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The US has a long and bloody history of shootings and crimes committed due to the easy access citizens have to guns, including the recent Pennsylvania case where a gunman went on a murder spree killing his ex-wife and five other relatives. The many gun-related violent crimes have, however, led to the escalation of the debate over gun control measures in the recent past.
But the US, which by the second amendment gives its citizens the right to bear firearms, also allows them to carry concealed weapons in public. While in some states a permit to carry concealed firearms is mandatory, others have no such check in place.
In a bid to demystify the notion that the right to carry (RTC) or concealed carry laws lead to fewer crimes, making society safer, a recent research conducted at Stanford Law School links these laws to an increase in crime rates.
A popular gun lobby mantra, often quoted by republican representatives to water down gun control measures, echoes the findings of a 1997 research, led by academics John Lott and David Mustard, which appraised the RTC, stating that concealed carry laws led to fewer crimes. This notion was later challenged by a 2004 report by the National Research Council (US) which revealed that there was not enough data to link RTC laws to crime rates.
However, the Stanford study, led by John J Donohue, professor, Stanford Law School, extended the study of NRC to arrive at a clear conclusion. While the National Research Council's study also considered the same data Lott and Mustard referred to (crime statistics from 1978-2000), Donohue extended the data set by including crime statistics between 1999 and 2010 in his study and concluded that the RTC laws led to more crimes.
In a stark contrast to the 'more guns, less crime' theory, the Stanford research found that RTC laws are associated with an 8% rise in the incidence of aggravated assault. However, Donohue says that some statistical methods also show a jump of 33% in aggravated assault cases involving a firearm after the passage of RTC laws.
Talking about the fallacy of the previous research, Donohue said, "The initial problem was that crimes spiked enormously from 1985-1992 because of the crack cocaine epidemic."
The crack epidemic in the US was fuelled by a cheap variant of cocaine, which acquired the street name 'crack'. The drug led to a crime wave during the late 80s because of its cheap availability and the desire among the economically weaker sections of the country to make a quick buck by dealing with the drug.
Donohue adds, "The early adopters of the RTC laws had much less of a problem with crack, so when Lott and Mustard compared the RTC and non-RTC states, it looked as though the RTC states were doing better in fighting crime. Indeed, they were, but it was only because the non-RTC states were struggling with the crack cocaine epidemic and not be cause they didn't have RTC laws."
The study also revealed that among states that adopted concealed carry laws, cases of rape, aggravated assault, and larceny were all up by 15 16% relative to non-RTC states. How ever, the findings also are heavily reliant on the statistical methodology used for the research. Says Donohue, "When linking RTC laws to an increasing crime rate, many states show strong evidence of an increase in crimes while others show weak evidence of an increase (or even weak evidence of crime declines in scattered cases). In such a situation, one has to make informed judgments about the best models to arrive at a conclusion."
However, what is startling about the revelations in the study dealt with the question why the right to conceal a firearm leads to criminal tendencies.
RTC laws not only help put guns in the hands of criminals, but also in creases the propensity of an individual, who would otherwise not exhibit aberrant behaviour, to commit a crime.
Stay updated on the go with The Times of India’s mobile apps. Click here to download it for your device.
Research roundup - The gun frenzy - The Times of India
But the US, which by the second amendment gives its citizens the right to bear firearms, also allows them to carry concealed weapons in public. While in some states a permit to carry concealed firearms is mandatory, others have no such check in place.
In a bid to demystify the notion that the right to carry (RTC) or concealed carry laws lead to fewer crimes, making society safer, a recent research conducted at Stanford Law School links these laws to an increase in crime rates.
A popular gun lobby mantra, often quoted by republican representatives to water down gun control measures, echoes the findings of a 1997 research, led by academics John Lott and David Mustard, which appraised the RTC, stating that concealed carry laws led to fewer crimes. This notion was later challenged by a 2004 report by the National Research Council (US) which revealed that there was not enough data to link RTC laws to crime rates.
However, the Stanford study, led by John J Donohue, professor, Stanford Law School, extended the study of NRC to arrive at a clear conclusion. While the National Research Council's study also considered the same data Lott and Mustard referred to (crime statistics from 1978-2000), Donohue extended the data set by including crime statistics between 1999 and 2010 in his study and concluded that the RTC laws led to more crimes.
In a stark contrast to the 'more guns, less crime' theory, the Stanford research found that RTC laws are associated with an 8% rise in the incidence of aggravated assault. However, Donohue says that some statistical methods also show a jump of 33% in aggravated assault cases involving a firearm after the passage of RTC laws.
Talking about the fallacy of the previous research, Donohue said, "The initial problem was that crimes spiked enormously from 1985-1992 because of the crack cocaine epidemic."
The crack epidemic in the US was fuelled by a cheap variant of cocaine, which acquired the street name 'crack'. The drug led to a crime wave during the late 80s because of its cheap availability and the desire among the economically weaker sections of the country to make a quick buck by dealing with the drug.
Donohue adds, "The early adopters of the RTC laws had much less of a problem with crack, so when Lott and Mustard compared the RTC and non-RTC states, it looked as though the RTC states were doing better in fighting crime. Indeed, they were, but it was only because the non-RTC states were struggling with the crack cocaine epidemic and not be cause they didn't have RTC laws."
The study also revealed that among states that adopted concealed carry laws, cases of rape, aggravated assault, and larceny were all up by 15 16% relative to non-RTC states. How ever, the findings also are heavily reliant on the statistical methodology used for the research. Says Donohue, "When linking RTC laws to an increasing crime rate, many states show strong evidence of an increase in crimes while others show weak evidence of an increase (or even weak evidence of crime declines in scattered cases). In such a situation, one has to make informed judgments about the best models to arrive at a conclusion."
However, what is startling about the revelations in the study dealt with the question why the right to conceal a firearm leads to criminal tendencies.
RTC laws not only help put guns in the hands of criminals, but also in creases the propensity of an individual, who would otherwise not exhibit aberrant behaviour, to commit a crime.
Stay updated on the go with The Times of India’s mobile apps. Click here to download it for your device.
Research roundup - The gun frenzy - The Times of India
