US manufacturers hit harder than China’s in trade war PMI data support findings of Harvard study int

[beijingwalker]

US manufacturers hit harder than China’s in trade war PMI data support findings of Harvard study into impact of tariffs
Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong YESTERDAY

“Trade wars are good, and easy to win.” So wrote Donald Trump in a tweet from March 2018, shortly before launching the first round of tariffs on goods from China. But, for all Mr Trump’s bravado, data paint an increasingly bleak picture of the trade war’s impact on the US economy.

The US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has been below the 50-point mark separating contraction from expansion since August, while the official counterpart from China’s statistics bureau shows a smaller fall in manufacturing activity and far greater resilience over the long term.

“If the sentiment of manufacturers is any guide, the US is losing out more from the escalation of the trade war,” said Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets.

“US manufacturing sentiment has collapsed in the past nine months, spectacularly so in the last quarter. Meanwhile, their Chinese counterparts, at least by the official measure, are no less cautious than they were at the beginning of the year.

” Moreover, the Caixin manufacturing PMI, which focuses more on smaller and private companies than the official gauge, recently shot back into positive territory to its highest level in two years.

Mr Metcalfe said the recent PMI data appeared to support the findings of a recent paper from Harvard University, the University of Chicago and the Boston Federal Reserve, which found that US importers had paid a heavy price for the trade war, based on data collected at the border and from retailers.

“If economic rationale was a key driver, the pressure to agree a trade truce soon is growing,” he said.

https://www.ft.com/content/e4aa3a80-0083-11ea-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47

 

[beijingwalker]

First time in the history that US will lose a trade war and its economic sanction based foreign policy, a milestone, that'll put an end to US bullying and economic sanction policies around the world once and for all.

 

[PakFactor]

First time in the history that US will lose a trade war and its economic sanction based foreign policy, a milestone, that'll put an end to US bullying and economic sanction policies around the world once and for all.

I’m waiting for that day, so rest of the world doesn’t get blackmailed and/or sanctioned for not towing US Foreign Policies.

US policies not only hurt foreign economies but it’s also asymmetrical warfare where innocents like Iranian children bear the brunt when world stops suppling medical equipment and or medicine that are critically needed.

It’s also the rest of the worlds fault collectively of unproportionally Strengthening one side over the other rather that keeping not just a military but also economic balance. Due to these stupid shit head leaders we’ve all had in past brought us to this situation.

 

[beijingwalker]

US losses from Trump’s China trade war will never be recovered, shipping data tells us
PUBLISHED WED, NOV 13 201911:44 AM ESTUPDATED 6 HOURS AGO

KEY POINTS

• President Trump announced a month ago that his administration had clinched a “phase one” trade deal with China.
• Since then, countless declarations of “winning,” but agreeing to a deal only “if the terms are right,” have added to the year and half long conflicting cacophony of rhetoric about the content of any trade agreement with China.
• Bottom line? The constant bluster has blurred the reality of what a deal would even accomplish, if anything at all. The only way to shovel away the pile of broken promises and contradictory comments is to analyze the flow of maritime trade.

A cargo chip (L) arrives into the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest container port in the U.S., after departing from the Port of Yantian, China, on November 7, 2019 in San Pedro, California.

President Trump announced a month ago that his administration had clinched a trade deal with China. Well, actually, the first in a series of deals, which the White House now refers to as “phase one.”

Since then, countless declarations of “winning,” but agreeing to a deal only “if the terms are right,” have added to the year and half long conflicting cacophony of rhetoric about the content of any trade agreement with China.

Bottom line? The constant bluster has blurred the reality of what a deal would even accomplish, if anything at all. The only way to shovel away the pile of broken promises and contradictory comments is to analyze the flow of maritime trade.

Why? With 90% of all items in a house transported over water, it is the purest form of showing supply and demand. The flow of trade is agnostic. It moves regardless of who is “winning” or “losing.”

The impact of this trade war and the opportunities lost by American businesses both large and small can not only be tracked by the public earnings reports, but through American exports.

And a deal, no matter what is agreed on, would never make up for the losses sustained during this trade war, according to calculations based on the decrease in volumes of containers, cargo and tankers that traveled into U.S. ports.

Dropping export volume
For a perspective on the losses, look no further than the Port of Los Angeles, the largest port in the country. U.S. exports to China from the bustling harbor decreased for 12 consecutive months. It suffered a 19.1% drop in export volume when comparing October 2019 with the same month in 2018.


China’s retaliatory tariffs hit 96.6% of the purchases of U.S. exports that traveled through the L.A. port complex, with a price tag of $19.9 billion.

Add on the additional retaliatory tariffs from the other countries the U.S. is sparring with on trade, and that brings the total of impacted export cargo to $20.2 billion, or 28.8% of all export value through the L.A. port system. Considering 95% of the world’s consumers are outside of the U.S., the tariffs imposed on American goods have priced them out of the global marketplace.

The receipt of losses is long and varied. The trade war expands beyond agriculture, which is $11 billion in the hole (and counting). The promises of President Trump of the $40 billion to $50 billion in agriculture buys by the Chinese in phase one is just an overblown headline. If you crunch the numbers, the two years before the trade war, the agriculture business community made $49.807 billion. China would have to buy $50 billion over the course of two years to make it a “win.” But is it really? If it was a win shouldn’t the lost revenue be added to that?

Agriculture is not the only sector trying to fill the leaking China bucket.

Data have shown China is expanding its LNG relationships with Qatar and Australia while essentially shutting off the United States.

Before the trade war, U.S. LNG volumes comprised 4.3% of Chinese imports and China accounted for 16% trailing twelve-month basis (TTM) of U.S. LNG exports.

In August 2019, China’s LNG volumes had slipped precipitously to 1% (TTM). Crude has also suffered a similar fate, accounting for 20% (TTM) of U.S. crude exports in Jan. 2018 to only 1.2% (TTM) in August 2019.

President Xi continues to press forward with the country’s Belt Road Initiative and China 2025 inking trade deals.

The flow of trade proves how China is moving away from the United States and turning to Europe.

Retail and technology have announced losses in the billions. According to the National Retail Federation, consumers and businesses have paid an additional $38 billion from the start of the trade war in February 2018 through September 2019. The Consumer Technology Association says the September tariffs added about $15.5 billion in extra tariffs.

So as the bluster blows and promises of winning mount, the actual flow of trade paints a very different picture.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/tru...ever-be-recovered-shipping-data-tells-us.html

 

[beijingwalker]

America Is Losing The Trade War with China

 

[Menthol]

Blocking China means you are cutting out yourselves from one of the world's best suppliers.

Of course, it will hit your industry hard.

 

[beijingwalker]

Blocking China means you are cutting out yourselves from one of the world's best suppliers.

Of course, it will hit your industry hard.

Also the world biggest market of 1.4 billion people.

 

[beijingwalker]

It’s Not Just Farmers—U.S. Exports May Never Recover From the Trade War
By Anita Sharpe
November 15, 2019, 6:00 PM GMT+8

• 
  From Florida to Alaska, sales declines extend beyond farm belt
• 
  Oregon’s Chinese exports surge 65% largely driven by Intel

The Trump administration’s trade war is ravaging exports to China across the U.S. and well beyond the farm belt, new data from the U.S. Commerce Department show.

More than 30 states stretching from Florida to Alaska suffered double-digit drops in merchandise exports to China through September of this year. Sales to the Asian nation fell 39% in Texas, where oil and gas productscomprise the largest export to that country.

n Alabama, which touts its status as the No. 3 auto-exporting state in the U.S., total shipments to China plunged 49% in the first nine months. Florida’s merchandise sales to the country slumped 40% in the period, while West Virginia and Wisconsin each saw drops of about 25%. Product exports to China from the U.S. as a whole dropped 15% to $78.8 billion.

“Chinese demand for imports overall has been weak,” said Brad Setser, senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. The recovery time for various U.S. products will depend on the nature of the trade deal, he said.

“In some cases, U.S. exports will never recover,” he added.

Washington state, home of Boeing’s industrial base, saw total Chinese merchandise exports fall 45% through the third quarter amid the grounding of the 737 Max, the company’s best-selling jet.

China has struck back in the trade war by imposing duties on about $135 billion of U.S. goods, targeting everything from farming products like soybeans and pork to motorcycles, cosmetics and wigs. With talks underway for a phase-one deal, Beijing has re-upped its demands for the removal of tariffs the U.S. has put on $360 billion of Chinese imports.

Meanwhile, a new report says China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods likely cost the GOP five House seats in the mid-term 2018 elections, a possible warning sign ahead of next year’s presidential vote. The study didn’t identify the candidates, but it pointed to agricultural tariffs as driving the losses.

The trade war, coupled with cuts to health care, “appear to have hurt Republican candidates where swing voters matter most,” said the analysis released this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

If tariffs remain and companies reduce jobs or wage growth slows due to declining exports, “there’s room for stronger effects on workers and on how they vote” in the 2020 elections, said Emily Blanchard, an economics professor at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business and an author of the study.

That’s not happening yet, said Ahmad Ijaz, an economist at the University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research.

“Although exports to China have fallen sharply in 2019, it hasn’t had any significant impact on payrolls so far,” he said, adding that vehicle manufacturers are hiring workers and some lost sales to China are being offset by gains in other places, particularly Europe.

Exports to China support more than a million U.S. jobs, according to the U.S.-China Business Council, which represents American companies doing business in China.

Amid the Chinese export carnage are a few bright spots. Buyers are still snapping up semiconductors made in Oregon, primarily by Intel Corp.which operates one of its biggest manufacturing plants in the state. Oregon’s total exports to China surged 65% in the nine months, according to the data. Only about a third of the state’s products are impacted by the proposed tariffs, according to Business Oregon spokesman Nathan Buehler, who said semiconductors for the most part are exempt.

Intel Gives Bullish Forecast on Data-Center Chip Demand

Similarly, South Carolina’s sales to China jumped 30% through September, partly on airplane exports. Some Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliner planes are made in the state and about 17% of those aircraft to date have been sold to China. The Chinese were set to buy 100 more Boeing wide-body jets, including the 787 and 777X, but the deal has stalled on trade uncertainties.

Boeing Warns U.S.-China Spat Raises New Risk for 787 Dreamliner

Indeed, neither South Carolina nor Oregon officials are complacent about the future of their Chinese exports. “It’s the uncertainty that provides so much concern,” Buehler said, noting that potential new tariffs are an obstacle for existing exporters and a barrier for companies weighing the costs of entry. “There’s lots of angst.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...re-trump-trade-war-is-hammering-china-exports