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Obama’s “No Growth, No Jobs, No Recovery” Economy Gives Up The Ghost

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Obama’s “No Growth, No Jobs, No Recovery” Economy Gives Up The Ghost

By Mike Whitney

April 30, 2015 "Information Clearing House" - "CP" - The world’s biggest economy ground to a standstill in the first quarter of 2015 wracked by massive job losses in the oil sector, falling personal consumption, weak exports and droopy fixed investment. Real gross domestic product (GDP), the value of the production of goods and services in the US, increased at an abysmal annual rate of just 0.2 percent in Q1 ’15 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis demonstrating conclusively that 6 years of zero rates and Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP)– which have enriched stock speculators, inflated the largest asset-price bubble in history, and exacerbated inequality to levels not seen since the Gilded Age– have done nothing to improve the real economy, boost demand or reduce unemployment. As the BEA data illustrates, the US economy is basically DOA, a victim of criminal congressional negligence and Central Bank chicanery.

From the BEA release: “The deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter reflected a deceleration in PCE, downturns in exports, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and upturns in private inventory investment and in federal government spending.”

Translation: The economy is in the shitter. Consumers aren’t spending because the crap-*** jobs they landed after the crisis pay half as much as the jobs they lost when Wall Street blew up the financial system. Personal savings are up and spending is down because households face an uncertain future where pensions are being trimmed and Social Security is under attack. Also, spending is impacted by the historic low (employment) participation rate which indicates that joblessness is much higher than the government’s phony numbers suggest. When workers are unemployed they don’t spend, activity drops, and the economy tanks. It’s that simple. Today’s data just confirms what most people already know, that the economy stinks and that they’re being ripped off by a voracious oligarchy that’s stacked the deck in their favor.

The US economy is stuck in the mud because our bought-and-paid-for congress has relinquished all authority and handed over the management of the economy to the industry-controlled Federal Reserve. Whereas our current budget deficits are in the range of 2 percent per annum, the government should be spending a lot more to compensate for the slowdown in private sector spending and investment. In the past, the congress and president would initiate sensible Keynesian fiscal stimulus programs to keep the economy sputtering along while households repaired their balance sheets or businesses struggled with weak demand. Those tried-and-true remedies have been jettisoned for the new monetarist orthodoxy that requires that all the nation’s wealth be filtered through the Wall Street casino so that the pampered thieves who destroyed the country with their mortgage-securities-Ponzi-scam be further rewarded for their insatiable greed.

Manufacturing, retail sales, MBA purchase applications, business investment etc, are all in the toilet. There’s a very good chance the economy is already in recession which will undoubtedly send stocks even higher since every proclamation of bad news generates a buying frenzy by clever speculators who anticipate that the Fed will continue to extend the zero rates and easy money to infinity.

It’s worth noting that the economy had been hanging on by the skin of its teeth mainly do to strong activity in the oil patch where credit expansion, intensive corporate investment, and high-paying jobs (which supported 4 additional jobs in the local economy!) contributed more than $200 billion per year to GDP. Now domestic oil production is in deep distress. Layoffs recently surpassed the 100,000 milestone (See: Oil Layoffs Hit 100,000 and Counting, Wall Street Journal) and borrowing has dried up. Economist Warren Mosler explains the impact the cutbacks in domestic oil have had on GDP in this video from RT that I have transcribed:

“The price drop in oil has turned out to be the unambiguous negative that we had talked about before….where income saved by the consumer, is lost by another consumer. For every dollar not spend by one consumer, another doesn’t get it. ..so you’re just left with the collapse in capital expenditures. (business investment) It turns out, there was about $150 borrowed in the sector last year, driving what modest growth we had last year. Since that disappeared, all the numbers have been going straight down. Unless something steps up to the plate to replace the lost borrowing-to-spend from chasing $100 oil, I see no hope whatsoever.” (Warren Mosler Interview, RT)

Economic recovery requires credit expansion, business investment and jobs. All three of these were severely impacted by the Obama’s goofy plan to push down oil prices in order to destroy the Russian economy. Here’s a brief summary:

“John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, allegedly struck a deal with King Abdullah in September under which the Saudis would sell crude at below the prevailing market price. That would help explain why the price has been falling at a time when, given the turmoil in Iraq and Syria caused by Islamic State, it would normally have been rising.” (Stakes are high as US plays the oil card against Iran and Russia, Larry Eliot, Guardian)

As indicated by today’s ghastly GDP data, Obama not only shot himself in the foot, he might have blown off his whole leg. Aside from the colossal growth in private inventories–which will be a drag on future growth–todays report was nothing short of a disaster.

 Obama’s “No Growth, No Jobs, No Recovery” Economy Gives Up The
Ghost    :   Information Clearing House - ICH


 
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DPCCPrivateSectorPayroll040315.png


Yearly employment figures don't agree with the article.

2015 Employment

  • January - First estimate was 257,000 jobs, later revised to 201,000.
  • February - A strong 295,000 jobs were added, later revised down to 264,000.
2014 Employment Reports
  • January - First estimate was 113,000 jobs, later revised to 144,000. The Dow rose 165 points.
  • February - Winter storms limited job creation to 175,000, later revised to 222,000.
  • March - A surprising 192,000 jobs were added, later revised to 225,000.
  • April - The initial report said 288,000 jobs were created, later revised to 282,000, then 304,000.
  • May - A solid 229,000 jobs were added, mostly in health care, hotels/restaurants and transportation. IT lost jobs. The initial report said 217,000 jobs were added.
  • June - Another 267,000 jobs were added, revised down from the second estimate of 298,000 jobs, which was revised up from the initial 288,000 estimate. Gains were in retail, healthcare, and hotels/restaurants. Government and IT added jobs.
  • July - Only 212,000 jobs were added, revised up from the initial estimate of 202,000. This was lower than expectations but still a solid gain. Increases were in healthcare, retail and hotels/restaurants..
  • August - The original estimate of 142,000 jobs was revised up to 180,000 positions. Healthcare and construction added the most jobs, while retail, auto manufacturing and IT lost jobs. Retail cut jobs which was not a good sign heading into the fall shopping season.
  • September - A healthy 256,000 jobs were added, revised up from the original forecast of 248,000 jobs. Retailers added 35,300 positions, gearing up for the back-to-school/Halloween/Black Friday shopping season. Hotels, restaurants and healthcare were also large job contributors.
  • October - A robust 243,000 jobs were added, revised up from the original estimate of 214,000 jobs. The growth came from retailers, who added workers for the holiday shopping season. Other growth areas were restaurants, bars and hotels and healthcare. Only IT reduced the number of workers, losing 5,000 jobs
  • November - An unbelievable 425,000 jobs were added, even better than the 325,000 jobs in the first revision, and the 321,000 original job estimate. This was the biggest gain in nearly three years. The gains were thanks to retailers that added jobs for the Halloween and the Black Friday shopping seasons. Other strong areas were healthcare and restaurants/bars/hotels, but every sector added positions, including Tech, which lost jobs in October.
  • December - A whopping 329,000 jobs were added, up from the 252,000 originally reported.
2013
  • MONTH JOBS CREATED (Final) JOBS CREATED (Original) COMMENTS
  • Jan 197,000 157,000
  • Feb 280,000 236,000 Growth due to construction and retail trade.
  • Mar 141,000 88,000 Disappointing jobs report blamed on weather and retail layoffs.
  • Apr 203,000 165,000 The strong report sent the Dow above 15,000.
  • May 199,000 175,000 Dow rose 200 points. Housing added jobs.
  • Jun 201,000 195,000
  • Jul 149,000 162,000 Most growth in low-paying retail and restaurants.
  • Aug 202,000 169,000 Job gains were in low-paying retail and restaurant sectors.
  • Sep 164,000 143,000 Investors cheered because the Fed would keep monetary policy loose.
  • Oct 237,000 204,000 The government shutdown delayed the survey allowing more businesses to report.
  • Nov 274,000 203,000 Across-the-board job growth.
  • Dec 84,000 71,000 Job losses were across the board, mainly from poor holiday sales.
2012
  • MONTH JOBS ADDED (Final) JOBS ADDED (Original) COMMENTS
  • Jan 360,000 243,000 Job growth was mainly in professional and business services, hospitality, and manufacturing
  • Feb 226,000 227,000 Business growth made everyone think the economy was finally healed.
  • Mar 243,000 120,000 Poor growth across the board, and retail shed jobs.
  • Apr 96,000 115,000 Two sectors weren't doing well -- construction and government. Housing was hampered by foreclosures, and government was cutting budgets.
  • May 110,000 65,000 Seasonal weakness sent the Dow down 275 points.
  • Jun 88,000 80,000 The Dow dropped 180 points on the poor jobs report.
  • Jul 160,000 163,000 The Dow gained 217 points on the strong report.
  • Aug 150,000 96,000
  • Sep 161,000 114,000 Former GE CEO Jack Welch was suspicious that so many jobs were added right before the Presidential election. It's explained here.
  • Oct 225,000 171,000 The strong jobs report came out a week before the election. Data was collected before Superstorm Sandy hit.
  • Nov 203,000 146,000 The storm devastated New York, but didn't affect national jobs numbers.
  • Dec 214,000 155,000 Uncertainty over the fiscal cliff forced businesses hire less.
2011
  • MONTH JOBS ADDED (Revised) JOBS ADDED (Original) COMMENTS
  • Jan 70,000 36,000 The economy had 984,000 more jobs than the year before.
  • Feb 168,000 192,000 Manufacturing jobs were up 189,000 year-over-year.
  • Mar 212,000 216,000
  • Apr 322,000 244,000
  • May 102,000 54,000 The poor jobs report sent the Dow and dollar down, and gold up.
  • Jun 217,000 18,000 The dismal jobs report panicked investors.
  • Jul 106,000 117,000 The Dow dropped 400 points despite job gains.
  • Aug 122,000 0 Astonishingly, absolutely no jobs were created, giving urgency to Obama's jobs speech the following week.
  • Sep 221,000 103,000 The economy added 2 million since the low point in February 2010, but was still down 6.7 million jobs since the high in January 2008.
  • Oct 183,000 80,000
  • Nov 164,000 120,000 Strong retail sales boosted job growth.
  • Dec 196,000 200,000 The economy added 1.6 million jobs in 2011
2010
  • MONTH JOBS ADDED (Revised) JOBS ADDED (Original) COMMENTS
  • Jan 18,000 N.A. 52,000 temporary jobs were added, of which 9,000 were for theCensus.There were 4 million fewer jobs than the year before.
  • Feb -50,000 N.A. The economy had 3.2 million fewer jobs than February 2009. The Census added 15,000 temporary jobs, boosting the 48,000 temp jobs made available.
  • Mar 156,000 N.A. There were 2.3 million fewer jobs, and 633,000 fewer manufacturing jobs, than a year earlier.
  • Apr 251,000 290,000 The Census added 63,000 temp jobs, and manufacturing added 44,000 jobs. But there's still 1.3 million fewer jobs than the year before.
  • May 516,000 431,000 The Census added 411,000 temp jobs.
  • Jun -122,000 -125,000 The Census laid off 225,000 temp workers.
  • Jul -61,000 -121,000 The Census laid off 143,000, but business hiring was up by 71,000 jobs.
  • Aug -42,000 -31,000 There were 130.3 million jobs, a gain of 229,000 jobs in the past year and the first y-o-y job GAIN in 26 months.
  • Sep -57,000 -91,000 There were 130.2 million jobs, 344,000 more than the year earlier.
  • Oct -57,000 150,000 The economy had 829,000 more jobs than the year before.
  • Nov 137,000 39,000 There were 842,000 more jobs than the year before.
  • Dec 71,000 103,000 Businesses added 117,000 jobs, but government laid off 10,000.
Now what was that about "no jobs?"
 
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