Pakistan has been able to add only 6,463 megawatts of hydropower to its energy mix over the past 60 years, as against an untapped potential of 41,000 megawatts, including 15,000 megawatts from Northern Areas alone, according to experts. As a result, the national economy has had to pay a steep price for this neglect.
Ironically enough, after 60 years the hydel sector is still not being given the degree of primacy it ought to have received by now, because under the Vision 2025 programme, only 769 megawatts of hydropower is planned to be added to the national grid by the year 2010.
The "go-slow" has widened the gap between power supply and demand to around 5,000 megawatts, with the country's average annual power growth rate standing at about eight percent. This means experts said, that we need to develop an additional annual generation capacity of at least 2,000 megawatts. Meanwhile, most of the hydropower projects unveiled under the Vision 2025 programme are behind schedule, and confined only to pre-feasibility or feasibility stage.
One of the main causes of the crippling delay, as quoted in a Recorder Report, is that our technocrats have mixed up priorities of power generation from "big multi-purpose water reservoir dams" to the "run of the river" power generation.
The main purpose of the dams is irrigation, with power generation being only a by-product, while the latter category is meant purely for power generation. We have given priority to Kalabagh, Bhasha and Akhori dams, which became hostage to political wrangling, at the cost of non-controversial "run of the river" projects.
The technical distinction pointed out by the experts should serve as a useful parameter for the government in future. The "run of the river" projects are relatively easier to execute, and the power obtained from them is inexpensive. According to experts, the government should prioritise power projects, with shorter-duration schemes being taken up first.
They have said that Pattan, Thankot and Dasu projects should be given priority over Bhasha, for instance, because the latter's cost would be over 15 billion dollars, with the execution period extending to 10-12 years. A look at the country's power generation capacity will help us put things in perspective.
According to available data, the country's total installed capacity stands at 20,456 megawatts, while its dependable generation has been worked out at 18,000 megawatts. However, firm power supply stands at 16,000 megawatts in summer and only 13,000 megawatts in winter after taking into account power theft, line losses, reduced gas supply and lean spells of hydel generation.
The total peak demand has been calculated at 17,800 megawatts at the national level which was projected to go up to about 19,000 megawatts by the end of 2008. According to analysts, the necessary policy tools have been in place for many years to ensure sustainable addition to our power generation capacity, but "non-professional" considerations of some of those who have traditionally dominated the water and power sector have stymied timely execution of projects.
This has landed us in our current energy predicament. Secondly, a major cause of the crisis is lack (non-implementation?) of a foolproof mechanism at the national level for predicting with accuracy the quantum of energy the country will need at a given point in time, to be able to attain the growth rate set by the government. In fact, things seem to be as dismal in assessment of energy requirements as in the crop production assessment.
Thirdly, although spells of accountability have been witnessed from time to time to set things right, to our knowledge there has been no major effort to hold to account those who have been in charge of our water and power sector over decades. Although attempts have lately been mounted to set things right, but there are unfortunately no signs of success in hydropower or coal sector generation, which appears to have been a victim of callous neglect.
In order to loosen the stranglehold of the energy squeeze we are caught in, we can now at best launch only additional oil-based thermal projects - an option for which there may be many takers. As experts in our report have suggested, the government should re-prioritise the power projects, by taking up the short duration projects first.
In fact, there is an urgent need for the government to undertake fast-track execution of projects across the entire power spectrum, to tide over the deficit that is threatening to bring the economy to a grinding halt. We do not agree with the experts quoted in our report that Kalabagh dam, etc, should be given priority, because it has a vast diversionary and divisive potential.
There is even a cynical perception that Kalabagh has at times been used by those at the helm for its divisive potential, to put the hydel option on the backburner, in preference to the easily implementable (and lucrative) thermal option. We would strongly advise against using this red herring, yet again. Secondly, fast-tract implementation of projects across the power spectrum needs to be launched immediately, under high-level political oversight.
Thirdly, the in-built system of accountability and supervision too should be activated to see to it that there is no foot-dragging any more. We believe that only by adopting a sincere and holistic approach to the issue can we rid the economy of the millstone of devious delays.
