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Pakistan’s trade deficit falls by 9.35 per cent in 11 months

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Pakistan’s trade deficit falls by 9.35 per cent in 11 months

Saturday, June 12, 2010
By Israr Khan

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s trade deficit fell by 9.35 per cent to $13.88 billion during the last 11 months (July-May) of 2009/10 fiscal against $15.32 billion during the corresponding period last year, said the official data released on Friday.

During this period, the country‘s exports were around $17.6 billion compared with $16.6 billion last year, while imports were at $31.48 billion — almost stagnant at the same level as of last year, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said.

During these 11 months of the outgoing fiscal, exports grew by 8.9 per cent, while imports remained unchanged compared to the same period last year.

Analysts say that the rupeeís depreciation against the dollar and slow economic growth were the key reasons behind the stagnant imports.

During May, the trade deficit increased by 46.5 per cent to $1.61 billion against $1.1 billion recorded during the corresponding period last year.

During the month under review, the country exported products worth $1.75 billion, showing an increase of 19.9 per cent and imported products worth $3.36 billion against $2.56 billion in May 2009, depicting a rise of 31.31 per cent, the bureau said.

During May, exports registered an increase of one per cent and imports 11.53 per cent against April, when exports stood at $1.737 billion and imports were at $3.015 billion.

“We are witnessing revival of exports and also surging of imports,” said renowned economist and dean of NUST business school, Dr. Ashfaque Hasan Khan.

“However, an increase in exports is due to price effect as the raw cotton and yarn prices have increased in the international market and so we are getting good price, while the volume of growth is negligible. In exports the price effect is far greater than the volume effect.”

“There is also a base effect involving in it as now statisticians are comparing exports with the low base, which ultimately is showing high growth in exports,” he said.

Due to increase in oil prices, the imports are also increasing, Khan said.

“As we have circular debt issue in our country, so our oil refineries are producing less petroleum products and, therefore, we had to import more oil

“As soon as the world economy is getting firmed up, the prices of crude oil would also go up. Therefore, we should have to continue tight fiscal and monetary policies,” Khan added.


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