EDITORIAL (May 31 2009): The Chairman of Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Pakistan (IEEEP), Lahore Chapter, Suleman N. Khan, while talking to Business Recorder has made two very important and valid points regarding Pakistan's long-term economic viability.
One, the country must stop annual loss of water worth $60 billion due to lack of availability of required storage capacity, and two, it has at least to double its power generation capacity within the next 10 years for it to attain sustainable growth. In practical terms, this means construction of three Kalabagh-sized dams over the next 12 years to increase the storage capacity.
According to Khan, these run-of-the-river projects will add 20,000 megawatts of additional "Sasti Bijli" (inexpensive power) by the year 2020 to the national grid, and would help steer Pakistan towards the path of becoming an industrialised and viable state.
Above all, Suleman Khan has argued that the public sector should play its due role in this crucial area if the country's economy is to develop a sustainable growth pattern. Meanwhile, former Managing Director of Pepco, Munawar B. Ahmad has stressed the need to ensure affordability and sustainability of energy supply in the country. He has put the current shortage of electricity and natural gas at 3,500 megawatts and 400-600 mmcfd, respectively.
Ahmad has argued in a presentation paper that the current primary energy mix is unsustainable in aspects of supply, security, sustainability and cost. Pakistan's oil import bill is projected to spiral to about $42 billion by 2022 from $12 billion at present.
Hydropower generation has remained static over the years, with most of the IPPs using imported fuel oil, which has rendered the cost of production prohibitively expensive, while coal's share in the energy mix remains only about nine percent despite the fact that the Thar coal reserves can meet the country's energy requirements for over 100 years.
(Coal's share in energy mix of USA is said to be around 50 percent.) Ahmad has stressed the need of revising the Primary Energy Mix, along with an updated power generation plan, in the 2012-2030 context, with a major shift to Thar coal as a part of primary energy vis-à-vis imported natural gas and oil. He has also proposed that the strategic priority to nuclear primary energy must be increased to about 5 percent, and renewable energy to about 3 percent in the 2030 context.
The two experts have identified some critical shortcomings in the country's water and power sector that need to be addressed through a well-planned strategy. However, a few points need to be made here. First, despite what the water and power bureaucracy has claimed over the years, it has been able to add only 6,463 megawatts of hydropower to the national energy mix, out of a total untapped hydropower potential of approximately 41,000 megawatts, including 15,000 megawatts from the Northern Areas alone.
There could not be a pithier summing up than this of its performance. Secondly, despite being dirt cheap, hydropower is still not being given the degree of primacy it deserves, as under Wapda's Vision 2025 programme only 769 megawatts hydropower is planned to be added to the national grid by the year 2010.
Will we be able to add even this quantum by the cut-off date, given the tardy pace of implementation of power projects, against which the World Bank has repeatedly cautioned us? There are numerous causes of our failure to develop the country's hydropower potential, one of which is the mixing of priorities of power generation from "big multi-purpose water reservoir dams" with "run-of-the-river" power generation.
The basic purpose of the former category is irrigation, with power generation being only a by-product, while the latter category is meant purely for power generation. The distinction needs to be incorporated in the policy framework for all hydropower projects to be taken up in future. Thirdly, Pakistan has traditionally given priority to Kalabagh, Bhasha and Akhori dams, which became hostage to political wrangling, at the cost of non-controversial "run-of-the-river" projects.
For instance, there is a perception that Kalabagh dam has often been exploited by those at the helm for its divisive potential. The blurring of distinction between "multi-purpose water reservoir dams" and "run-of-the-river" dams has become (or been made) a major cause of the country's immense hydropower potential remaining untapped, at incalculable harm to the economy.
The steep shortfall in energy generation has meanwhile served as a handy raison d'etre for promotion of the expensive oil-based power generation, which has badly eroded competitiveness of our exports. Experts maintain that the government needs to prioritise hydropower projects, with shorter-duration schemes being taken up first.
There is in fact an urgent need for the government to undertake fast-track execution of hydropower projects, along with construction of water reservoirs to prevent loss of some 30 million acre feet (Maf) of water that annually flows down into the sea, unutilised. Pakistan's inaction over water and power projects has become India's gain, which has been proceeding full-steam ahead with construction of a string of dams, many of them highly controversial.
After Kishanganga, it has not only successfully completed Baglihar Dam and stolen water from Pakistan's rightful share; it is said to have planned construction of as many as 12 Baglihar-type dams, which have the potential to wreak havoc with Pakistan's agriculture and power sectors. There is therefore a need to speed up the pace of project execution, particularly in water and power sectors.
Ahmad, while talking about the steps being taken for preparation and implementation of the National Energy Plan, has revealed that a statutory body named "The National Energy Authority" (NEA), to be headed by a chairman and staffed by 12 board members, six private sector professionals and six energy sector experts/MDs from the public sector, is being set up to undertake strategic planning in energy sector, and to prepare the Energy Policy, which would be integrated into the comprehensive National Energy Plan (NEP) for the short-term, medium-term and long-term execution of projects.
We believe that there is absolutely no need to set up any such body, as there are already a surfeit of planners on public water and power sector's payroll. What the country needs is the goal-oriented implementers, who can actually go out of their offices to ensure cost-effective and timely execution of mega projects, most of which remain confined only to the office files anyway.
The IEEEP chairman's proposal that the public sector, with its qualified and trained manpower and vast financial resources, must play a pivotal role in execution of water and power projects, should be made the basis of a policy overhaul, to bring it in sync with the needs of the hour.
