Bill Longley
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Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad | State of Union Address and Post US Withdrawal Scenario
Learning from King Pyrrhus of Greece, the US administration has realized that the victory in Afghanistan will be achieved but with unbearable costs. After the invasion of Afghanistan, the US played into the hands of the Northern Alliance, an alliance between the anti-Taliban Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras etc. The alliance is dominated by the Tajiks who nurture a deep-rooted grudge against the Pashtuns. As a result, after the invasion of Afghanistan, came genocide of Pashtuns in the north and the south of the country by new Afghan administration dominated by the non-Pashtuns. Unfortunately, the US and NATO took part in it, albeit unintentionally.
In my Essay, dated September 20, 2010, which was published in the Express Tribune, I gave a model in which the Afghan situation could be resolved where both warring factions would be able to claim victory. I suggested that the US and NATO should withdraw from Afghanistan, having achieved their goal of eliminating Al-Qaeda from Afghanistan and making it go on the run. This allows them to, technically, claim victory.
On the other hand, the withdrawal of NATO and the US would be a victory for the Taliban too; as their stated goal was to fight foreign occupation. Hence, the ISAF withdrawal would be a win-win for both sides and would enable the ISAF to get concessions from the Taliban, who also would like an end to the fighting and to start living in peace.
The West would still have a say via its allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as Afghanistan’s economy is in its worst possible condition and the country would need foreign aid for the perceivable future.
Unfortunately, the NATO’s affairs in Afghanistan have gone from bad to worst. The alliance challenged the Pashtun insurgency, aka Taliban insurgency. That coupled with the country’s corrupt bureaucracy and local warlordism gave way to more unrest. All efforts like troops surge failed and many US allies showed desperation to recall their troops back home.
Learning from the experience and from history, the US started negotiations with Taliban and many Taliban senior leaders were set free to give validation to the negotiations. Hopefully from next year the NATO will start a gradual withdrawal. They have already started packing and sending back their equipment from Afghanistan.
In other of my articles published 12/12/2009 on the South Korean website OHMYNEWS INTERNATIONAL under the [Opinion] A New Game In Central Asia, I wrote that
“…America is not leaving Afghanistan in the next 10 or 20 years. We will see permanent American bases here even if the U.S. withdraws in 2011 as planned…”
According to the apparent US strategy, the country will keep its special force bases in Afghanistan; but in areas dominated by non-Pashtuns. America seems willing to give some control to the Taliban over Pashtun areas in exchange for their cooperation and consent to let the US keep bases in non-Pashtun areas.
Renowned journalist and researcher Musa Khan Jalalzai says:
“According to newspaper reports, this plan was presented by the British Foreign Minister William Hague and discussed with the US administration. On September 9, Ellwood had shared this plan with the Pakistani officials in London. Recently in Kabul, the US ambassador to Afghanistan denied the plan to break up Afghanistan as part of a peace deal with the Taliban, but some of my friends in both the defense and foreign ministries in Kabul confirmed the plan and said the game has started….” (The partition of Afghanistan for peace — Musa Khan Jalalzai, Daily Times Dated Oct 2nd, 2012)
If at all Afghanistan is divided in 2 or more autonomous areas and the Taliban given some-autonomy, it will have adverse effects on Pakistan. Pre-9/11 experiences suggest that sectarian outfits and anti-state elements like the TTP and BLA may get refuge in Afghanistan. So Pakistan should expect a long war after US withdrawal from its neighborhood.
On the other hand, post-withdrawal situation will suit the US, since it will continue to have leverage in the region, particularly with the help of allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE who will provide foreign aid to Afghanistan and will indirectly have a huge influence on the country’s economy.
So far, the US seems to be the winner of the 21st century’s Great Game. Of course, other powers like Russia and China and their allies have their own plans. We will have to wait and see what those plans are and how the Great Game is played and what will come out for the peoples living in this region.
Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad | State of Union Address and Post US Withdrawal Scenario
Learning from King Pyrrhus of Greece, the US administration has realized that the victory in Afghanistan will be achieved but with unbearable costs. After the invasion of Afghanistan, the US played into the hands of the Northern Alliance, an alliance between the anti-Taliban Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras etc. The alliance is dominated by the Tajiks who nurture a deep-rooted grudge against the Pashtuns. As a result, after the invasion of Afghanistan, came genocide of Pashtuns in the north and the south of the country by new Afghan administration dominated by the non-Pashtuns. Unfortunately, the US and NATO took part in it, albeit unintentionally.
In my Essay, dated September 20, 2010, which was published in the Express Tribune, I gave a model in which the Afghan situation could be resolved where both warring factions would be able to claim victory. I suggested that the US and NATO should withdraw from Afghanistan, having achieved their goal of eliminating Al-Qaeda from Afghanistan and making it go on the run. This allows them to, technically, claim victory.
On the other hand, the withdrawal of NATO and the US would be a victory for the Taliban too; as their stated goal was to fight foreign occupation. Hence, the ISAF withdrawal would be a win-win for both sides and would enable the ISAF to get concessions from the Taliban, who also would like an end to the fighting and to start living in peace.
The West would still have a say via its allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as Afghanistan’s economy is in its worst possible condition and the country would need foreign aid for the perceivable future.
Unfortunately, the NATO’s affairs in Afghanistan have gone from bad to worst. The alliance challenged the Pashtun insurgency, aka Taliban insurgency. That coupled with the country’s corrupt bureaucracy and local warlordism gave way to more unrest. All efforts like troops surge failed and many US allies showed desperation to recall their troops back home.
Learning from the experience and from history, the US started negotiations with Taliban and many Taliban senior leaders were set free to give validation to the negotiations. Hopefully from next year the NATO will start a gradual withdrawal. They have already started packing and sending back their equipment from Afghanistan.
In other of my articles published 12/12/2009 on the South Korean website OHMYNEWS INTERNATIONAL under the [Opinion] A New Game In Central Asia, I wrote that
“…America is not leaving Afghanistan in the next 10 or 20 years. We will see permanent American bases here even if the U.S. withdraws in 2011 as planned…”
According to the apparent US strategy, the country will keep its special force bases in Afghanistan; but in areas dominated by non-Pashtuns. America seems willing to give some control to the Taliban over Pashtun areas in exchange for their cooperation and consent to let the US keep bases in non-Pashtun areas.
Renowned journalist and researcher Musa Khan Jalalzai says:
“According to newspaper reports, this plan was presented by the British Foreign Minister William Hague and discussed with the US administration. On September 9, Ellwood had shared this plan with the Pakistani officials in London. Recently in Kabul, the US ambassador to Afghanistan denied the plan to break up Afghanistan as part of a peace deal with the Taliban, but some of my friends in both the defense and foreign ministries in Kabul confirmed the plan and said the game has started….” (The partition of Afghanistan for peace — Musa Khan Jalalzai, Daily Times Dated Oct 2nd, 2012)
If at all Afghanistan is divided in 2 or more autonomous areas and the Taliban given some-autonomy, it will have adverse effects on Pakistan. Pre-9/11 experiences suggest that sectarian outfits and anti-state elements like the TTP and BLA may get refuge in Afghanistan. So Pakistan should expect a long war after US withdrawal from its neighborhood.
On the other hand, post-withdrawal situation will suit the US, since it will continue to have leverage in the region, particularly with the help of allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE who will provide foreign aid to Afghanistan and will indirectly have a huge influence on the country’s economy.
So far, the US seems to be the winner of the 21st century’s Great Game. Of course, other powers like Russia and China and their allies have their own plans. We will have to wait and see what those plans are and how the Great Game is played and what will come out for the peoples living in this region.
Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad | State of Union Address and Post US Withdrawal Scenario
