Stray Thoughts.

[Kompromat]

I haven't written in a while, so i thought I'd write down some observations for keen thoughtful observers and then open it for a debate.

1: Pakistan has made a breakthrough in Afghanistan, but would it lead to peace?

2: CPEC is being developed, maybe not as fast as planned, but it surely is. How does this help us in industrialization?

3: Although TTP has been beaten to pulp. The threat remains, how long can we keep forces deployed on the border with Afghanistan?

4: Color movements by communists are another threat. Non lethal yet but poses a great risk of subversion.

5: Iran's dystopian mullah regime is sheltering BSNM militants. Just note the location of a few high profile assasinations, ostensibly carried out by ISI. Add to that, Kulbhushan, Uzair Baloch, Baba Laadla etc all operating out of Iran.

6: Saudis are backing away from Pakistan under MBS. If you can't see it, you're a fool. What should we do?

7: Why did Turkey not inform us before going into Idlib?

8: Modi has lost his sh.it. How to accelerate it?


Cheers.

 

[StormBreaker]

I haven't written in a while, so i thought I'd write down some observations for keen thoughtful observers and then open it for a debate.

1: Pakistan has made a breakthrough in Afghanistan, but would it lead to peace?

2: CPEC is being developed, maybe not as fast as planned, but it surely is. How does this help us in industrialization?

3: Although TTP has been beaten to pulp. The threat remains, how long can we keep forces deployed on the border with Afghanistan?

4: Color movements by communists are another threat. Non lethal yet but poses a great risk of subversion.

5: Iran's dystopian mullah regime is sheltering BSNM militants. Just note the location of a few high profile assasinations, ostensibly carried out by ISI. Add to that, Kulbhushan, Uzair Baloch, Baba Laadla etc all operating out of Iran.

6: Saudis are backing away from Pakistan under MBS. If you can't see it, you're a fool. What should we do?

7: Why did Turkey not inform us before going into Idlib?

8: Modi has lost his sh.it. How to accelerate it?


Cheers.

1 : I have made some points, which then lead to an in depth discussion by various renowned members of PDF, in the thread

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/doha-peace-pact-2020-us-taliban-deal-analysis.655355/


2 : This is indeed a topic for in-depth discussion, as a matter of fact, i have been studying CPEC’s infrastructure projects and possible hurdles in the form of lack of skills and resources from our side, Will soon come up with an article meant to start a discussion


3 : As Long as Afghan is a Fragile state, that is USA is Present in Afghanistan, either by ANA led proxies or civil war, Afghan border is a hot region and requires strict monitoring. “India’s game of Divide and Conquer”


4 : These scums have been getting quite a lot of attention lately, Government and Judiciary only possess the power to stop their influence to much extent but Judiciary and Gov don’t seem interested...


5 : USA might soon warm up with Iran, Break the peace deal, take a pathway through Iran, Chahbar, Offer trade deal and Chahbar investment, Giving them another decade of influence in Afghanistan as well as Bringing their heavy naval influence to the Arabian sea and Hormouz strait, Gwadar and PLAN/PN on radars, interfering in this region... Iran is another exit for USA, Doha Peace Pact is a drama... Let the Election happen again, This region will see a massive change @Mangus Ortus Novem (Iran’s sanctions are also ticking 12)



6 : I remember posting the same concern some weeks before, This is a developing area, 2-3 months will further give us some clear picture in this regard. Increasing biased relations with Turkey (Anti-OIC) nations are the reason and also the fact that our economy is at least getting stable to some extent that now we feel to speak out loud in front of the former helpers.


7 : As for Turkey, i have a bit of clue, something totally different to what anyone might have even thought here, i am a bit suspicious over Turkey (no offense to Turks here), There are some clear hints that Turkey has been playing a Set-Up game of USA for the last 3-4 years, but my hypothesis felt weak after the latest meeting of Erdogan with Putin, let’s wait for some more time and see how Russia and Turkey’s relations turn out.


8 : Send him address of nearest railway track, he will find it back, probably with a mix of many other “humwatans”

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

I haven't written in a while, so i thought I'd write down some observations for keen thoughtful observers and then open it for a debate.

1: Pakistan has made a breakthrough in Afghanistan, but would it lead to peace?

2: CPEC is being developed, maybe not as fast as planned, but it surely is. How does this help us in industrialization?

3: Although TTP has been beaten to pulp. The threat remains, how long can we keep forces deployed on the border with Afghanistan?

4: Color movements by communists are another threat. Non lethal yet but poses a great risk of subversion.

5: Iran's dystopian mullah regime is sheltering BSNM militants. Just note the location of a few high profile assasinations, ostensibly carried out by ISI. Add to that, Kulbhushan, Uzair Baloch, Baba Laadla etc all operating out of Iran.

6: Saudis are backing away from Pakistan under MBS. If you can't see it, you're a fool. What should we do?

7: Why did Turkey not inform us before going into Idlib?

8: Modi has lost his sh.it. How to accelerate it?


Cheers.

1) there will never be a peace in Afghanistan. Talibans or no Talibans. That's how the people there are. War is in their dna.

2) cpec has been surely purged under current govt of PTI. No doubt about it. But let's see the projects may get expedited or a restart after the visit of President Xi to Pakistan by June this year.

3) if Talibans do take control, atleast Pakistani borders will be secured from ttp militants. Good for Pakistan than. Fencing will be compeleted by than as well. Surely we can take out half of the troops from Afghan border than.

4) keep an eye on them. Make sure that ptm doesn't get any seat in 2023. Giving them free pass for 2 seats in 2018 was a mistake.

5) pressure should be maintain on Iraniam govt to take out anti Pakistani militants from their land. Diplomatic pressure I mean.

6) it was Pakistan who went away from Saudia Arab first. They won't forget Yemen episode easily. For now we have to maintain relations with Saudis at every cost. After the recent stupidity of Mahatir, we need Saudi vote in fatf. Also their economic support is needed for atleast a decade more. Take a follow up for the projects which were promised last year during MBS visit to Pakistan. No heads up in that regard as well.

7) Regaridng Turkey, inform or not, doesn't matter. We should stay away from that Syrian shit at every cost.

8) just wait and watch with popcorns.

 

[American Pakistani]

For number 3, Pakistan should properly train the local police force and make them capable enough to take control of the region. The deployment of army is costing army big chunk from its already tiny budget and making enemies of Pakistan do their politics on army. Example PTM terrorists.

Army should be present but very few. Most of the army should be on the eastern border.

Not an expert but my 2 cents.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

2: CPEC is being developed, maybe not as fast as planned, but it surely is. How does this help us in industrialization?

For CPEC to pay off, we must induce pressure on China to invest in setting up high-value industries in Pakistan. This should include actual turnkey auto and auto parts manufacturing, electronics and anything else in the WEF's top 10 most globally traded goods.

Doing so will allow (1) Pakistan to substitute its import bill with locally produced goods across many consumer segments and (2) drive valuable exports. If (2) kicks off, then our dependence on overseas energy won't bite as much as we would finally have the hard currency to sustain it.

Overall, this should help lead to reversing our perpetual BoP deficits and, in turn, lessen our need for loans.

Don't get me wrong, this isn't a panacea, but at least we should reach a relatively stable macroeconomic level. But we'll still need to do a lot of work in the way of education and capacity building so as to export high-value services (e.g., engineering, medicine, bio-medicine, etc) and rise up the economic ladder.

 

[StormBreaker]

For number 3, Pakistan should properly train the local police force and make them capable enough to take control of the region. The deployment of army is costing army big chunk from its already tiny budget and making enemies of Pakistan do their politics on army. Example PTM terrorists.

Army should be present but very few. Most of the army should be on the eastern border.

Not an expert but my 2 cents.

Paramilitary... Civil forces are not to be tasked with Border tasks. Furthermore, Civil forces comes under civil government, Bureaucracy as it’s deep rooted hands, corruption will lead to infiltrations inside our territory... Simply, police is unreliable and not trustworthy UNFORTUNATELY

For CPEC to pay off, we must induce pressure on China to invest in setting up high-value industries in Pakistan. This should include actual turnkey auto and auto parts manufacturing, electronics and anything else in the WEF's top 10 most globally traded goods.

Doing so will allow (1) Pakistan to substitute its import bill with locally produced goods across many consumer segments and (2) drive valuable exports. If (2) kicks off, then our dependence on overseas energy won't bite as much as we would finally have the hard currency to sustain it.

Overall, this should help lead to reversing our perpetual BoP deficits and, in turn, lessen our need for loans.

Don't get me wrong, this isn't a panacea, but at least we should reach a relatively stable macroeconomic level. But we'll still need to do a lot of work in the way of education and capacity building so as to export high-value services (e.g., engineering, medicine, bio-medicine, etc) and rise up the economic ladder.

There is a very good chance that Corona Virus will act as a catalyst for CPEC and Pakistani Local industry having its investment from China, i am planning to post an article, with some studies on this issue collectively soon.

 

[American Pakistani]

For Saudis(Gulfies) and Iranis. Neither can we break ties with them, nor we should forget that they in recent times are back stabbing us again and again. Iran wrt chahbahar and Saudis in FATF and IOK.

But Iran is our neighbor and big part of our economy relies on Saudi and gulf remits.

Paramilitary... Civil forces are not to be tasked with Border tasks. Furthermore, Civil forces comes under civil government, Bureaucracy as it’s deep rooted hands, corruption will lead to infiltrations inside our territory... Simply, police is unreliable and not trustworthy UNFORTUNATELY


.

Maybe I was not so clear let me explain again.

Not saying borders should be left unattended or there should be complete removal of military. FC should be responsible for Pak afghan border. As for police, how long will we keep harping about police being incompetent. Look how Greece police is thrashing poor refugees. Police has to be trained enough to take care of situation. Army should have minimum presence supervising, training, etc.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

There is a very good chance that Corona Virus will act as a catalyst for CPEC and Pakistani Local industry having its investment from China, i am planning to post an article, with some studies on this issue collectively soon.

Indeed. I think Chinese corporations (to preserve their bottom line) could end up diversifying their supply outside of China. However, Pakistan will be competing with Vietnam, Bangladesh and even India for this investment, so it's key that the Pak Gov't engage the Chinese private sector effectively.

 

[StormBreaker]

Indeed. I think Chinese corporations (to preserve their bottom line) could end up diversifying their supply outside of China. However, Pakistan will be competing with Vietnam, Bangladesh and even India for this investment, so it's key that the Pak Gov't engage the Chinese private sector effectively.

Indeed, that’s precisely what i was suggesting. Aggressive diplomacy required here and some relaxations

For Saudis(Gulfies) and Iranis. Neither can we break ties with them, nor we should forget that they in recent times are back stabbing us again and again. Iran wrt chahbahar and Saudis in FATF and IOK.

But Iran is our neighbor and big part of our economy relies on Saudi and gulf remits.



Maybe I was not so clear let me explain again.

Not saying borders should be left unattended or there should be complete removal of military. FC should be responsible for Pak afghan border. As for police, how long will we keep harping about police being incompetent. Look how Greece police is thrashing poor refugees. Police has to be trained enough to take care of situation. Army should have minimum presence supervising, training, etc.

It’s about the command not about the competency

 

[HRK]

1: Pakistan has made a breakthrough in Afghanistan, but would it lead to peace?

fifty fifty chances, but again we are bit advantageous situation as the space available to anti-Pakistan terrorist in Afghanistan would decrease

2: CPEC is being developed, maybe not as fast as planned, but it surely is. How does this help us in industrialization?

It should but would not lead to a rapid Industrialization we need to understand our own shortcomings in this regards which mainly are
- Administrative and Political structure
- Lack of knowledge base society
- Inconsistent infrastructure development

3: Although TTP has been beaten to pulp. The threat remains, how long can we keep forces deployed on the border with Afghanistan?

they certainly would try but TTP might not be able to make a comeback but some new organization of terror could raise from the Afghanistan which could use sub-Nationalism under the grab of religion

4: Color movements by communists are another threat. Non lethal yet but poses a great risk of subversion.

it's another form of waging the war these are not "Right Movements" but forces of aggression, so to fought the war we must recognize our weakness and limitations and above all need to recognize aggressor ... they are not communist but slaves of $ so successful strike at their funding channels will weak them; direct confrontation is in their favour

5: Iran's dystopian mullah regime is sheltering BSNM militants. Just note the location of a few high profile assasinations, ostensibly carried out by ISI. Add to that, Kulbhushan, Uzair Baloch, Baba Laadla etc all operating out of Iran.

In my opinion our current strategy of engaging the Iran as an State and elimination of unwanted elements within and in the region is correct, we should continue with this, but unfortunately we are sandwich b/w two hegemonic states in the region in case of Iran it is in our benefit if it keep herself over occupied with Middle East situation.

6: Saudis are backing away from Pakistan under MBS. If you can't see it, you're a fool. What should we do?

It's not just Saudis but the whole Middle east is facing a transitional phase of policy shifting and policy adjustments and the bases of this transition is in the security situation of the middle east region they specially the Gulf Countries have created many black holes in the region followings the lead of US.

Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and potentially Lebanon and Egypt are presenting such challenges about which leadership of middle east is not confident to deal with therefore they need security alliance BUT the question
Who would be the Net Regional Security Provider of the Middle East ....???

7: Why did Turkey not inform us before going into Idlib?

they don't need to, it is an issue related to their Territorial Security so they acted accordingly but as brotherly state we should advice them Not to Raise the Temperature so High that it "Burn down Everything"

8: Modi has lost his sh.it. How to accelerate it?

Nope it's just the initial sign of loosing the grip ... He is not down yet ....

 

[StormBreaker]

Indeed. I think Chinese corporations (to preserve their bottom line) could end up diversifying their supply outside of China. However, Pakistan will be competing with Vietnam, Bangladesh and even India for this investment, so it's key that the Pak Gov't engage the Chinese private sector effectively.

BTW Bilal, you should consider expanding Quwa to Strategic news and related developments with economic perspectives blended in as well. You should consider ad marketing

 

[Morpheus]

1: Pakistan has made a breakthrough in Afghanistan, but would it lead to peace?

That all depends on USA and Afghanistan. Before Afghanistan was backing down from the peace deal because of prisoner release. Now USA is trying to back out of it.

https://www.brecorder.com/2020/03/0...tend-to-honour-peace-pact-us-intel-indicates/

Pakistan has done all that it can for this peace deal. If this falls through, next step would to increase key target killings in Afghanistan, and creating chaos for USA.

2: CPEC is being developed, maybe not as fast as planned, but it surely is. How does this help us in industrialization?

The gulf countries don't produce anything. They import everything. Pakistan should be looking to increase its export to those countries. CPEC should provides the much needed logistics infrastructure. However, we need to jump start our industry that have been dormant for years. Agriculture, and textiles should be targeted for Gulf countries. For African countries, we need to start deference manufacturing industry, as well as car industry. These two option alone can generate billions in export for us.

6: Saudis are backing away from Pakistan under MBS. If you can't see it, you're a fool. What should we do?

Saudi started backing away from Pakistan during the era of King Abdullah. Its under this King and his son, they are showing it more openly. Frankly this is not a bad thing. The current King is hated by majority of the Muslims worldwide. Their policies ranging from war, stance on Kashimir, to even local ones (KSA) are not looked at positively. Once MBS gets in full power, shit will hit the fan. There are lots of Prince waiting for the current King to pass away, so they can try to seize power. Even if MBS arrests them, there are many more.

Pakistan should just stay neutral. They should just ignore all the matters pertaining to the Royal family. We should be looking to enhancing our relation with Iran, mainly cause its a neighboring country. We don't need approval from KSA if we want to trade with Iran.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Make or break decade for Pakistan. 2020-2030 ... Do r Die ....

Same applies to the others in the region as well....

Taliban of today are not those of 90s... Trump has already hooked up with these guys... so PhotoOp is coming... TAPI or TAP and off to Gawadar for JP/SK/ASEAN?

Iran can go fully nuclear... sooner than laster if the Persians calculate that it is the only way... KSA will do the same after that...and then of course, Turkiye ...which is a threshold state anyways.... the ThirdActor nucki club is almost real..


Till now the CombinedWestern Paradigm has been the Utility... and as transaction... we got the goodies...

What is Our Utility now?

The creation of India as such vaste state was to keep any independent muslim state down and then awakening China out...

Once again the purpose of India is: Keep Pakistan down and China out!


CPEC/BRI changes mangy things... without the prime realestate in Kabulistan how ...on the ground BRI/CPEC be checked/stopped/sabotagged???

Instablity in the region will continue to unfold... there is chance of attack on OurNorth @Verve ... combined effort of the known ....


We neither have the money nor other means to influence Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan... herein BD has far bigger role... it would be reverse courtesy through the same agent...

BD must find ways to keep Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan in India... if BD goes limp and starts accepting ...then all those tall claims of 8% growth ...Trillionaires by 2030... goes down the drain... BD needs to help!!!

The only way to keep Modi, the Father of India, doing and accelerate HinduRashtra is by ridiculing Hindutavaz... a constant barrage of shaming... will force their hand...and once that happens... BD goes either way...

PNS needs to think... in terms of AfroPakOceanRegion ... and think harder!

We have all the Data that is needed.... Our nacent efforts in AI must be more directed...

 

[ps3linux]

I haven't written in a while, so i thought I'd write down some observations for keen thoughtful observers and then open it for a debate.

1: Pakistan has made a breakthrough in Afghanistan, but would it lead to peace?

2: CPEC is being developed, maybe not as fast as planned, but it surely is. How does this help us in industrialization?

3: Although TTP has been beaten to pulp. The threat remains, how long can we keep forces deployed on the border with Afghanistan?

4: Color movements by communists are another threat. Non lethal yet but poses a great risk of subversion.

5: Iran's dystopian mullah regime is sheltering BSNM militants. Just note the location of a few high profile assasinations, ostensibly carried out by ISI. Add to that, Kulbhushan, Uzair Baloch, Baba Laadla etc all operating out of Iran.

6: Saudis are backing away from Pakistan under MBS. If you can't see it, you're a fool. What should we do?

7: Why did Turkey not inform us before going into Idlib?

8: Modi has lost his sh.it. How to accelerate it?


Cheers.

Important and relevant thoughts, my two cents:

1: Pakistan has made a breakthrough in Afghanistan, but would it lead to peace?


Million dollar question, and depends on lots of factors. All Afghan stake holders sitting together to resolve the issues at hand. Its Iranian/Indian proxies vs Pashtuns in General. There could be no peace without serious stakes for Taliban. Resurgence of ISIS in Afghanistan is a worrying sign.

I will keep my fingers crossed but one thing is a fact, no country on earth has shed more Afghan blood than the afghans themselves. Peace is just a paradox.

If taliban continue to rule like 90s, then I am afraid we are going to see along drawn out war.


2: CPEC is being developed, maybe not as fast as planned, but it surely is. How does this help us in industrialization?

Depends on so many factors political stability, economic policies, bureaucracy will be the major players. Till the time discount rates are below the magic 10% I don’t see much happening. Pakistani Industrialist are more like leeches they are more interested in profits than corporate social responsibility, or interest of the country or its population. Foreign investors that’s a tight rope, their investment comes with hefty repatriation of profits. Our bureaucracy is not only corrupt but incompetent and short sighted as well, instead of inviting foreign investment they should rather be focusing on inviting foreign investment which is focused toward value addition and exports.

I mean what is the fun if a Turkish company comes in invests a $100 million and then take away 30$ million per annum as repatriation of profits. I know there is job creation, tax payment by it doesn’t help with CAD.

One thing going in Pakistan’s favor is its improving international image, india going south. So is china may be the world does realize than with increasing cost of labor in china/Vietnam/Thailand/korea/malasysia they need to diversify and invest in Pakistan as well.

3: Although TTP has been beaten to pulp. The threat remains, how long can we keep forces deployed on the border with Afghanistan?

First part have they been defeated, nurseries are still there mullah fuzla you know and his nurseries. Unless the Govt becomes serious and bring all madaris under some sort of control there is always risk.

For second part I am afraid till the time we have powerful ally Govt in Kabul that’s not happening, even if there is an ally Govt as soon as they are stable they will again question durand line and question the expiry of old agreement. They already have their proxy supporters here. Just a reminder who were invited to and attended Mayor of Kabul’s oath taking ceremony recently.

I am afraid this is going to be a permanent deployment, but the bright side is this will help our forces hone their skills in varied terrain for upcoming challenges. My God there are very serious challenges ahead. Just look at Mideast!

4: Color movements by communists are another threat. Non lethal yet but poses a great risk of subversion.


Socialist are there in every country, even in USA and UK. Their ideals are not really bad, pre marx. The key is not to suppress them by force.

If democracy and those behind so called democracy don’t realize that free lunch era is over, with the advent of “not so social” social media everything could be questioned, every message now has an audience.

Life of a common man is difficult in Pakistan and every successive Govt is making it more difficult, media and un-social media is making him realize that one cartel or the other is exploiting him, so yes it is a risk and can allure masses.


5: Iran's dystopian mullah regime is sheltering BSNM militants. Just note the location of a few high profile assasinations, ostensibly carried out by ISI. Add to that, Kulbhushan, Uzair Baloch, Baba Laadla etc all operating out of Iran.

I don’t know about others but my batch mates and my social circle of faujis had long ago established that biggest risk to Pakistan is neither the east/nor the west but south west and further south.

People in Pakistan are not aware that if there is anything like a blast or target killing in Iran which is labelled to be done by terrorist hiding in Pakistan there are processions in Tehran where Pakistani flag is burned and chants are raised against Pakistan akin to what happens in Delhi.

In a way the covert/overt love fest/sanction between the US/Israel and Iran are keeping them in check otherwise they would have sponsored major problems in Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan, Parachinar and Jhang area. I am sure you could correlate what I mean. The incident in Pindi two years back was not an isolated one it was sponsored and planned outside Pakistan. With the likelihood of a semi-pro-Pakistan setup possibility in Afghanistan, two countries feel their major investment are at risk namely Iran and India.

But every oppressive setup has its expiry date, I am absolutely sure that ayatollahs have long passed that date. As to why they are in power still, well till the time there is a major change in Mideast this setup favors USA/Israel.

6: Saudis are backing away from Pakistan under MBS. If you can't see it, you're a fool. What should we do?


In a way this is good for Pakistan in the long run, provided if we could somehow miraculously severe their ties with their sponsored proxies in Pakistan and their array of terrorist nurseries. Their roots are deep, too deep for my convenience how many media channels are covering the problems in saudia these days.

Just like ayatollahs of Iran the expiry date of Arab bas**ds, sorry I mean Arab Royals is over, I am afraid their time will come before Iranians, what worries me is that Pakistan will be made to get involved in the mess. And that’s really bad. Not only they curse Paksitanis but call our armed forces as mercenaries of course there is truth in the second part but every dead soldier in service or retired is one Pakistani lost for thankless dipsh*ts.

We should learn self reliance.


7: Why did Turkey not inform us before going into Idlib?

Bro this is called national interests, only we Pakistanis are stupid enough to sacrifice our national interests in the name of stupid notion of “Ummah” rest of the countries are less prone to this idiocy.

8: Modi has lost his sh.it. How to accelerate it?

We have already sown/nurtured the seeds, we should just start a massive media campaign on social media and enjoy the show.

We have already reaped the benefits of extremist and illiterate people at helm of affairs almost lost our national and geographical integrity, thank goodness we are almost out of it, thanks to the sacrifices of our jawans/JCOs/NCOs/ mid/low level officers, civilians, minorities, now it is their time to reap the benefits of an illiterate/extremist man at helm of affairs. Frankly I don’t see India with current geography few decades down the road. Religious extremism and oppression of minorities is a dangerous road and never bodes well.

We did not have much choice in electing/selecting such people but they have elected such a setup by choice and they will enjoy it all in the name of anti mulsim/anti every religion.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

@StormBreaker