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asia.nikkei.com
Pakistan's outgoing government is taking criticism for allegedly using the recent national census to delay elections for its own benefit, while a curious sudden reduction of the population in the southwestern province of Balochistan has sparked protests.
The Council of Common Interest (CCI), an interprovincial government body chaired by the prime minister, approved the new digital census on Monday. According to the results, the nation's population stands at 241 million, excluding Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, up from the previous count of 208 million in 2017.
The population recorded through the census in each province determines the allocation of financial resources, federal jobs and parliament seats. Its approval means the next general election must be conducted based on the results. So although the National Assembly and cabinet were dissolved for elections on Wednesday, Pakistan now must carry out a monthslong process of redrawing constituencies and compiling new voter rolls that is expected to push the polls well beyond the November deadline, likely to March next year.
Multiple political leaders interviewed on background noted that the census concluded in May and that the government could have approved it earlier. They claimed the government intentionally waited until the end of the assembly's term to sign off on the results.
An official working with the federal government told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity that the delay was a strategy to buy more time for an economic recovery. Amid high inflation, shrinking foreign reserves forced Pakistan to forge a $3 billion standby arrangement with the International Monetary Fund earlier this year.
"Currently, the economy is in really bad shape and the [outgoing] government believed that if they contested elections now, they would lose," the official said.
The country's first digital census had already been dogged by other doubts. Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, was at the center of a controversy in April, when the census process was 90% complete. Preliminary figures suggested that Karachi's population had supposedly dropped by 15%, compared with 2017. The final results eased those concerns, showing the city's population had increased by 4 million.
Now the focus is Balochistan, where political leaders are calling the results unfair, or even tampered with.
On May 12, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the body responsible for conducting the census, announced on its official social media channels that the population of Balochistan had reached 20.6 million. The province looked to have the biggest population increase, possibly due to undercounting in 2017. However, the final results released by the PBS show the province with 14.89 million people.
The abrupt "disappearance" of 7 million citizens has prompted an outcry. Had Balochistan's population been 21 million, the province would have received at least seven more seats in Pakistan's lower house. This would have reduced the seats from Punjab province, the stronghold of outgoing Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's party.
Abdul Jabbar Nasir, an election analyst based in Karachi, believes the census results were managed to ensure that there is no change in the proportion of National Assembly seat distribution among the provinces. "In Balochistan and Sindh, the population was reduced and final results are based on assumed average percentage change calculations rather than census groundwork," he said.
A spokesperson for the PBS did not respond to questions about the allegation that Balochistan's population was deliberately undercounted.
In Balochistan, local politicians have rejected the census and announced protests. The provincial assembly passed a resolution condemning the reduction in the population figures.
Saadullah Dehwar, a provincial leader of the National Party, a Baloch ethnic-nationalist party, termed the census results a grave injustice. "We were actively taking part in the census process and on May 20 we were told by the government that the population of Balochistan has crossed 22 million," he told Nikkei. He said the reported 7 million drop was shocking.
The anonymous federal government official said that Balochistan representatives at the CCI did not speak up during the last meeting, however. "Now, it's a done deal, the population figures can't be changed even if there are protests," the official said.
Even so, the province is expected to push the matter.
The National Party "will start a protest campaign against the controversial census results of Balochistan," said Dehwar. "We will challenge the census results in a court of law and will carry out a full-fledged campaign against the injustices."
Pakistan census sparks accusations of manipulation
Election delay, Balochistan province's missing 7 million raise questions
asia.nikkei.com
Pakistan's outgoing government is taking criticism for allegedly using the recent national census to delay elections for its own benefit, while a curious sudden reduction of the population in the southwestern province of Balochistan has sparked protests.
The Council of Common Interest (CCI), an interprovincial government body chaired by the prime minister, approved the new digital census on Monday. According to the results, the nation's population stands at 241 million, excluding Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, up from the previous count of 208 million in 2017.
The population recorded through the census in each province determines the allocation of financial resources, federal jobs and parliament seats. Its approval means the next general election must be conducted based on the results. So although the National Assembly and cabinet were dissolved for elections on Wednesday, Pakistan now must carry out a monthslong process of redrawing constituencies and compiling new voter rolls that is expected to push the polls well beyond the November deadline, likely to March next year.
Multiple political leaders interviewed on background noted that the census concluded in May and that the government could have approved it earlier. They claimed the government intentionally waited until the end of the assembly's term to sign off on the results.
An official working with the federal government told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity that the delay was a strategy to buy more time for an economic recovery. Amid high inflation, shrinking foreign reserves forced Pakistan to forge a $3 billion standby arrangement with the International Monetary Fund earlier this year.
"Currently, the economy is in really bad shape and the [outgoing] government believed that if they contested elections now, they would lose," the official said.
The country's first digital census had already been dogged by other doubts. Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, was at the center of a controversy in April, when the census process was 90% complete. Preliminary figures suggested that Karachi's population had supposedly dropped by 15%, compared with 2017. The final results eased those concerns, showing the city's population had increased by 4 million.
Now the focus is Balochistan, where political leaders are calling the results unfair, or even tampered with.
On May 12, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the body responsible for conducting the census, announced on its official social media channels that the population of Balochistan had reached 20.6 million. The province looked to have the biggest population increase, possibly due to undercounting in 2017. However, the final results released by the PBS show the province with 14.89 million people.
The abrupt "disappearance" of 7 million citizens has prompted an outcry. Had Balochistan's population been 21 million, the province would have received at least seven more seats in Pakistan's lower house. This would have reduced the seats from Punjab province, the stronghold of outgoing Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's party.
Abdul Jabbar Nasir, an election analyst based in Karachi, believes the census results were managed to ensure that there is no change in the proportion of National Assembly seat distribution among the provinces. "In Balochistan and Sindh, the population was reduced and final results are based on assumed average percentage change calculations rather than census groundwork," he said.
A spokesperson for the PBS did not respond to questions about the allegation that Balochistan's population was deliberately undercounted.
In Balochistan, local politicians have rejected the census and announced protests. The provincial assembly passed a resolution condemning the reduction in the population figures.
Saadullah Dehwar, a provincial leader of the National Party, a Baloch ethnic-nationalist party, termed the census results a grave injustice. "We were actively taking part in the census process and on May 20 we were told by the government that the population of Balochistan has crossed 22 million," he told Nikkei. He said the reported 7 million drop was shocking.
The anonymous federal government official said that Balochistan representatives at the CCI did not speak up during the last meeting, however. "Now, it's a done deal, the population figures can't be changed even if there are protests," the official said.
Even so, the province is expected to push the matter.
The National Party "will start a protest campaign against the controversial census results of Balochistan," said Dehwar. "We will challenge the census results in a court of law and will carry out a full-fledged campaign against the injustices."
