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Trade deficit at $13.9b, leaves behind IMF estimate

Edevelop

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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s trade deficit swelled to about $14 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal year, which was $1.5 billion higher than the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projection and may largely neutralise the positive impact of $2 billion Eurobonds on foreign currency reserves.

Figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Thursday showed that the trade deficit – difference between the value of exports and imports – touched $13.93 billion in July to March of fiscal year 2013-14.

However, it was $809 million or 5.5% less than the gap recorded in the corresponding period of previous fiscal year.

The amount required to finance the deficit could take a toll on the country’s foreign currency reserves as the IMF assessed this year’s financing requirement for Pakistan on the basis of a smaller deficit.

The lender estimated a trade deficit of $12.4 billion for the first nine months and for the full year it put the shortfall at $16.3 billion.

Setting this as a base, the IMF assessed that Pakistan would require $7.7 billion in external funds and the country also needed to raise foreign exchange reserves to $9.4 billion.

Pakistan’s imports during the nine-month period were nowhere near the IMF’s projection, though exports were close to the forecast.

In an effort to strengthen its foreign currency reserves, the government on Wednesday raised $2 billion from the international debt market at very high prices. The interest rates that it agreed to pay were 5.6% above the US treasury rates.

Analysts fear that the positive impact of $2 billion on the foreign currency reserves could be largely eroded because of higher than estimated trade deficit.

The widening trade gap would have a direct bearing on the current account deficit, which would be bridged with the help of foreign currency reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan, they added.

For July-March 2013-14, import payments amounted to $33.1 billion, which were $282 million or 0.86% higher than the same period of previous year, according to the PBS. However, imports were $1.5 billion higher than the IMF’s estimate.

Exports in the nine-month period stood at $19.1 billion compared to $18.1 billion in the previous year, recording a growth of 6.1% or $1 billion. The IMF too assessed exports at $19.12 billion.

This year, the government is striving to step up exports to $26.6 billion and keep imports at $43.3 billion, a gap of $16.7 billion.

On a month-on-month basis, exports grew to $2.26 billion in March, $96 million or 4.5% higher than February’s shipments.

Trade deficit in March over February contracted 4.6% to $1.36 billion due to almost negligible growth in imports that stood at $3.63 billion.

On a yearly basis, the trade gap was lower by 12% at $1.36 billion against March last year, said the PBS.

In March, imports stood at $3.6 billion, which were 1.6% or $57 million less than imports made in the corresponding month of previous year.

July-March: Trade deficit at $13.9b, leaves behind IMF estimate – The Express Tribune
 
So this means the gains that rupee made will be neutralized and dollar will start gaining.
 
So this means the gains that rupee made will be neutralized and dollar will start gaining.

Market sentiment says otherwise. USD lost ground to Pak Rupee.

If trade deficit caters to investment in economy (via machinery, infrastructure) and causes growth then it is not necessarily a bad thing.
 
So this means the gains that rupee made will be neutralized and dollar will start gaining.
Depends on whats on the import bill. Is the majority of it finished goods and non essential luxury items then you have a problem. Can someone collect this import data to get a better picture?
 
Market sentiment says otherwise. USD lost ground to Pak Rupee.

If trade deficit caters to investment in economy (via machinery, infrastructure) and causes growth then it is not necessarily a bad thing.

Plus, the article clearly says that the trade deficit is actually down (5.5%) compared to the last year, it's just not as low as IMF had estimated. Additionally, remittances have grown by almost 12% too, so overall we are in a much better shape and improving.
 
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