short term finances have taken a serious hit, their SWF's are good, but when they can triple their domestic VAT rate, that is a good indicator that no more oil facilities for us.

Blame it on India, China, Iran, Iraq, Gaddafi or the Man on the moon, but dont for the love of God, DONT hang those mofos who looted & plundered with impunity, aka Ghaddari, and Noora clan. AND pls dont talk about those fools who promised to bring back $200bn from Switzerland.

Kids on this forum were cheering that Ahole of an FM SMQ, not realizing that nearly 5m Paks send back remittance on which Pak is surviving, and most importantly SMQ is maneuvering to kick out IK (of which he has been working on from day one). What ever his ills, IK is the best we've got.

Our FO needs a through cleaning, what SMQ has done, would be the equivalent of a Bull in a China shop.

WTH is a silly Oh I See FM meeting going to achieve? A silly joint declaration is going to liberate IoK? WTF are these idiots high on?

What should have been done is that China and others willing to finance a war chest should have been brought onboard, fiscal, and strategic reserves built up, and then turned up the heat to 2000C+, and then watch the baniya roast.

Just a handful of guys on this forum can come up with a better strategy than these Ahole "seasoned political leaders"

Unless this basic issue is fixed, we will always successfully mange to run into solid stone walls.

 

[Ace of Spades]

Kids on this forum were cheering that Ahole of an FM SMQ, not realizing that nearly 5m Paks send back remittance on which Pak is surviving, and most importantly SMQ is maneuvering to kick out IK (of which he has been working on from day one). What ever his ills, IK is the best we have got.

Our FO needs a through cleaning, what SMQ has done would be the equivalent of a Bull in a China shop.

WTH is a silly Oh I See FM meeting going to achieve? A silly joint declaration is going to liberate IoK? WTF are these idiots high on?

I said it in another thread, that i don't see SMQ's statement and later FO defense of it under the context of OIC's unwillingness to call for FMs meeting for Kashmir. As mangus has beautifully combined the factors, it's rather a small reaction on what's been going on. The OP is regarding saudi arabia not extending oil's deferred payment and that's two months old request from Pakistan's end. And one billion dollars pre-mature return before term incident is also before SMQ's statement. So there is more to the story... and i completely agree with @Mangus Ortus Novem assessment.

 

[Imran Khan]

Now this is really funny

 

[Blacklight]

PakBrother mine,

Extremely valid points raised with PakPassion!

SMQ is his Master's Voice... let us leave it at that.

One is worried that with UAE pushed under the bus of FATF and Knife at the throat of KSA by the OrangeMan and Shale dying more than reviving... EVERYONE is in Trouble In OurWorld.

Once Again we are being Acted upon because of Our Own Doing... hence, I begged the question: Can We, Paks, Blame Others?

We turned Ourselves into Beggers NOBODY forced us. The UglyTruth.

EconomicTerrorists were/are Pakistanis not Martians!

AllooGoshtPhilosophers or NGO fed KhooniLeberals are not Aliens...

When I look at the Total EconomicSphere of YoungPopulations of the OurCoreWorld and the Utter EconomicMismanagement or NON-Integeration with the Core i.e GCC, Paksitna, Turkiye and Iran.... I feel bad.

However, my Feeling bad is going to change Nothing... just more painkillers!!!

We need to build PakState from Ground up... however, none seem to be interested in it... with DualNationalities for Political/Babu Elites...

One only tries one's best to impart Rationalism into PakDiscourse ...

MullhaMaffia or LiberMaffia both are parasites...

In the current geostrategic environment everyone is forced to Survive and take care of their National Interests.

Blame-game is ZeroResults!

Mangus

Those who turned us into beggars, committed treason. Hang them for it.

 

[Blacklight]

I said it in another thread, that i don't see SMQ's statement and later FO defense of it under the context of OIC's unwillingness to call for FMs meeting for Kashmir. As mangus has beautifully combined the factors, it's rather a small reaction on what's been going on. The OP is regarding saudi arabia not extending oil's deferred payment and that's two months old request from Pakistan's end. And one billion dollars pre-mature return before term incident is also before SMQ's statement. So there is more to the story... and i completely agree with @Mangus Ortus Novem assessment.

This is the irony, the most undiplomatic, uncultured idiot is our FM, aka Asteen ka saanp.