President Trump is good for India and bad for China, Pakistan. Here's why

[ashok321]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...a-pakistan-heres-why/articleshow/55329942.cms

Donald Trump is at the Oval Office and the big question on India's mind is how should it open up to an American president who mimicked an Indian call centre worker in one of his campaign speeches?

Trump, in most of his campaign speeches, has railed against outsourcing, and has vowed to right trade imbalances of the sort that India currently enjoys with the US.

But Trump couldn't be all that bad for India, says former US diplomat William H Avery. Infact, the billionaire could be more of a problem for China and Pakistan, he adds.

Double whammy for China

China and Pakistan, Avery says, have been using the US as a cash cow for decades: China by running a huge trade surplus ($366 billion in 2015); Pakistan by soaking up US aid (more than $30 billion since 2002), while pretending to fight radical Islam. All signs indicate that Trump would cut down on the flow of cash to both these countries.


seen rapid growth in its manufacturing sector over the same period. Trump is electorally committed to bringing a material number of lost manufacturing jobs back to the US; the only way he can do so will be to offset Asia’s (especially China’s) labour cost advantage in manufacturing with a combination of tariff and non-tariff barriers.

Such a move would come at the worst possible time for China, when a decades-long credit-fuelled investment boom may finally be turning to bust. For China, the potential outcomes of a trade war with the US range from sharply slower growth (best case scenario) to outright recession, which in turn could spark political unrest and, in a worst case scenario, revolution.

Would India lose some technology and outsourcing jobs if Trump Administration abandons US free trade policies? Perhaps, though it is harder to slap a tariff on a piece of code coming over the internet from Hyderabad than on a piece of machinery coming over the ocean from Shanghai. Regardless, in the zero-sum great game of Asian powers, China’s loss is India’s gain. And China stands to lose big under President Trump.

Bad news for Pakistan
India’s other troublesome neighbour, Avery says, is also set to be a big loser in a post-election shake-up of US relations in Asia. Trump has called Pakistan “probably the most dangerous [country]” and has said that “you have to get India involved; India is the check to Pakistan… I would start talking at that level very very quickly”. This statement is a sharp reversal of tone from presidential candidates toward India-Pakistan relationship. Just eight years ago, Barack Obama was hinting at the US mediating in Kashmir.

Since then, as president, he has avoided talk of mediation and stuck to the long-standing Washington script of simply encouraging the two sides to “improve their bilateral relations”. Now, however, the man who could be Obama’s successor is tossing out that script and saying, in effect, Pakistan is a problem, and India is part of the solution to that problem: a profound humiliation for Islamabad.

Trump would be more likely than any of his recent predecessors to try to influence Pakistan’s policy by threatening to cut off US aid. Trump implied as much when commenting on the case of Dr Shakil Afridi, who infuriated Pakistan’s government for allegedly helping the CIA definitively locate Osama bin Laden in 2011; Afridi has languished in a Pakistan jail ever since. "I think I would get him out in two minutes. I would tell them, ‘let him out’ and I’m sure they’d let him out, because we give a lot of aid to Pakistan," said Trump.

 

[ashok321]

Will President Trump be good or bad for Pakistan?
http://www.dawn.com/news/1295237/will-president-trump-be-good-or-bad-for-pakistan


Not one to mince words, in 2012, an angry Trump had tweeted: "When will Pakistan apologise to us for providing safe sanctuary to Osama Bin Laden for 6 years?! Some 'ally'."

The candidate also seems to have a soft spot for India. Just last month, he attended an elaborate charity event hosted by Republican Hindu Coalition (RHC) and promised that India and the US would be “best friends” if he were president.

So, what would a Trump presidency mean for Pakistan?

Here's what some experts and commentators think.


Space for hawks?
It will depend on how foreign policy experts shape his regional agenda. If he gives space to hawks, it is possible Pakistan may face repercussions over its association with militant groups. On the flipside, he has not spoken about Pakistan that much so there is a chance his Middle East agenda takes up most of his policy space and we end up getting ignored.

— Umair Javed
Umair Javed is a freelance columnist.


Losing patience
The US-Pakistan relationship was destined to be downgraded regardless of who won the election. But with Trump, the relationship could face some very trying times. Trump will have no patience for Pakistan's approach to terror. He is unlikely to support aid without conditions. At best, we could see a lot of tough love from Trump. At worst, we could see an increasingly tense relationship. The US-Pakistan relationship won't collapse under Trump, but it could face unprecedented challenges.

— Michael Kugelman
Michael Kugelman is a senior associate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington, DC.

Muscle flexing ahead?
We have no idea how a Trump presidency would affect Pakistan, because he has not really talked about policy during this election. We aren't really sure who his team is going to be. Reports suggest Newt Gingrich is his top pick for Secretary of State. Gingrich did bring up Pakistan on stage at the June Republican Convention. He paraphrased and decontextualised a PEW study to say that 16 million Pakistanis support ISIS. He thought that was an important thing to mention. I guess that's a precursor to the kind of muscle flexing we might see if Gingrich becomes Secretary of State.

— Sahar Habib Ghazi
Sahar Habib Ghazi is the managing editor at 'Global Voices'.




US presidency under Donald Trump to boost strategic ties with India

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...egic-ties-with-india/articleshow/55331193.cms


"I am a big fan of Hindu and I am a big fan of India. If I am elected president, the Indian and Hindu community would have a true friend at the White House," he had said at an event organized by the Hindu Republican Coalition.


WASHINGTON: US presidency under Donald Trump, a confessed big fan of India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is most likely to boost Indo-US strategic relationship with a special emphasis on defense ties and counter-terrorism cooperation.

Trump, 70, had recently described India as "key strategic ally" and looks forward to deepening the diplomatic and military cooperation that is the shared interest of both countries.

The billionaire businessman who has lauded economic policies of Modi had said he wants to work with him. At an event in New Jersey less than a month from now, Trump had promised to the Indian-American community that India would find a true friend at the White House.

"I am a big fan of Hindu and I am a big fan of India. If I am elected president, the Indian and Hindu community would have a true friend at the White House," he had said at an event organized by the Hindu Republican Coalition.
Trump said he appreciated "great friend India in the fight against radical Islamic terrorism."

India has experienced firsthand "brutality of terror" in the past "including the mayhem in Mumbai," he said and described the 2008 Mumbai terror attack and that on Indian Parliament in 2001 as "absolutely outrageous" and terrible.

"We will defeat radical Islamic terrorism. We will stand soldier-to-soldier in this fight. This is so important in the age of ISIS," he said.

"India's is the world's largest democracy and is a natural ally of the US. Under a Trump Administration, we are going to become even better friends. In fact, I will take the word even out because we are going to be best friends. I look forward to working with Prime Minister Modi, who has been very energetic in reforming the economy and bureaucracy. Great man. I applaud him," he said.

"I look forward to doing some serious bureaucratic trimming right here in the US, believe me, we need it most," Trump said.

"Your great Prime Minister has been a pro-growth leader for India. He has simplified the tax code, cut the taxes and the economy is strong growing at 7 per cent year. Excellent," he said.

On the eve of the November 8 general elections, a key military advisor to the Trump said that India will have an important role to play in the Trump Administration's Asia-Pacific policy of "peace through strength."

"This is a country that shares our values, this is a country that shares a lot of geo-political interest and I think, his (Trump's) work is going to be continuing the tradition of Bush Administration which made a lot of progress in that regard," Alexander Gray, a military advisor and author of several of the ambitious defence policies of Trump, said.
"We (a Trump Administration) would be looking to strengthen not just the cultural and economic aspect, but also on the defense side, there is so much common ground with India. At a time when India's foreign policy is changing because of China and Pakistan, because of Islamic terrorism, we need to be there to greet them with open arms. I think the Trump Administration is ready to do that," Gray said.

 

[52051]

Nobody in China cares what trump can do to China, since he can do nothing without backfire themselves serverly, so stop always try to pitting China against trump-america to claim a ww3 is coming or so.

+45% tax on everything imported from China? Good, thats against WTO rule and go ahead and feel free to try that, thats basically means the US will not honor the treats they signed.

Considering the fact US dollar is a credit-based currency, backed by two things, one is oil (he pissed alots of middle east oil suppliers) and the other is the stable of trade.

With that kind of illogical nonsense US can say good bye to the US dollar world reserve currency status and give it to RMB instead, so he actually do alot of good to China.

So stop putting nonsense about how trump will do China whatever shit, China now account for half of the world industry and is size larger than the US, the US can do nothing without burn themselves, regardless of Trump or Hillary or whatever.

Is anything, the Trump's us will retreat from asia, giving up the so-called TPP and Pivoting (which are all obama/hillary's legacy specially targeting China and failed miserably not because they have not tried, but because the US dont have that power), and Trump's economy policy wont do much to China either.

So I only see postive things from a trump victory: Majority rights matter more than minority's rights, Great Power should care themselves more, cares lesser powers less.

The world has been fooled by Commuism nonsense of international working class union and Democrazy nonsense like multi-cutlurism whatever bullshit for too long, and ironially both are jew invention.

 

[jetray]

long term policy matters wont change. US will continue as it is except few cosmetic foreign policy changes & big on domestic appeasement.

 

[PakGuns]

A butt-hurt o metre would crash here if used....

 

[dlclong]

Don't understand,

Why do every thing India must contrast to China,

In China, no one CARES about you
mental disorder

 

[oprih]

Trump is a businessman, he knows what's best for his business and that is to transfer the headquarters of his company to China.

 

[Qutb-ud-din Aybak]

Pakistan don't listen to anyone when it comes to it's own interests. iran-pakistan gas pipeline project,shamsi air base,Dr. shakeel afridi,Haqqani network etc. we faced their pressure but we resisted any demand against our national interests.
US aid to pakistan had already been reduced to nothing. Infact US would need pakistan unless afghanistan is not stable whether it's trump or hillary.
they won't like pakistan to join russia iran club against US interests. US policy regarding pakistan won't change. they can't pressurize us anymore nor can they take any actions against us. if they do then afghanistan and syria bye bye.

 

[Gijoe]

India with it dreaming in the pipe of marijuana.

 

[forsigmar]

Nobody in China cares what trump can do to China, since he can do nothing without backfire themselves serverly, so stop always try to pitting China against trump-america to claim a ww3 is coming or so.

+45% tax on everything imported from China? Good, thats against WTO rule and go ahead and feel free to try that, thats basically means the US will not honor the treats they signed.

Considering the fact US dollar is a credit-based currency, backed by two things, one is oil (he pissed alots of middle east oil suppliers) and the other is the stable of trade.

With that kind of illogical nonsense US can say good bye to the US dollar world reserve currency status and give it to RMB instead, so he actually do alot of good to China.

So stop putting nonsense about how trump will do China whatever shit, China now account for half of the world industry and is size larger than the US, the US can do nothing without burn themselves, regardless of Trump or Hillary or whatever.

Is anything, the Trump's us will retreat from asia, giving up the so-called TPP and Pivoting (which are all obama/hillary's legacy specially targeting China and failed miserably not because they have not tried, but because the US dont have that power), and Trump's economy policy wont do much to China either.

So I only see postive things from a trump victory: Majority rights matter more than minority's rights, Great Power should care themselves more, cares lesser powers less.

The world has been fooled by Commuism nonsense of international working class union and Democrazy nonsense like multi-cutlurism whatever bullshit for too long, and ironially both are jew invention.

The WTO is a jew invention. WTO is also designed to destroy jobs in developed western countries, for undeveloped ones under the idea of helping the poor.

China also violates the WTO, so I wouldn't be against US leaving the WTO anyway.

China is rapidly devaluing its currency. Check its Currency Charts against the US dollar. Who wants to hold a devaluing currency? What companies does china have that have high profit margins?

“Huawei is the exact opposite. They are trying to claw themselves out of the low-end, low-margin into the higher range with you’d think beefier margins.”
http://fortune.com/2016/04/01/the-problem-with-huaweis-great-earnings/

I doubt Huawei can ever get profit margins like Apple, even though Apple is in decline.
All Huawei can do is go after other asian companies like Samsung, due to Samsung's terrible management.

China doesn't have good international car companies, doesn't have a high profit semiconductor industry, no airline industry. US will be stronger under trump.

 

[SrNair]

Trump is good for US ,US only.
Trump only cares American Interest.

India is not revolving around the goodwill of some foreign power.

 

[Great Sachin]

A butt-hurt o metre would crash here if used....

Agree with you

 

[IceCold]

There is alot of difference in public rhetoric's and when you actually get behind the desk in the oval office. Trump will realise the same in January when he gets there. For the time being he needs to deal with the americans who does not consider him as their president.

 

[pakdefender]

Wait till he kicks out all those American job stealing H1B Indians

Ashok will probably be the first to get the kick

 

[LeGenD]

Nobody in China cares what trump can do to China, since he can do nothing without backfire themselves serverly, so stop always try to pitting China against trump-america to claim a ww3 is coming or so.

+45% tax on everything imported from China? Good, thats against WTO rule and go ahead and feel free to try that, thats basically means the US will not honor the treats they signed.

Considering the fact US dollar is a credit-based currency, backed by two things, one is oil (he pissed alots of middle east oil suppliers) and the other is the stable of trade.

With that kind of illogical nonsense US can say good bye to the US dollar world reserve currency status and give it to RMB instead, so he actually do alot of good to China.

So stop putting nonsense about how trump will do China whatever shit, China now account for half of the world industry and is size larger than the US, the US can do nothing without burn themselves, regardless of Trump or Hillary or whatever.

Is anything, the Trump's us will retreat from asia, giving up the so-called TPP and Pivoting (which are all obama/hillary's legacy specially targeting China and failed miserably not because they have not tried, but because the US dont have that power), and Trump's economy policy wont do much to China either.

So I only see postive things from a trump victory: Majority rights matter more than minority's rights, Great Power should care themselves more, cares lesser powers less.

The world has been fooled by Commuism nonsense of international working class union and Democrazy nonsense like multi-cutlurism whatever bullshit for too long, and ironially both are jew invention.

You make it sound like as if US is irrelevant to China in economic matters; your assumption is utterly wrong.

American economic policies and decisions affect the entire world and China is part of it. It remains to be seen how Donald Trump will approach China in his dealings but he has made it clear that he will increase tariffs on Chinese goods in the American markets in order to stimulate competition in them which is a sound decision on his part. After that, China will be left with no choice but to improve the quality of its products in order to make them more competitive in the American markets.

Another thing is that China does not allow its currency to be valued by the global markets, like other countries; this tactic facilitates lower prices of Chinese goods in both domestic and international markets. More importantly, when yuan depreciates, it affects countries that export their goods to China; their goods appreciate in prices in the Chinese markets accordingly, making them less appealing to Chinese consumers. Problem is that China does not takes the entire world into confidence when it depreciates its currency. To others, this is like caught with their pants down. Trump perceives this as cheating.

To clarify the above in another way: Devaluation of yuan affects American companies that export to China, because their products will be more expensive for Chinese consumers to buy. On the other hand, exports from China are likely to be cheaper for American consumers, and this hurts American manufacturers.

So what do you expect from Trump? Allow China to have its way?