Technology Warfare, The Future of Conflict and Defense

[sidkhan2]

Technology has always been central to warfare — to how battles are prosecuted and won. Technological innovations, from the invention of gunpowder to the building of nuclear weapons, have constantly reshaped military strategies and the nature of global security. No longer constrained to the nuclear arsenal, warfare in the 21st century will be fueled by advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), cyber warfare, drones, and space militarization. In this blog, we will cover how technology has influenced modern warfare, what pros and cons it has, and what the future looks for global security.

The Evolution of Warfare Technology ​

Throughout history, war has changed. Wars in ancient times were waged with swords, bows and spears. Gunpowder had a significant impact on warfare; it saw the rise of firearms and cannons. The Industrial Revolution also revolutionized warfare with mechanized arms such as tanks, aircraft and submarines. Modern technology warfare is advanced, combining cyber operations, unmanned weapons, and force defense systems deployed in space.

Key Technologies Shaping Modern Warfare​

AI and Autonomous Weapons​

Then AI emerged as a military game-changer. Machine learning algorithms can process large amounts of data, predict enemy movements, and improve decision-making processes. Autonomous weapons, a form of A.I. weaponry, are capable of functioning without human guidance, removing any risk to soldiers by becoming more efficient on the battlefield.

The use of AI in warfare is an ethical grey area. Fully autonomous weapons sometimes called “killer robots” could make life-and-death decisions without human oversight, resulting in unwanted casualties and possible violations of international laws.

Cyber Warfare​

However, cyber warfare has become a significant risk to national security. Countries now conduct digital wars by breaking into enemy networks, breaking critical infrastructure and stealing sensitive information. Cyberattacks can hit power grids, financial systems and military databases, inflicting massive damage without a shot being fired.

One such would-be example is the Stuxnet virus, which allegedly was created by the U.S. and Israel and likely was used to cripple Iran’s nuclear program. Cyber warfare is hard to detect and attribute, making it an enemy of modern warfare.

UAVs and Drones​

This has been developed and changed the way that modern warfare is conductedWith growing capabilities and payloads, carriers, and armed forces. Military drones, like the U.S.-made Predator and Reaper types, have been used extensively in conflicts across the Middle East, striking terrorist organizations with great precision.

Drone warfare has also raised concerns about civilian casualties as well as the legal framework to be applied in their use. Terrorist organisations and non-state actors have started incorporating drones for offensive operations, escalating security concern at the same time.

Hypersonic Weapons​

Hypersonic weapons travel faster than Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound), and are a significant advance in modern warfare. But these weapons will be able to evade traditional missile defense systems, and as such are very effective for strategic attacks.

The U.S., China and Russia are pouring billions of dollars into hypersonic technology, stoking fears of a new arms race. This technology adds fuel to escalation of wars and increases the risk of the collapse of the global dynamics.

Space War and Satellite Defense​

Space has become an arena for military supremacy. Satellites are fundamental for communication, navigation and collecting intelligence. Countries are now developing anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons that can disable enemy satellites, which could disrupt military operations and civilian infrastructure.

The establishment of the U.S. Space Force in 2019 demonstrates the growing prominence of everything from military satellites to weapons built for war in space. China and Russia have also been piloting space-based weapons, which raises the stakes for the militarization of so-called near-earth orbit.

The Advantages of Technology in Warfare​

• Less Human Deaths: AI and autonomous systems can fill the positions of forced soldiers on the battlefield, potentially reducing deaths on the battlefield.
• Advanced Surveillance and Intelligence: The use of drones, satellites, and AI-enabled analytics offers real-time data, increasing both decision-making and battlefield awareness.
• Cyber Deterrent: Having strong offensive cyber capabilities can deter potential attacks.

Challenges and Ethical Considerations​

• Legal and Ethical Considerations: The deployment of AI in warfare raises concerns about accountability and adherence to humanitarian laws.
• Machine Learning and Working Automation: Cyber warfare and machine learning can deny access to crucial services, threatening civilians as well as national economies.
• Loss of Human Control: Over-reliance on autonomous systems can have unintended consequences and lead to strategic miscalculations.

Challenges and Ethical Concerns​

The battle of the future will be more complex than we eliminating and taking out tanks. Here are some possible future developments:

• Machine Learning in Cyber Warfare: Machine learning could be used to create more advanced APT attacks.
• Self-Adapting Military AI: Military AI can develop intelligent defense systems that can automatically adapt to new types of attacks in real-time.
• Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs): Why not join the trend toward laser-based missile defense, counter-drone, and space warfare?
• Biological warfare and genetic engineering – The ability to manipulate genomes may lead to the spread of dangerous pathogens or genetically engineered organisms.

Conclusion​

These technological advancements such as AI and cyber warfare, drones, and space militarization improve the combat capacity but raise numerous ethical, legal, and security issues. With country blurring bright lines over the developed technologies, not only there is a need to develop international guidelines but also it needs to ensure its ethical and safe use, to mitigate unintended consequences. Technological innovation will drive the future of warfare — and that is both a massive opportunity to shape history, and a serious threat to global peace and stability going forward.

 

[Ansha]

At the Intersection of Humanitarian Action and Cyberspace


Digital transformation in the humanitarian sector
What do data transmission protocols at the network layer of the internet have to do with providing food and water to people affected by armed conflict? More than one might initially assume. These protocols are the backbone of digital communication, enabling us to send and receive messages and data across the complex and global system of networks that makes up the internet. Just like a navigation system would guide a vehicle through the road network to its destination, data transmission protocols guide or “route” data packets through a network of physical cables and nodes. The network layer of the internet is, therefore, an essential component of the digital transformation of humanitarian action, enabling everything from the real-time tracking of supply chains bringing food and water to crisis-affected areas to reliable access to lifesaving information for people affected by armed conflict and the collection, sharing, and treatment of personal data to deliver humanitarian services.

The humanitarian sector's digitalization – and the use of the internet and its network layer as a means of communication – has significantly transformed the way organizations communicate, coordinate, and react to crises. But it has not been without its setbacks. For instance, to be truly effective, the network layer of the internet and its protocols need to respond to the unique challenges of humanitarian contexts, such as operating in low-bandwidth or disrupted environments and ensuring data can be transmitted safely and securely while being protected from external surveillance and tampering – two challenges that, as we will discuss later, the current systems are arguably not sufficiently equipped to deal with.



The 2024 Symposium on Cybersecurity and Data Protection in Humanitarian Action
The humanitarian sector can’t solve these highly complex technical challenges alone. It requires cross-sectoral and interdisciplinary dialogue and cooperation with representatives from all relevant sectors. This is why, in 2022, the ICRC’s Delegation for Cyberspace launched a Symposium on Cybersecurity and Data Protection in Humanitarian Action with precisely this goal in mind: to bring experts from various sectors to the table to discuss issues at the intersection of cybersecurity, data protection and humanitarian action openly and freely under Chatham House Rule. After the success of the first edition in November 2022, a second edition of the Symposium was held from January 23 to 25, 2024, in Luxembourg, convening nearly 250 experts representing humanitarian organizations, governments, cybersecurity agencies, data protection authorities, tech companies, civil society, and academia from over 30 countries.

Building on the insights gathered from the first edition, the participants joined sixteen working sessions split into four thematic tracks to discuss concrete challenges – including a working session to discuss how the fundamental humanitarian principles apply to the network layer of the internet. The discussion points and key takeaways from all sixteen working groups have been compiled and summarized in the recently published “Post-Symposium Report.” Here, let’s return to the example above and look at the working group discussing the challenges of neutral, impartial, and independent humanitarian action at the network layer.



So where to go from here? The ICRC has committed itself to accelerating its digital transformation, as per its Institutional Strategy, in line with its fundamental principles. In 2022, the ICRC opened its Delegation for Cyberspace and Global Cyber Hub in Luxembourg, which serves as a research and development hub on technical, legal, and policy issues surrounding the digitalization of humanitarian action. Among many other projects, the Delegation is exploring ways to better understand internet traffic and the benefits of intentional routing for an impartial, neutral, and independent humanitarian organization like the ICRC.



The ICRC will continue facilitating and moderating conversations such as the one on principled humanitarian action at the network layer between relevant stakeholders both by convening cross-sectoral experts at conferences such as the Symposium and by engaging in bilateral and multilateral dialogue and diplomacy.

The ICRC Delegation for Cyberspace and Global Cyber Hub will host a third international Symposium in 2026 to further delve and ponder developments at the nexus of humanitarian action and cyberspace. The international Symposia are supplemented and informed by regional and thematic editions that address particular challenges and solutions encountered in individual contexts. A first regional Symposium was held in Nairobi, Kenya, in November 2024, where a diverse group of East African stakeholders discussed regional challenges related to data protection and the emerging risks and technologies in humanitarian action and highlighted localized solutions. There will be a second regional Symposium in Beijing in late 2025. In June 2025, the Delegation for Cyberspace and Global Cyber Hub and ICRC's Central Tracing Agency will organize a first thematic Symposium to explore the opportunities and challenges of applying technological innovations to assist in locating missing and forcibly disappeared persons.