US withdrawal from Afghanistan

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Beyond US withdrawal from Afghanistan​

The US is leaving Afghanistan. Only the details of the withdrawal and the schedule of the return is to announced. A massive campaign will be launched to obfuscate the defeat with face saving measures like the ones implemented in Iraq.

Mr. Ralph Peters once a “Surger” is now an “Exiter“. Mr. Peter’s four possibilities can be listed as choice between an exit strategy or a hasty retreat after the defeat. We see it as follows:

1) Plan an exist strategy and leave with dignity now or

2) Wait for the Taliban to run over Karzai’s forbidden city

The ranks of the “Exiters” from Afghanistan is surging because of several interlinked factors—the economy and China. Both are inter-related and the dependencies weigh heavy on the White House. Without China’s help, the USA cannot sustain the bailouts or hope for a recovery. China is willing to give the US a reprieve, but may have a couple of strings attached. China will exact a price. It seems that Beijing at this point will require a pullout from Afghanistan and the resolution of Kashmir. We have always considered Kashmir as the silent “K” in Holbrooke’s mission. India’s worst nightmares come true: Long term strategic malaise in a changing world . The People’s Daily leaves no doubt that the resolution of Kashmir is not simply a “nice to have” on the “wish list” of Mr. Holbrooke–it a mandated requirement-China’s pound of flesh for agreeing to buy American T-Bonds. India feels the pain: The US begs Beijing for money.

The USSR offered the Muslim republics of Central Asia a confederation and the right to secede. However Islam was abolished in the name of “secularism“, mosques were banned and Muslim practices were illegal. The central Asian republics kept the faith alive. In the 80s many of these Muslims were conscripted and to fight the Afghans. They were impressed by the Afghan fighters. One such former Russian trooper was Juma Namangani.

Uzbeks Juma Namangani, and Tohir Yuldashev were inspired by Babur. In 1998, they formed The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a militant group that wants to eliminate Soviet and Russian influences from Uzbekistan and the other former Central Asian republics.

The IMU objective is to overthrow President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan, and to create an Islamic state.

In 1999 and 2000 the IMU launched a series of audacious raids into Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan from Tajikistan and Taliban-controlled areas of northern Afghanistan. These raides alarmed Russia and China and they formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. These raids also alarmed the USA and are considered one of the main reasons for the devastating attack on Afghanistan

The IMU and the Taliban were on the verge of eliminating the Northern Alliance which was supported by India, Russia and Iran. In 2001 Afghan bombing started. The IMU was specifically targeted and dispersed into the countryside along with the Taliban. Namangani was killed but. Yuldeshev and a large number of fighters escaped.

The IMU has made some statements against the Pakistan government according the Adnkronos International, which is an Italian news agency formed in 2003 to report news of the Middle East. The IMUs support for the Red Mosque confirms foreign connections to the Red Mosque terrorists. There are reports that the IMU has been infiltrated by Indian, and anti-Pakistan elements.

With the administration of United States President Barack Obama treating the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan as a priority, given the resurgence of the Taliban, Russia has become an important player in the region.

Moscow has indicated its apparent support for the US by allowing the transit of supplies for Afghanistan through its territory. On the other hand, the decision by the government in Kyrgyzstan to close the US base at Manas is attributed to Russian pressure.
There therefore remains a widespread perception in the West that Russia is enjoying the US’s struggles in Afghanistan, given the history of the Soviet Union’s quagmire in that country during the 1980s.
There might be some truth in this, but Russia has a compelling


reason to be involved in Afghanistan. This is not because of any grand ideas of empire-building; rather it is to be prepared for the possibility of the US’s failure there.
A considerable segment of the Russian elite is not anti-American, and even less so anti-European. Their main concern is the Muslim East.

Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s representative at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), emphasized this point in a recent interview in which he said that the US’s defeat in Afghanistan would be “a great catastrophe for Russia” as Islamists would immediately spread across Central Asia and the Caucasus. He added that the US presence in Afghanistan was in Russia’s best interests, implying that the best outcome was if the US stayed there indefinitely.

However, Rogozin said he doubted the US would stay long enough to finish the job. It is at this point that what is now a newly emerging military force comprising Russia and several other, mostly Central Asian states, is supposed to step in to keep the Islamists at bay.
Such a military force is problematic, though.

Belarus, for example, is a member of the new arrangement and is supposedly one of the strongest Russian allies - the countries recently signed an agreement for joint air defense.
But President Alexander Lukashenko has made it clear that Belarus will not send any troops outside the country’s borders, and he has engaged in an open flirtation with anti-Russian Ukraine as well as the European Union. Dmitry Shlapentokh, PhD, is associate professor of history, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Indiana University South Bend. He is author of East Against West: The First Encounter - The Life of Themistocles, 2005. Asia Times. Russia has ‘Chechnya’ ploy for Afghanistan, By Dmitry Shlapentokh

For years we have shed light on the pull and push theory. Can the $80 Billion Think Tank industry not comprehend the simple truths described by Peter Senge in his seminal book “The 5th Discipline“. They theory goes as follows. When the Police cracks down on drug dealers on 42nd street, the drug dealing does not disappear, it simply moved to 52nd street or gets dispersed over a bigger area out of reach of the police raids. Similarly when the US bombs the insurgents in East Afghanistan, it is but obvious that they will find shelter and hideouts on the Duran Line and beyond. As the US drones bomb FATA, areas in Pakistan are affected destabilizing parts of the NWFP.

Now that the arduous route from Russia and Uzbekistan will supply non-military supplies to Kabul obviously the pull and push theory will come into affect and push the war into Uzbekistan. Already Islam Karimov is under severe pressure from the IMU. He is hanging by a thread. If you continue to kill Pakistanis, the nation cannot support the US war in Afghanistan. Ferghana Valley, now is Uzbekistan has many links to the South Asian Subcontinent. Zahiruddin Babur, the founder of the Mughal Empire was born in Ferghana and lies buried in Kabul.

President Imomali Rakhmonov of Tajikistan is also wavering, apparently upset by the thousands of Tajik workers expelled from Russia due to the economic crisis. He has indicated that he might not participate in the alliance at all, and might even close the Russian base in Tajikistan and invite the Americans instead.

Islam Karimov, the mercurial leader of Uzbekistan, known for his constant vacillation between Russia and the West, has proclaimed that he would send troops, but only on a case-by-case basis.
Russia is clearly a long way from building a force of any note, if at all, and Moscow, acutely aware of this, has another plan, which is drawn from the template adopted successfully in Chechnya.

This involves establishing a sphere of influence in northern Afghanistan, where the major ethnic groups are Uzbeks and Tajiks, unlike the Pashtuns that dominate other parts of the country and which support the Taliban. Under the Northern Alliance led by the legendary Ahmad Shah Massoud, a pocket in the north held out against the Taliban during its years in power from 1996-2001.

In Chechnya, Moscow tamed nationalist Chechens by dishing out considerable largesse to President Ramzan Kadyrov. This included not only money but a huge mosque erected in the capital Grozny. The resistance was steadily incorporated into Kaydrov’s forces; and Akhmed Zakaev, the leader of the virtual Chechen government in exile, has even implied he might return.

This would pit Kadyrov, as Moscow’s proxy, against Chechen rebel leader Dokka Umarov’s Caucasus Emirate jihadis. If this happens, it would mark the transformation of Chechnya from the major headache of the Kremlin into a major cushion against the jihadi threat.

Similarly, in Afghanistan, Russia could stretch its hand into the north to establish a credible buffer. It is even possible that embattled President Hamid Karzai could be drawn into this circle.

Dmitry Shlapentokh, PhD, is associate professor of history, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Indiana University South Bend. He is author of East Against West: The First Encounter - The Life of Themistocles, 2005. Asia Times. Russia has ‘Chechnya’ ploy for Afghanistan, By Dmitry Shlapentokh