Bill Longley
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2008
- Messages
- 1,661
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
Strategic Chess moves across Middle East ,Central and South Asia | Reflections and Thoughts
In ancient Greece, Armies, before going to wars, used to go to the temple of Athena who was the Greek goddess of wisdom instead of Aries, who was the god of war. The rationale behind this was that war is a very serious business which needs to be dealt with wisdom instead of emotionalism and unnecessary bloodshed.
Carl von Clausewitz, the great military philosopher of Napoleonic era, defined war as an “extension of political policy byothermeans.” He further simplifies war by saying: "War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will."
Nations make policies which help them secure and further their national interests. Many times these interests clash with those of other states. First, they try diplomacy and when it fails or when diplomacy needs pressure or use of force, war erupts. In the 21st century, war and modes of war have changed. The world is fighting a fourth generational war where states are fighting non-state actors - War and conflicts are characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and politics, soldier and civilian.
After the terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the world entered into a new Global War on Terror. The main characteristic of this war is that it’s between states and non-state actors. The war, which started as ajustwar, soon became a war for achieving strategic Interests which were not among the goals of the US and the global community when they went to war. Iraq was invaded-- the doctrine of preemption and anticipatory self defense, helped the proliferation of war and terrorism in other parts of the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
Another side of this war is that it highlighted and intensified the disputes between Shia and Sunni world resulting in civil wars in Iraq and Syria, and attacks in Bahrain, Pakistan and Lebanon.
After 12 years of this war, the Middle East and Central and South Asia have become potential volcanoes ready to erupt. The past 10 years have destroyed the social fabric of Muslim societies and sectarian biases have risen to their peak.
With 2014, the withdrawal year of NATO and the US from Afghanistan nearing, the region is witnessing new strategic moves and counter moves of regional and global powers in the Middle East, South and Central Asia.
Pakistan, which is geographically a bridge that joins the Middle East, South and Central Asia, is passing through a very critical phase of its history. On its south, lies the Arabian Sea, with the Gawadar Port lying on the entry of the Gulf of Hurmaz or the Arabian Gulf, On the west, lies Iran and Afghanistan, on the east lies India and of course, the great global economic and military power of China lies on its north.
In this era of globalization, developments in one region directly affect regions. The future of the Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia is in the making and will be greatly influenced by:
1. The Arab Spring
2. Normalization of US–Iran relations
3. Possible Israeli attack on Iran with the help of Gulf States
4. Dispute over defense parameter between China and Japan and the latter's main ally - the USA
The Arab Spring has revealed the vulnerability of Arab regimes and the mood of their masses. It has given a direction to the thought process of people even in areas that have not yet been directly affected by the movement. For example, Saudi Arabia has, for the first time, had to give certain rights to its citizen and movements like the right of women to drive are gaining momentum.
By not attacking Syria and holding successful negotiations with Iran over its nuclear issue, the US has created a space in which, if Israel and Saudi Arabia attack Iranian nuclear facilities, the Iranian reaction will be concentrated completely towards Saudi Arabia and Israel, while the US will, after denouncing and condemning the attack, get the benefit of doubt.
Any such attack will in fact work in favor of the US as its condemnation and economic diplomatic leniency will, to some extent neutralize the bad blood with Iran. It will also help the US in furthering relations with Iran and will help it to create a balance of power between the Shias and Sunnis, which can be used as and when needed in the future. As for the small Arab states (GCC), they will go where the US goes as their survival depends on their alliance with it.
Normalization or a healthy relationship with Iran will also help the US reign in Saudi Arabia, which has been presented as a sponsor of Sunni radicalism in the world by the US and western media.
The ambitious Saudi ruling elite have, in many instances in the past, tried to influence the US over core American interests. However, the cold shoulder which the US and Saudi Arabia have given each other over the Syrian issue and then over the Iranian nuclear issue projects the change in US policy.
US know that the Shia Crescent has vast reserves of oil and with rapprochement with Iran; it is opening a window of opportunity to:
1. Contain Sunni Radicalism
2. Introduce a new approach to Central Asia
3. Help encirclement of China, its main challenge in real politicks
Healthy relations with Iran also means the US will get a strategic space to take decisions which it was not able to take earlier due to its alliances with regional Arab players.
Obama's rapprochement with Iran also means, in the near future, as relations improve, Indians and Iranians will become the key players in South Asia and the Gulf instead of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The US, on one side is negotiating with the Taliban, and on the other is developing working relations with other ethnic groups living in Afghanistan and the region, meaning Pakistan will have very limited influence in future outcome of regional issues, while the US will remain master of the game.
With Inclusion of Iran in the scenario, the Great Game in Central Asia will also get affected. Russia, China and the US are the three competitors, competing with each other and it appears the Russians at present are siding with the Americans.
In South Asia, India will be brought to a dominating position. Drone attacks in Pakistan may increase and so will support from the Afghans and Indians to extremist elements against Pakistan. Pakistan will be pressured over the safety of its nukes and to take action against extremist outfits. Pakistan will be sandwiched between a hostile Afghanistan and Pro-India Iran on its west and India on its east.
Summing up the recent developments in the region, Pakistan is facing new challenges with the changing situation. Like ancient Greeks, to fight and win this long strategic war, the Pakistani ruling elite and masses need wisdom more than emotions.
The Pakistani leadership must formulate policies to deal with upcoming issues with an independent mind. Pakistan comes first. The future of Pakistan depends upon the introspection and accountability within masses and the ruling elite.
The writer is a journalist by profession with a Master’s degree in Diplomacy and Strategic Studies
Strategic Chess moves across Middle East ,Central and South Asia | Reflections and Thoughts
In ancient Greece, Armies, before going to wars, used to go to the temple of Athena who was the Greek goddess of wisdom instead of Aries, who was the god of war. The rationale behind this was that war is a very serious business which needs to be dealt with wisdom instead of emotionalism and unnecessary bloodshed.
Carl von Clausewitz, the great military philosopher of Napoleonic era, defined war as an “extension of political policy byothermeans.” He further simplifies war by saying: "War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will."
After the terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the world entered into a new Global War on Terror. The main characteristic of this war is that it’s between states and non-state actors. The war, which started as ajustwar, soon became a war for achieving strategic Interests which were not among the goals of the US and the global community when they went to war. Iraq was invaded-- the doctrine of preemption and anticipatory self defense, helped the proliferation of war and terrorism in other parts of the Middle East, Asia and Africa.
Another side of this war is that it highlighted and intensified the disputes between Shia and Sunni world resulting in civil wars in Iraq and Syria, and attacks in Bahrain, Pakistan and Lebanon.
After 12 years of this war, the Middle East and Central and South Asia have become potential volcanoes ready to erupt. The past 10 years have destroyed the social fabric of Muslim societies and sectarian biases have risen to their peak.
With 2014, the withdrawal year of NATO and the US from Afghanistan nearing, the region is witnessing new strategic moves and counter moves of regional and global powers in the Middle East, South and Central Asia.
Pakistan, which is geographically a bridge that joins the Middle East, South and Central Asia, is passing through a very critical phase of its history. On its south, lies the Arabian Sea, with the Gawadar Port lying on the entry of the Gulf of Hurmaz or the Arabian Gulf, On the west, lies Iran and Afghanistan, on the east lies India and of course, the great global economic and military power of China lies on its north.
In this era of globalization, developments in one region directly affect regions. The future of the Middle East, South Asia and Central Asia is in the making and will be greatly influenced by:
1. The Arab Spring
2. Normalization of US–Iran relations
3. Possible Israeli attack on Iran with the help of Gulf States
4. Dispute over defense parameter between China and Japan and the latter's main ally - the USA
The Arab Spring has revealed the vulnerability of Arab regimes and the mood of their masses. It has given a direction to the thought process of people even in areas that have not yet been directly affected by the movement. For example, Saudi Arabia has, for the first time, had to give certain rights to its citizen and movements like the right of women to drive are gaining momentum.
By not attacking Syria and holding successful negotiations with Iran over its nuclear issue, the US has created a space in which, if Israel and Saudi Arabia attack Iranian nuclear facilities, the Iranian reaction will be concentrated completely towards Saudi Arabia and Israel, while the US will, after denouncing and condemning the attack, get the benefit of doubt.
Any such attack will in fact work in favor of the US as its condemnation and economic diplomatic leniency will, to some extent neutralize the bad blood with Iran. It will also help the US in furthering relations with Iran and will help it to create a balance of power between the Shias and Sunnis, which can be used as and when needed in the future. As for the small Arab states (GCC), they will go where the US goes as their survival depends on their alliance with it.
Normalization or a healthy relationship with Iran will also help the US reign in Saudi Arabia, which has been presented as a sponsor of Sunni radicalism in the world by the US and western media.
The ambitious Saudi ruling elite have, in many instances in the past, tried to influence the US over core American interests. However, the cold shoulder which the US and Saudi Arabia have given each other over the Syrian issue and then over the Iranian nuclear issue projects the change in US policy.
US know that the Shia Crescent has vast reserves of oil and with rapprochement with Iran; it is opening a window of opportunity to:
1. Contain Sunni Radicalism
2. Introduce a new approach to Central Asia
3. Help encirclement of China, its main challenge in real politicks
Healthy relations with Iran also means the US will get a strategic space to take decisions which it was not able to take earlier due to its alliances with regional Arab players.
Obama's rapprochement with Iran also means, in the near future, as relations improve, Indians and Iranians will become the key players in South Asia and the Gulf instead of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The US, on one side is negotiating with the Taliban, and on the other is developing working relations with other ethnic groups living in Afghanistan and the region, meaning Pakistan will have very limited influence in future outcome of regional issues, while the US will remain master of the game.
With Inclusion of Iran in the scenario, the Great Game in Central Asia will also get affected. Russia, China and the US are the three competitors, competing with each other and it appears the Russians at present are siding with the Americans.
In South Asia, India will be brought to a dominating position. Drone attacks in Pakistan may increase and so will support from the Afghans and Indians to extremist elements against Pakistan. Pakistan will be pressured over the safety of its nukes and to take action against extremist outfits. Pakistan will be sandwiched between a hostile Afghanistan and Pro-India Iran on its west and India on its east.
Summing up the recent developments in the region, Pakistan is facing new challenges with the changing situation. Like ancient Greeks, to fight and win this long strategic war, the Pakistani ruling elite and masses need wisdom more than emotions.
The Pakistani leadership must formulate policies to deal with upcoming issues with an independent mind. Pakistan comes first. The future of Pakistan depends upon the introspection and accountability within masses and the ruling elite.
The writer is a journalist by profession with a Master’s degree in Diplomacy and Strategic Studies
Strategic Chess moves across Middle East ,Central and South Asia | Reflections and Thoughts
