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Russia to Include Pakistan in the SCO Puzzle
Reference:Russia to Include Pakistan in the SCO Puzzle | PKKH.tv
Quite unexpectedly, Russia has been pursuing closer ties with countries which have been seen entirely as US clients. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov just returned from an ice-breaking visit to Iraq, where different ideas for economic cooperation were discussed. And Russian President Dmitry Medvedev received his Pakistani counterpart, Asif Ali Zardari, with whom he discussed a range of economic issues, including cooperation in the energy sector (electricity and gas) as well as industrial projects. But the main declaration from the Moscow meeting was political and not economic. Medvedev publicly endorsed Pakistans claim to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This is a remarkable move indicating a new stage in the organizations development.
Russian-Pakistani relations have historically been frosty, but have improved recently. The additional intrigue surrounding Zardaris Moscow meeting stemmed from the crisis in relations between Pakistan and its main patron, the US. Despite all differences in the past, rooted mainly in the experience from the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, current Russian interest in Pakistan is tied to attempts to clarify the Afghan situation, which determines the atmosphere in Central Asia. For now it is becoming increasingly unpredictable. The US strategy is vague, the situation inside Afghanistan is unstable, and the possibility of coordinating efforts with neighboring states remains unclear.
Russia and neighboring countries are not interested in a quick US withdrawal, as it could lead to the Talibans return to power, or probably even worse chaotic civil war in the country with inevitable spillover into all bordering territories. Meanwhile, neighboring countries do not want US bases permanently stationed in Afghanistan either. Russia, China, India and Iran have all supported a regional solution, advocating in the middle-term a reliance on authorities in Kabul rather than on Western troops. The format of that solution is very vague. Zardaris Moscow trip, made immediately after the strategic Chinese-Pakistani consultations in late April and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechis visit to Moscow last week, was expected to give a boost to the discussions.
One of Moscows ideas for a regional solution involves an enhanced role for the SCO, the most representative organization in the region. During the upcoming SCO summit in Astana in June, member states are expected to lift the unofficial moratorium on the admission of new members that was imposed in 2006. India and Pakistan are the most likely candidates. The possible admission of those two countries is a delicate issue because of their very tense bilateral relations. Until recently, Russia would have liked to see India become a full member, while China preferred Pakistan. Medvedevs statement shows that Moscows position is actually changing in favor of Islamabad, while New Delhis endorsement remains. Indian nervous reaction is easy to predict, but it can be addressed by the Chinese lifting their objections to Indias membership.
The Afghan question is perceived as something that has the potential to unite the SCO member states. The interests of India and Pakistan in the region are unlikely to coincide, but a multilateral format could ease their bilateral tensions by introducing external factors. Besides, if relations between Pakistan and the US continue to deteriorate, Islamabad could be forced to be more active in diversifying its contacts.
To be frank, the US has good reason to mistrust its Asian partner, due to its very dubious commitment to fight terrorists. At the same time, the enormous complicity of Pakistani society must be taken into account putting more pressure on Islamabad to force it to up the ante in its fight against the radicals might fatally destabilize the country and its government. The Pakistani leaderships efforts to reduce external pressure by diversifying its international contacts have provoked ire in Washington, but it can be useful in order to restore a certain ability to govern in a very tricky region.
Reference:Russia to Include Pakistan in the SCO Puzzle | PKKH.tv
Quite unexpectedly, Russia has been pursuing closer ties with countries which have been seen entirely as US clients. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov just returned from an ice-breaking visit to Iraq, where different ideas for economic cooperation were discussed. And Russian President Dmitry Medvedev received his Pakistani counterpart, Asif Ali Zardari, with whom he discussed a range of economic issues, including cooperation in the energy sector (electricity and gas) as well as industrial projects. But the main declaration from the Moscow meeting was political and not economic. Medvedev publicly endorsed Pakistans claim to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This is a remarkable move indicating a new stage in the organizations development.
Russian-Pakistani relations have historically been frosty, but have improved recently. The additional intrigue surrounding Zardaris Moscow meeting stemmed from the crisis in relations between Pakistan and its main patron, the US. Despite all differences in the past, rooted mainly in the experience from the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, current Russian interest in Pakistan is tied to attempts to clarify the Afghan situation, which determines the atmosphere in Central Asia. For now it is becoming increasingly unpredictable. The US strategy is vague, the situation inside Afghanistan is unstable, and the possibility of coordinating efforts with neighboring states remains unclear.
Russia and neighboring countries are not interested in a quick US withdrawal, as it could lead to the Talibans return to power, or probably even worse chaotic civil war in the country with inevitable spillover into all bordering territories. Meanwhile, neighboring countries do not want US bases permanently stationed in Afghanistan either. Russia, China, India and Iran have all supported a regional solution, advocating in the middle-term a reliance on authorities in Kabul rather than on Western troops. The format of that solution is very vague. Zardaris Moscow trip, made immediately after the strategic Chinese-Pakistani consultations in late April and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechis visit to Moscow last week, was expected to give a boost to the discussions.
One of Moscows ideas for a regional solution involves an enhanced role for the SCO, the most representative organization in the region. During the upcoming SCO summit in Astana in June, member states are expected to lift the unofficial moratorium on the admission of new members that was imposed in 2006. India and Pakistan are the most likely candidates. The possible admission of those two countries is a delicate issue because of their very tense bilateral relations. Until recently, Russia would have liked to see India become a full member, while China preferred Pakistan. Medvedevs statement shows that Moscows position is actually changing in favor of Islamabad, while New Delhis endorsement remains. Indian nervous reaction is easy to predict, but it can be addressed by the Chinese lifting their objections to Indias membership.
The Afghan question is perceived as something that has the potential to unite the SCO member states. The interests of India and Pakistan in the region are unlikely to coincide, but a multilateral format could ease their bilateral tensions by introducing external factors. Besides, if relations between Pakistan and the US continue to deteriorate, Islamabad could be forced to be more active in diversifying its contacts.
To be frank, the US has good reason to mistrust its Asian partner, due to its very dubious commitment to fight terrorists. At the same time, the enormous complicity of Pakistani society must be taken into account putting more pressure on Islamabad to force it to up the ante in its fight against the radicals might fatally destabilize the country and its government. The Pakistani leaderships efforts to reduce external pressure by diversifying its international contacts have provoked ire in Washington, but it can be useful in order to restore a certain ability to govern in a very tricky region.
