beijingwalker
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Trump is focused on the China trade war when he should be concerned about space
The Chang'e 4 lunar probe launches from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in southwest China in December 2018. (Jiang Hongjing/Xinhua News Agency/Associated Press)
By Namrata Goswami
November 15, 2019 at 4:13 a.m. GMT+8
While President Trump’s trade war with China continues to play out on Earth, the real fight for future economic dominance is going on over his head: literally.
In late October, a top Chinese space policymaker revealed plans to establish an Earth-moon space economic zone by 2050, with the potential to generate $10 trillion annually. That’s a tenfold increase over the ambitions articulated by the U.S. secretary of commerce, Wilbur Ross, in an op-ed this year. The plan paints a picture of a domain from the Earth to the moon and nearby asteroids in which China, not the United States, is the lead player, deciding the norms and rules of the game.
The moon, with its abundant resources including Helium 3 for nuclear reactors, water in the form of ice, iron ore, titanium and platinum, offers humanity the materials to become a space-faring species. That’s not merely a matter of science fiction: The country that establishes a viable jumping-off point from the moon will be the first to get the opportunity to benefit from trillion dollars worth of space-based resources, among them lunar and asteroid mining and space-based solar power.
No wonder China has articulated the ambition to eclipse the United States as the No. 1 space power by 2045. This goal is an integral part of President Xi Jinping’s “Chinese dream” concept, enshrined into the Chinese constitution in 2017, that aims to turn China into the lead global power by 2049, just in time to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China. Far from being a distraction or an add-on to these Earthbound ambitions, space is vital to this plan. By 2050, China is predicted to be the world’s top economy; to preserve that position, it will need vast extraction of new resources, not all of which will continue to be available on Earth.
And though the plan for this economic zone is a long-term one, Chinese space policymakers and scientists have persuaded the country’s leaders to make consequential investments in efforts such as China’s Lunar Exploration Program.
This push is serious. Ouyang Ziyuan, chief scientist for China’s lunar program, began to make the case that China should develop the capacity to extract lunar resources in 2002, arguing that “the moon could serve as a new and tremendous supplier of energy. . . . Whoever first conquers the moon will benefit first.” Two years later, China approved its lunar mission. Five years later, with Ziyuan as chief scientist, China launched the Chang’e 1, an unmanned craft that orbits the moon. This year, as part of that resource extraction goal, Chang’e 4 landed on the far side of the moon, so shocking the Trump administration that it set a goal for a lunar return by 2024. In January, China announced plans to establish a permanent research base on the lunar South Pole by 2036.
These ambitions are very real. Accessing vast new stores of energy to fuel its economy is a key motivation for China’s space economic zone. Building an industrial base on the moon is necessary to enable China’s ambition to build a ring of orbital power stations to supply all of Earth with constant green electricity built from lunar materials, a concept called space-based solar power. China’s intent to industrialize Earth-moon space to build solar power satellites was specified by a top space official, Lt. Gen. Zhang Yulin, in 2016. In February 2019, China made its initial investments in the world’s first space-based solar power plant.
This pattern ought to convince us that when China offers a glimpse into its space ambitions, the country is not merely bluffing. A public presentation on the Earth-Moon economic zone suggests that there is official planning underway to achieve such a goal. We have been forewarned and should not be surprised when China begins serious moves. China will use this Earth-Moon zone to poach on U.S. allies and partners, seducing them with the kind of predatory lending it has made on Earth as part of its Belt and Road Initiative to build infrastructure abroad, and even establishing a China-based court system to resolve disputes over these investments.
The strategic consequences for the United States and other space-faring nations are real. Just as China has attempted to expand its influence over the seas here on Earth, it may try to do so in space, with tremendous implications for the future of democracy in the solar system and beyond. The time to wake up to that China-dominated space future is now, not when it’s a fait accompli. The United States still has time and agency left to determine how space will be governed and how its resources will be shared. The country shouldn’t waste it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...8d7374-06f7-11ea-ac12-3325d49eacaa_story.html
The Chang'e 4 lunar probe launches from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in southwest China in December 2018. (Jiang Hongjing/Xinhua News Agency/Associated Press)
By Namrata Goswami
November 15, 2019 at 4:13 a.m. GMT+8
While President Trump’s trade war with China continues to play out on Earth, the real fight for future economic dominance is going on over his head: literally.
In late October, a top Chinese space policymaker revealed plans to establish an Earth-moon space economic zone by 2050, with the potential to generate $10 trillion annually. That’s a tenfold increase over the ambitions articulated by the U.S. secretary of commerce, Wilbur Ross, in an op-ed this year. The plan paints a picture of a domain from the Earth to the moon and nearby asteroids in which China, not the United States, is the lead player, deciding the norms and rules of the game.
The moon, with its abundant resources including Helium 3 for nuclear reactors, water in the form of ice, iron ore, titanium and platinum, offers humanity the materials to become a space-faring species. That’s not merely a matter of science fiction: The country that establishes a viable jumping-off point from the moon will be the first to get the opportunity to benefit from trillion dollars worth of space-based resources, among them lunar and asteroid mining and space-based solar power.
No wonder China has articulated the ambition to eclipse the United States as the No. 1 space power by 2045. This goal is an integral part of President Xi Jinping’s “Chinese dream” concept, enshrined into the Chinese constitution in 2017, that aims to turn China into the lead global power by 2049, just in time to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China. Far from being a distraction or an add-on to these Earthbound ambitions, space is vital to this plan. By 2050, China is predicted to be the world’s top economy; to preserve that position, it will need vast extraction of new resources, not all of which will continue to be available on Earth.
And though the plan for this economic zone is a long-term one, Chinese space policymakers and scientists have persuaded the country’s leaders to make consequential investments in efforts such as China’s Lunar Exploration Program.
This push is serious. Ouyang Ziyuan, chief scientist for China’s lunar program, began to make the case that China should develop the capacity to extract lunar resources in 2002, arguing that “the moon could serve as a new and tremendous supplier of energy. . . . Whoever first conquers the moon will benefit first.” Two years later, China approved its lunar mission. Five years later, with Ziyuan as chief scientist, China launched the Chang’e 1, an unmanned craft that orbits the moon. This year, as part of that resource extraction goal, Chang’e 4 landed on the far side of the moon, so shocking the Trump administration that it set a goal for a lunar return by 2024. In January, China announced plans to establish a permanent research base on the lunar South Pole by 2036.
These ambitions are very real. Accessing vast new stores of energy to fuel its economy is a key motivation for China’s space economic zone. Building an industrial base on the moon is necessary to enable China’s ambition to build a ring of orbital power stations to supply all of Earth with constant green electricity built from lunar materials, a concept called space-based solar power. China’s intent to industrialize Earth-moon space to build solar power satellites was specified by a top space official, Lt. Gen. Zhang Yulin, in 2016. In February 2019, China made its initial investments in the world’s first space-based solar power plant.
This pattern ought to convince us that when China offers a glimpse into its space ambitions, the country is not merely bluffing. A public presentation on the Earth-Moon economic zone suggests that there is official planning underway to achieve such a goal. We have been forewarned and should not be surprised when China begins serious moves. China will use this Earth-Moon zone to poach on U.S. allies and partners, seducing them with the kind of predatory lending it has made on Earth as part of its Belt and Road Initiative to build infrastructure abroad, and even establishing a China-based court system to resolve disputes over these investments.
The strategic consequences for the United States and other space-faring nations are real. Just as China has attempted to expand its influence over the seas here on Earth, it may try to do so in space, with tremendous implications for the future of democracy in the solar system and beyond. The time to wake up to that China-dominated space future is now, not when it’s a fait accompli. The United States still has time and agency left to determine how space will be governed and how its resources will be shared. The country shouldn’t waste it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...8d7374-06f7-11ea-ac12-3325d49eacaa_story.html
