Monday, 22 September 2008
Pakistan lies at the centre of American strategic calculations about South and Central Asia. All the United States' plans regarding Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the struggle against al-Qa'ida, involve Pakistan, which is why Saturday's blast in Islamabad is not only a human tragedy but a deeply troubling sign that the crisis in global security is further than ever from a resolution. That terrorists can cause such carnage in the middle of the capital of Pakistan not only makes a mockery of President Asif Zardari's claims to be getting tough on Islamic militants but raises long-term fears for the state's very survival. The fact is that terrorists have been detonating bombs with growing boldness in recent months.
About 30 people were killed earlier this month in Peshawar, while another 78 people perished in twin suicide bombings in August in the weapons factory in the town of Wah. It is only because the victims did not include Westerners and diplomats that these terrible attacks attracted such little international attention.
The factors behind Pakistan's apparent descent into a "failed state" are many. One has been the government's own ambivalence in recent years towards radical Islam at home and in neighbouring Afghanistan. Another is the constant American pressure on Islamabad to take a tougher line on the militants operating in the so-called Tribal Areas on the Afghan border. Despairing of real action on Pakistan's part, especially after the departure of their close ally Pervez Musharraf as president, the Americans have taken to launching unilateral attacks on those they believe are behind attacks on American and Nato forces in Afghanistan. However, an unintended consequence of this unilateral policy has been an upsurge in anti-Americanism in Pakistan itself, which has aided the militants in their drive to take their crusade against the US to the heart of the country.
The future of the country looks bleak. The economy is in a poor state, its failings made manifest in food riots, high unemployment and falling currency reserves. The new President looks weak, and the army disorientated. The intelligence services have been penetrated by Islamic militants. Sectarian violence is worsening, opening up the prospect of a country virtually at war with itself. The border with an even more chaotic neighbour, Afghanistan, remains porous.
The President's late wife, Benazir Bhutto, herself the victim of Pakistan's increasingly violent political culture, warned that the growing ills afflicting her country could not be addressed without an economic turnaround. With that in mind, we must hope that the Friends of Pakistan, the international forum that Mr Zardari has established, and to which Gordon Brown has lent full support, will achieve something at its first donors' conference in New York this Friday.
It may be too much to expect that a substantial injection of foreign cash into the economy can calm the waters of this deeply troubled country, but in the absence of any other solutions, it remains the only hope.
