What will Happen to Cuba Without Oil from Venezuela?

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What will Happen to Cuba Without Oil from Venezuela? - Havana Times.org

HAVANA TIMES — No matter how much some choose to minimize it, the result of the parliamentary elections in Venezuela has represented a harsh blow to the Latin American left, if we add it to what just happened (or will happen) in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Ecuador.

If there really is a Plan B for the Cuban authorities — something that no one should doubt, considering President Raul Castro’s farsighted nature ever since Sierra Maestra days — it may be found in the same strongbox where he kept the secret negotiations with the United States before the reestablishment of relations on Dec. 17 of last year. And under the same combination.

To underestimate the people’s wisdom and sagacity would be a big mistake, at least in Cuba, where everyone knows how to read and — more importantly — think and interpret.

Last Sunday, the day of the elections, many Cubans remained glued to Telesur and the results of the parliamentary elections. They were not functionaries assigned to monitor what many predicted would be “a done deal,” so they could then submit their evaluations to the higher echelons of the government or party.

No, sir. They were ordinary people, plain citizens with the same big concern as everyone else in the country: What will happen to the supply of Venezuelan oil to Cuba?

Some, in high places and not the type to crack jokes, asked their friends if they had a tankful of gasoline and a 5-gallon emergency gas can.

Cuba is no longer in any condition to withstand a second Special Period. Everybody here knows that, even the great-grandchildren of those who once had to get rid of their purebred dogs.

Some analysts in the international media assume that, if the trend to the right continues in Caracas under a president who now finds himself in a tough situation, Cuba would crank up its good-will relations with the United States, fearing a possible reduction of the shipments of crude oil to the island. A majority in the Venezuelan Congress permits the revision of pacts, among other changes.

But this catalysis that, according to them, would speed up Cuba’s relations with the U.S. would not be a preferred or the ideal solution for Havana because — in chess terms — it would be like losing a knight to win a pawn.

I would like to add that the Cuban leadership, as well as practically all the think tanks, native and foreign, has been anticipating for a long time a readjustment in U.S. policy, with an eye to gradually recovering the hegemonic control that Washington lost south of its borders.

And Venezuela is a key point, which doesn’t mean that the result of the elections held in that sister nation was totally caused by maneuvers concocted in Washington.

In the back of their heads, the Cuban people presume or foresee the full implementation of a Plan B that is ready to take effect when the moment comes. For the past several months, the Cuban people have been watching the travel of important officials to oil-producing countries with which the government maintains excellent relations and exchanges.

Are they right or wrong? That incorruptible judge known as Time will tell us.

 

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Venezuela slashes oil shipments to Cuba, Caribbean in half | Miami Herald


Venezuela has cut in half its subsidized shipments of crude oil to Cuba and Petrocaribe member nations to 200,000 barrels per day, down from 400,000 shipped in 2012, a Barclays report says.

Also, the British investment bank’s report considered it “ironic” that Venezuela would ship any oil at all, highlighting that while the country is going through extreme difficulties, it continues to subsidize oil sales to countries that have healthier economies.

Because of the cuts in oil shipments to the Caribbean, the firm reduced its deficit forecast for Venezuela to $22.6 billion, down from more than $30 billion predicted for 2015.

“The oil agreements have been a heavy burden for Venezuela. These deliveries reached 400,000 bpd at their peak in 2012, though Venezuela only received payment for 200,000 bpd,” said the Barclays report, citing figures from Petrologistics, the firm that follows tanker movements. “In the last decade, the agreements have cost Venezuela up to $50 billion,” added the report, titled Reducing Generosity.

Surprisingly, Cuba, the most important ally of Nicolás Maduro’s regime, has not been exonerated from the cuts, which deepened after August 2014, when crude-oil prices began to drop.

“Cuba has received about 55,000 barrels per day since September, nearly half of what it received in 2012,” the report says.

The cuts in deliveries to Cuba are more important than those of the other countries benefiting from Venezuela’s generosity, because unlike member countries of the Petrocaribe program, which at least pay a portion of the deliveries, Havana’s regime does not make cash payments for the exchange.

Under the cooperation agreements in place between both countries, Cuba pays for oil with the services of doctors and sports trainers for the social programs launched by the Venezuelan government, as well as with the island’s intelligence services.

However, shipments to Petrocaribe member countries have also been reduced significantly.

Shipments to the Dominican Republic and Jamaica, which account for about half of the program, have dropped 56 percent and 74 percent compared to 2012.

Venezuela, which had recently enjoyed one of the most pronounced and prolonged oil bonanzas in its history, is now immersed in one of the worst economic crises due to the systematic destruction of the national production structure and the dramatic plunge of oil prices, economists say.

Venezuelans, who today face a scarcity index of more than 50 percent, are forced to spend hours in food lines to enter supermarkets with half-empty shelves.



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so basically Venezuela ships 200,000 barrels of oil a day to Cuba in exchange for the services of thousands of Cuban doctors,sports physicians, and military/political advisers.


not long ago Cuba was even selling excess oil it get's from Venezuela at the world market price for massive profits.


if they do cut Cuba off they should offer the doctors/teachers asylum in Venezuela and pay them directly instead of the Cuba government

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrocaribe