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Potpourri


Dr Farrukh Saleem
Sunday, September 06, 2015


Potpourri

Capital suggestion

GHQ: Over the past two years, Pak Army’s hard power – battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery – hasn’t changed much. Pak Army’s soft power-image, public approval ratings, personal popularity of the chief-is now at its peak.

Three things: One, the GHQ is moving from arresting suspects on List B towards arresting suspects on List A (Dr Asim is the first). Two, the operation in Karachi has moved from being ‘targeted’ to ‘comprehensive’. Three, there’s a distinct move from ‘terrorism’ to ‘corruption’ (on August 25, for the first time, General Raheel Sharif publicly used the term ‘corruption’).

The billion dollar question is: what is the logical end? The beginning was a vacuum created out of governance failure. What followed was the army getting sucked into the vacuum. In 2013, governance failure in Karachi resulted in the killing of 2,507 (the highest number of any major city in the world). In 2015, post the Rangers operation, the number of people killed in Karachi has dropped by a wholesome 80 percent to around 414 so far. But, what is the logical end? Who is going to build the civilian capacity to govern?

PML-N: The ruling party remains suspicious – deeply suspicious – of the GHQ’s motives. Is the current drive to ‘cleanse’ the society a cover for something more incendiary in the future? On the ground, there’s been an incremental shifting of power from Islamabad to Rawalpindi. On the ground, there’s been an incremental surrender of authority and abdication of responsibility.

PM Nawaz Sharif is overwhelmed with several conflicting situations and pressures at the same time. PM Sharif is both heavy and juggling on the wire. Asif Zardari and Altaf Hussain are both demanding a softening up of the operation. The GHQ, to be certain, is in no mood to retreat. The PML-N’s political strategy hasn’t changed much: keep the GHQ’s cannons engaged in Karachi (away from Lahore); keep mega-projects going; avoid any direct showdown with the GHQ; ‘delay and derail’ the GHQ-led calendar of events.

The million dollar question is: when, and if, the accountability brigade will enter the land of five rivers.

PPP: Chief Secretary Sindh Siddique Memon is on a bail-before-arrest of Rs500,000 from the Sindh High Court (SHC). Inspector-General of Police (Sindh), Ghulam Haider Jamali, is under investigation by NAB (and so are Fida Hussain, AIG, Aleem Jaffery, DIG and Maqsood Memon, SSP). Chairman CM’s Inspection Team Abdus Subhan Memon is also on a bail-before-arrest.

Asif Zardari has four choices: de-empower the Rangers; resign from the assemblies; street agitation or fight it out in the courts. Well, de-empowering the Rangers could invite Governor’s Rule and the PPP is in no shape or form for any sustainable street protests. The PPP’s best bet seems to be making plenty of noise within the assemblies and fighting it out in the courts.

MQM: The only winner here is Altaf Hussain who has managed to stall the ‘minus-one’ formula. The resignation card has also worked out well in terms of media coverage (which has moved from a medial trial to the resignation rigmarole). The MQM’s political face is intact but its sector commander based enforcement mechanism has been shaken badly – not destroyed.

PTI: Imran Khan’s four-day excursion through Sindh has been a non-starter but the local government experiment is going well. There’s a severe governance vacuum and the PTI has an opportunity to fill it.

“Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.” – Thomas Edison

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com. Twitter: @saleemfarrukh
 
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How and why it happened.

The Rangers arrested Dr. Asim Hussain of the Sindh-ruling Pakistan Peoples Party on Aug. 26 on charges of terrorism. The provincial chief secretary is on pre-arrest bail. The National Accountability Bureau is investigating Sindh’s inspector-general of police on charges of corruption; the deputy inspector-general, additional inspector-general and senior superintendent of police are all being probed for their role in the purchase of CCTV cameras, bulletproof jackets, cars, and weapons. The chairman of the chief minister’s inspection team, facing allegations of illegally allotting state land, is also being investigated and is on bail.

The headquarters of the Pakistan Rangers (Sindh) has replaced Bilawal House as the province’s center of gravity. The Sindh Assembly, the Chief Minister’s Secretariat and the Sindh High Court remain now only notional centers of power and authority. The coup in Karachi has happened. And it has been in the making for almost two years.

It started on Sept. 5, 2013, when the Rangers were empowered to “lead a targeted operation with the support of police against criminals already identified by federal, military and civilian agencies in hundreds of lists for their alleged involvement in targeted killings, kidnappings-for-ransom, extortion and terrorism.” By November the following year, the operation had moved from being “targeted” to a whole lot more.

On March 11, Nine-Zero, headquarters of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement party, which has long been accused of involvement in terrorist activities, was raided. On May 16, Lt. Gen. Naveed Mukhtar, commander of V Corps, said the “fight is against terrorists, extortionists, target-killers, kidnappers and other criminals.” On June 15, the Rangers raided the Sindh Building Control Authority, marking a major expansion of the operation. The following day, the former president and PPP’s co-chairman reacted. Asif Ali Zardari’s outburst was meant to stop GHQ in its boots. It didn’t work, and Zardari left for Dubai. On Aug. 12, MQM’s lawmakers submitted their resignations in the national and provincial assemblies. These were also meant to stall GHQ’s role expansion; these, too, didn’t work.

The Army’s interest in Karachi appears to be showing results. In 2013, 2,507 murders took place in the city and 174 kidnappings-for-ransom. Since the start of this year, terrorist violence is down 40 percent from last year, suicide attacks down 55 percent, and bombings down 60 percent. Average monthly killings are down from 95 to 45; and annual kidnappings from 115 to 14. This has encouraged the Army to broaden their cleanup operation.

On Aug. 25, according to a press release from the military, the Army chief, Gen. Raheel Sharif, “approved an increase in the number of military courts in Karachi” and “directed to break [the] evil nexus [between] terrorism, criminal mafias, violence and corruption to ensure [a] peaceful and terror-free” Karachi. The next day, the Rangers picked up Dr. Hussain, signaling the shift of focus from terrorism to alleged corruption.

The PPP knows the trouble it’s in. On Aug. 31, Zardari blamed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and not the Army, for its latest woes. “The politics of revenge should immediately be stopped otherwise it will produce disastrous consequences,” he said. But the old narrative of political victimization, whether true or not, is finding few takers because the Sindh government has failed, despite being in power since 2008, to provide security, stability and services. The governance vacuum created by the PPP’s apparent apathy or inability could not defy the laws of nature. The void has sucked in the Rangers. Perhaps to the point of no return.

Saleem is co-host of Ho Kya Raha Hai on 92 News. From our Sept. 5-12, 2015, issue.
 

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Obviously the rating and the ranking of Pakistan Army is at all time high due to their directness towards enemies of Pakistan.

Meanwhile Nawaz Sharif is under pressure due to some political reasons which are irrelevant to a normal simple Pakistani.

PPP snatched billion of rupees since 2008 and now rangers and FIA are behind them so they are on the run.

MQM successfully showed themselve as political victim and played Muhajir Card pretty well but it can save Altaf not all of them.

I like Imran but sometimes or most of times he undermine peoples sentiments, so I dont think he is going to gain something.
 
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