Turkey, Russia, Iran could form 'rejected coalition,' says expert

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Turkey, Russia, Iran could form 'rejected coalition,' says expert​

Friday, May 14, 2010
BARÇIN YİNANÇ
SALZBURG – Hürriyet Daily News

Turkey, Russia and Iran could form a 'coalition of the rejected,' according to an expert. ‘All three have strategic geopolitical locations. All three have a long tradition of statehood,’ says Andrzej Ananicz, former director of the Polish Intelligence Agency, adding that they all have had state ideologies vilifying others and feeding nationalism. Ultimately, however, he says the scenario is unrealistic because the states do not trust each other

With the growing perception that Turkey will never join the European Union even if it fulfills all the criteria, the country could form a “coalition of the rejected” with fellow international outcasts Russia and Iran, according to a former Polish diplomat.

“The feelings of rejection can serve as the cement of the coalition,” Andrzej Ananicz, former director of the Polish Intelligence Agency, said while speaking this week at the Salzburg Global Seminar, which focused on the future of Turkey.

Asked by organizers to come up with a provocative scenario for Turkey’s foreign policy future, Ananicz said the “coalition of the rejected” option had already been voiced by a top military official, Tuncer Kılınç, when he was at the head of the powerful National Security Council.

Rejected by the EU, Turkey could seek to act together with Russia, which also feels excluded, as well as Iran, Kılınç said in 2002. He is currently among those who are accused of being part of an illegal group that allegedly aimed to topple the government.

The feeling of exclusion is not the only element that can unite the three countries, according to the former Polish ambassador to Ankara.

“All three have strategic geopolitical locations. All three have a long tradition of statehood,” he said, adding that they all have had state ideologies vilifying others and feeding nationalism. In addition, all three have problems with their minorities, he said.

When it comes to their relations with the rest of the world, there are again similarities, Ananicz said.

When the leaders of the three countries go to Europe, for instance, there is a tense atmosphere, as problematic issues dominate the agenda. Yet when a Russian delegation comes to Ankara, or a Turkish delegation goes to Tehran, there is red-carpet welcome, and a cordial atmosphere, he said.

At the same time that the former diplomat was speaking in Salzburg, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was holding talks in Ankara that resulted in the signing of more than a dozen treaties.

When the EU refused to grant candidacy status to Turkey in 1997, Ankara suspended its political dialogue with the EU; at the same time, the country turned to Russia, signing the Blue Stream project to bring Russian natural gas to Turkey across the Black Sea.

Ananicz also said the two sides had reached an understanding based on Turkey refraining to support Chechens, while Russia refrains from supporting the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. “That way, a major problematic issue was removed,” he said.

No trust between Turkey, Iran and Russia

“He is remarkable. Even Tuncer Kılınç couldn’t have done a better job of filling in this coalition idea,” said Can Buharalı, a former Turkish diplomat.

“I could have gone on providing more information to support the argument,” said Ananicz, adding that he does not ultimately believe in such a configuration, but only provided the provocative remarks for the sake of discussion.

“First of all, there is no trust between the three,” he said. “Nobody can do business with Iran. Turkey has felt this twice in its skin when the project of the modernization of the Tehran airport by a Turkish firm was cancelled.”

He also said the Iranian parliament cancelled a project that a Turkish GSM company had won adding that the benefits of Turkey’s relations with the West largely outweigh its relations with the rest of the world.

Despite being the only NATO member to openly object to new sanctions against Iran’s controversial nuclear program, Turkey still finds it difficult to increase its cooperation with Iran, especially in energy areas, as negotiations about exploration and operation rights over Iran’s gas and oil fields have been going on for years without any successful conclusion.

“It is very difficult to do business with Iran,” said Yurdakul Yiğitgüden, a Turkish energy expert participating at the seminar.

“They are not used to market economy conditions. Foreign companies are hindered, and I have always advised Turkish companies to go to Iran together with another foreign company, which would make it a bit easier to overcome the problems,” said Yiğitgüden, a former undersecretary of the Ministry of Energy.

Turkey can surely develop bilateral ties with Russia and Iran in accordance with its interests and priorities.

However, a trilateral institutional cooperation to constitute an alternative to the EU is unlikely because Turkey is certainly committed to multilateralism, said Buharalı, the manager partner of Istanbul Ekonomi Consultancy.

“Its wish to become a member to the EU is a clear indication of that commitment, as is its membership to NATO. It is not, however, possible to argue the same for Russia and Iran. The two countries have so far not shown an interest for multilateral cooperation that would lead to sharing sovereignty. To the contrary, they are rather known for their unilateral approaches,” said the former diplomat, who worked in the Turkish Embassy in Tehran.

“Any such multilateral institutional cooperation should advocate joint values. For instance, the EU is the promoter of free trade, freedoms among member states and their citizens and the development of human rights among others. What would be the values jointly put forward, defended and promoted by this proposed trilateral ‘coalition of the rejected?’ What would its contribution to international foreign policy be?” he asked.

He also raised the question of how this coalition would be perceived by other international actors, beginning with neighbors.

“What would the other Middle Eastern states and particularly Arabs think of an extended coalition between Iran and Turkey, with the addition of Russia? How would the Shanghai five and China respond? What would its implications vis-à-vis the USA be?”


Turkey, Russia, Iran could form 'rejected coalition,' says expert - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

 

[T-Rex]

Turkey, Russia, Iran could form 'rejected coalition,' says expert​

Friday, May 14, 2010
BARÇIN YİNANÇ
SALZBURG – Hürriyet Daily News

Turkey, Russia and Iran could form a 'coalition of the rejected,' according to an expert. ‘All three have strategic geopolitical locations. All three have a long tradition of statehood,’ says Andrzej Ananicz, former director of the Polish Intelligence Agency, adding that they all have had state ideologies vilifying others and feeding nationalism. Ultimately, however, he says the scenario is unrealistic because the states do not trust each other

With the growing perception that Turkey will never join the European Union even if it fulfills all the criteria, the country could form a “coalition of the rejected” with fellow international outcasts Russia and Iran, according to a former Polish diplomat.

“The feelings of rejection can serve as the cement of the coalition,” Andrzej Ananicz, former director of the Polish Intelligence Agency, said while speaking this week at the Salzburg Global Seminar, which focused on the future of Turkey.

Asked by organizers to come up with a provocative scenario for Turkey’s foreign policy future, Ananicz said the “coalition of the rejected” option had already been voiced by a top military official, Tuncer Kılınç, when he was at the head of the powerful National Security Council.

Rejected by the EU, Turkey could seek to act together with Russia, which also feels excluded, as well as Iran, Kılınç said in 2002. He is currently among those who are accused of being part of an illegal group that allegedly aimed to topple the government.

The feeling of exclusion is not the only element that can unite the three countries, according to the former Polish ambassador to Ankara.

“All three have strategic geopolitical locations. All three have a long tradition of statehood,” he said, adding that they all have had state ideologies vilifying others and feeding nationalism. In addition, all three have problems with their minorities, he said.

When it comes to their relations with the rest of the world, there are again similarities, Ananicz said.

When the leaders of the three countries go to Europe, for instance, there is a tense atmosphere, as problematic issues dominate the agenda. Yet when a Russian delegation comes to Ankara, or a Turkish delegation goes to Tehran, there is red-carpet welcome, and a cordial atmosphere, he said.

At the same time that the former diplomat was speaking in Salzburg, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was holding talks in Ankara that resulted in the signing of more than a dozen treaties.

When the EU refused to grant candidacy status to Turkey in 1997, Ankara suspended its political dialogue with the EU; at the same time, the country turned to Russia, signing the Blue Stream project to bring Russian natural gas to Turkey across the Black Sea.

Ananicz also said the two sides had reached an understanding based on Turkey refraining to support Chechens, while Russia refrains from supporting the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. “That way, a major problematic issue was removed,” he said.

No trust between Turkey, Iran and Russia

“He is remarkable. Even Tuncer Kılınç couldn’t have done a better job of filling in this coalition idea,” said Can Buharalı, a former Turkish diplomat.

“I could have gone on providing more information to support the argument,” said Ananicz, adding that he does not ultimately believe in such a configuration, but only provided the provocative remarks for the sake of discussion.

“First of all, there is no trust between the three,” he said. “Nobody can do business with Iran. Turkey has felt this twice in its skin when the project of the modernization of the Tehran airport by a Turkish firm was cancelled.”

He also said the Iranian parliament cancelled a project that a Turkish GSM company had won adding that the benefits of Turkey’s relations with the West largely outweigh its relations with the rest of the world.

Despite being the only NATO member to openly object to new sanctions against Iran’s controversial nuclear program, Turkey still finds it difficult to increase its cooperation with Iran, especially in energy areas, as negotiations about exploration and operation rights over Iran’s gas and oil fields have been going on for years without any successful conclusion.

“It is very difficult to do business with Iran,” said Yurdakul Yiğitgüden, a Turkish energy expert participating at the seminar.

“They are not used to market economy conditions. Foreign companies are hindered, and I have always advised Turkish companies to go to Iran together with another foreign company, which would make it a bit easier to overcome the problems,” said Yiğitgüden, a former undersecretary of the Ministry of Energy.

Turkey can surely develop bilateral ties with Russia and Iran in accordance with its interests and priorities.

However, a trilateral institutional cooperation to constitute an alternative to the EU is unlikely because Turkey is certainly committed to multilateralism, said Buharalı, the manager partner of Istanbul Ekonomi Consultancy.

“Its wish to become a member to the EU is a clear indication of that commitment, as is its membership to NATO. It is not, however, possible to argue the same for Russia and Iran. The two countries have so far not shown an interest for multilateral cooperation that would lead to sharing sovereignty. To the contrary, they are rather known for their unilateral approaches,” said the former diplomat, who worked in the Turkish Embassy in Tehran.

“Any such multilateral institutional cooperation should advocate joint values. For instance, the EU is the promoter of free trade, freedoms among member states and their citizens and the development of human rights among others. What would be the values jointly put forward, defended and promoted by this proposed trilateral ‘coalition of the rejected?’ What would its contribution to international foreign policy be?” he asked.

He also raised the question of how this coalition would be perceived by other international actors, beginning with neighbors.

“What would the other Middle Eastern states and particularly Arabs think of an extended coalition between Iran and Turkey, with the addition of Russia? How would the Shanghai five and China respond? What would its implications vis-à-vis the USA be?”


Turkey, Russia, Iran could form 'rejected coalition,' says expert - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

If this a coalition of the rejected then Israel+US+India+UK+EU is a coalition of the infected.