ISLAMABAD - The race has begun for the coveted slot of director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) as Pakistan's civilian and military leadership has decided against retaining ISI chief Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha. Especially in the aftermath of the "Memogate" scandal, he has fallen out of favor not only with President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani but also with Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani.
Memogate involved Pakistani-American businessman Mansoor Ijaz claiming that the Pakistan government had sought the Barack Obama administration's help to stave off a military coup following al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's May 2, 2011, killed in a covert US commando operation in the Pakistan town of Abbottabad. Pasha came under heavy criticism when Bin Laden was found living in Pakistan, hardly a kilometer from the Kakul Military Academy, which is located in a high-security garrison town on the edge of Islamabad.
The international community raised serious questions about the presence of Bin Laden in Abbottabad, refuting Pasha's stance that his agency was not aware of his being there.
Despite the glaring failure of the ISI to track down the world's most wanted fugitive terrorist, who had been living in Abbottabad for five years, Pasha somehow managed to hold onto his position, and then "unearthed" the Memogate scandal a few months later.
While investigating the memo without even seeking permission from the government, Pasha deemed it fit to travel to London, meet with Ijaz on October 22, 2011, and persuade Kiani to take up the issue with the Zardari-led Pakistan People's Party (PPP) government, maintaining that the memo had compromised the country's national security.
In the whole process, Pasha bypassed the prime minister and his office and behaved as if he were not answerable to the civilian setup.
The scandal eventually forced Pakistan's ambassador to Washington, Hissing Hawaii, to quit, besides prompting the Supreme Court to appoint a high-level judicial commission to investigate the alleged role of Zardari in it.
However, as the commission took up the case and asked Mansoor to come to Pakistan and prove his allegations, he first dilly-dallied and finally refused to appear, citing security reasons. Not only that, he accused Pasha of touring some Arab countries after the May 2 Abbottabad raid to discuss a military coup against the government.
The charge put Pasha in a tight corner since it was leveled by none other than his own source - Mansoor - as reported by a British daily, The Independent, on December 13, 2011. The incident deeply embarrassed the mighty military establishment besides causing serious tensions between the political and the military elite.
As things stand, it seems the Pakistani security establishment has lost interest in the Memogate case which is still being pursued by the commission.
Pasha's rise and fall
Pasha was appointed director general of the ISI in September 2008, replacing Lieutenant General Na deem Taj, who had been appointed by General Pervez Musher. Taj replaced Kiani, who had served as spy chief under Musher from October 2004 to October 2007.
Pasha was born on March 18, 1952, and was due to reach the age of superannuation on March 18, 2010, but received two extensions until this March 18. He was recently named as one of the 100 most influential people by Time Magazine.
He is unlikely to get another extension despite claims by his close associates that the PPP government will do this to ease tensions with the security establishment.
Indeed, well-informed government circles say Pasha stands "zero chance" of staying in the job as the suspicion is he masterminded "Memogate" to pressurize the government into giving him another one-year term. These circles reminded that Gilani said on January 29, "All these reports [on an extension] are nothing but misinformation."
As the country's military and political elite has decided to get rid of Pasha and bring in a new face to head the ISI, front runners among those tipped to take over include eight lieutenant generals and two major generals. Those who have already been short-listed include Corps Commander Karachi, Lieutenant General Achiever Islam (who is due to retire on October 1, 2014), the Adjutant General at general headquarters Lieutenant General Jawed Ribald (due to retire on April 15, 2015).
Army chief Kiani is expected to short list three names before the March 18 retirement of Pasha, which would be sent to Gilani who will choose one of them in consultation with Zardari. Well-informed khaki circles say Islam has bright chances, keeping in view his experience in the ISI - as the head of the spy agency's internal wing that deals with counter-intelligence and domestic issues - before his promotion to the rank of a three-star general and his subsequent appointment as commander Karachi last year.
Coming from a military family of Punjab province, Islam enjoys rapport with Kiani.
It is believed that Adjutant General Lieutenant General Jawed Ribald has an equal chance of being selected, mainly because he served as Director General Military Operations before becoming adjutant general. Pasha was in that position before his elevation to the ISI.
But there are also those in establishment circles who do not rule out the possibility of Kiani elevating the incumbent director general of Military Intelligence, Major General Nashua Kiani, as the next ISI director general by promoting him to the rank of lieutenant general to make him eligible for the top slot.
However, the deputy director general of the ISI, Major General Sahibzada Isfandiyar Ali Khan Pataudi, could well be the dark horse due to his personal friendship with Kiani. Coming from the famous Pataudi family of the sub-continent (which made its mark in the fields of show biz and cricket, both in India and Pakistan), Isfandiyar is an accomplished polo player and chairman of the Pakistan Polo Association.
His aides say his closeness with Kiani, coupled with his liberal outlook and distinguished family background, could work to his advantage. An armored corps officer, he first needs to get a promotion to become eligible.
The appointment of a new ISI chief has assumed greater significance against the backdrop of civil-military tensions. While in theory the premier intelligence agency falls under the jurisdiction of the prime minister - being the chief executive he could appoint a civilian to head the agency - in practice the ISI falls within the army's chain of command.
But government sources say although the prime minister has the constitutional authority to appoint the ISI chief, he would leave it to Kiani.
Past attempts by former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and prime minister Nawaz Sharif to appoint lieutenant generals closer to their governments as spy masters backfired.
Bhutto appointed Lieutenant General (retired) Shamsur Rahman Kallu (May 1989-August 1990) while Nawaz Sharif appointed Lieutenant General Ziauddin Butt (October 1998-October 1999) as ISI chiefs. However, both the moves led to strained ties between the civilian government and the security establishment.
While Kallu died of a heart attack without completing his term, Butt was arrested by Musharraf's administration when he toppled the Sharif government in October 1999.
Pasha's tenure will be remembered for all the wrong reasons. It was hardly a few weeks after his appointment that a group of 11 terrorists belonging to the Lashkar-e-Toiba and allegedly trained by the ISI traveled by sea all the way from Karachi to Mumbai to carry out the 26/11 attacks in 2008, killing 172 people.
Some other key terror attacks that were carried out during his tenure and which are described as intelligence failures included the March 3, 2009, attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, the May 27, 2009, suicide attack on the provincial headquarters of the ISI in Lahore, the October 11, 2009, terrorist attack on the general headquarters of army, the December 4, 2009, terrorist attack at the Parade Lane mosque in the garrison town of Rawalpindi, the killing of Bin Laden and the fidayeen (suicide) attack targeting the Mehran Naval base in Karachi three weeks later.
The ISI was also accused of aiding the infamous Haqqani militant network to carry out the September 13, 2011, attack on the US Embassy in Kabul. During Pasha's tenure, the ISI was also charged with involvement in large-scale disappearances and subsequent extra-judicial killings of missing persons.
The agency further came under sharp criticism for its alleged involvement in the May 29, 2011, kidnapping and subsequent murder of Syed Saleem Shahzad. The slain Asia Times Online Pakistan bureau chief had informed Human Rights Watch in an e-mail that should he be killed, the ISI should be considered the principal suspect.
Another major charge against Pasha was his involvement in internal politics with a view to weakening the elected government.
While making public US diplomatic cables, WikiLeaks quoted Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik in December 2010 as telling the then-US ambassador to Islamabad, Anne Patterson, that it was not Kiani but the ISI chief who was hatching conspiracies against Zardari.
The cables revealed that Malik had sought an urgent appointment with Patterson in November 2009 and said that Pasha was hatching plots to dislodge Zardari, adding that the president needed political security. Patterson, however, was certain that the ISI chief could not do it alone.
The ISI is Pakistan's premier intelligence agency and responsible for providing national security intelligence assessments to the government.
However, the ISI's involvement in national politics has weakened mainstream political parties, given a boost to horse-trading and arrested the growth of a political culture.
Demands by parliamentarians that the charter of the ISI be amended to exclude unrelated matters like domestic politics have been the result, as politicians seek ways to allow it to concentrate on its actual job of combating external security threats.
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan
Memogate involved Pakistani-American businessman Mansoor Ijaz claiming that the Pakistan government had sought the Barack Obama administration's help to stave off a military coup following al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's May 2, 2011, killed in a covert US commando operation in the Pakistan town of Abbottabad. Pasha came under heavy criticism when Bin Laden was found living in Pakistan, hardly a kilometer from the Kakul Military Academy, which is located in a high-security garrison town on the edge of Islamabad.
The international community raised serious questions about the presence of Bin Laden in Abbottabad, refuting Pasha's stance that his agency was not aware of his being there.
Despite the glaring failure of the ISI to track down the world's most wanted fugitive terrorist, who had been living in Abbottabad for five years, Pasha somehow managed to hold onto his position, and then "unearthed" the Memogate scandal a few months later.
While investigating the memo without even seeking permission from the government, Pasha deemed it fit to travel to London, meet with Ijaz on October 22, 2011, and persuade Kiani to take up the issue with the Zardari-led Pakistan People's Party (PPP) government, maintaining that the memo had compromised the country's national security.
In the whole process, Pasha bypassed the prime minister and his office and behaved as if he were not answerable to the civilian setup.
The scandal eventually forced Pakistan's ambassador to Washington, Hissing Hawaii, to quit, besides prompting the Supreme Court to appoint a high-level judicial commission to investigate the alleged role of Zardari in it.
However, as the commission took up the case and asked Mansoor to come to Pakistan and prove his allegations, he first dilly-dallied and finally refused to appear, citing security reasons. Not only that, he accused Pasha of touring some Arab countries after the May 2 Abbottabad raid to discuss a military coup against the government.
The charge put Pasha in a tight corner since it was leveled by none other than his own source - Mansoor - as reported by a British daily, The Independent, on December 13, 2011. The incident deeply embarrassed the mighty military establishment besides causing serious tensions between the political and the military elite.
As things stand, it seems the Pakistani security establishment has lost interest in the Memogate case which is still being pursued by the commission.
Pasha's rise and fall
Pasha was appointed director general of the ISI in September 2008, replacing Lieutenant General Na deem Taj, who had been appointed by General Pervez Musher. Taj replaced Kiani, who had served as spy chief under Musher from October 2004 to October 2007.
Pasha was born on March 18, 1952, and was due to reach the age of superannuation on March 18, 2010, but received two extensions until this March 18. He was recently named as one of the 100 most influential people by Time Magazine.
He is unlikely to get another extension despite claims by his close associates that the PPP government will do this to ease tensions with the security establishment.
Indeed, well-informed government circles say Pasha stands "zero chance" of staying in the job as the suspicion is he masterminded "Memogate" to pressurize the government into giving him another one-year term. These circles reminded that Gilani said on January 29, "All these reports [on an extension] are nothing but misinformation."
As the country's military and political elite has decided to get rid of Pasha and bring in a new face to head the ISI, front runners among those tipped to take over include eight lieutenant generals and two major generals. Those who have already been short-listed include Corps Commander Karachi, Lieutenant General Achiever Islam (who is due to retire on October 1, 2014), the Adjutant General at general headquarters Lieutenant General Jawed Ribald (due to retire on April 15, 2015).
Army chief Kiani is expected to short list three names before the March 18 retirement of Pasha, which would be sent to Gilani who will choose one of them in consultation with Zardari. Well-informed khaki circles say Islam has bright chances, keeping in view his experience in the ISI - as the head of the spy agency's internal wing that deals with counter-intelligence and domestic issues - before his promotion to the rank of a three-star general and his subsequent appointment as commander Karachi last year.
Coming from a military family of Punjab province, Islam enjoys rapport with Kiani.
It is believed that Adjutant General Lieutenant General Jawed Ribald has an equal chance of being selected, mainly because he served as Director General Military Operations before becoming adjutant general. Pasha was in that position before his elevation to the ISI.
But there are also those in establishment circles who do not rule out the possibility of Kiani elevating the incumbent director general of Military Intelligence, Major General Nashua Kiani, as the next ISI director general by promoting him to the rank of lieutenant general to make him eligible for the top slot.
However, the deputy director general of the ISI, Major General Sahibzada Isfandiyar Ali Khan Pataudi, could well be the dark horse due to his personal friendship with Kiani. Coming from the famous Pataudi family of the sub-continent (which made its mark in the fields of show biz and cricket, both in India and Pakistan), Isfandiyar is an accomplished polo player and chairman of the Pakistan Polo Association.
His aides say his closeness with Kiani, coupled with his liberal outlook and distinguished family background, could work to his advantage. An armored corps officer, he first needs to get a promotion to become eligible.
The appointment of a new ISI chief has assumed greater significance against the backdrop of civil-military tensions. While in theory the premier intelligence agency falls under the jurisdiction of the prime minister - being the chief executive he could appoint a civilian to head the agency - in practice the ISI falls within the army's chain of command.
But government sources say although the prime minister has the constitutional authority to appoint the ISI chief, he would leave it to Kiani.
Past attempts by former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and prime minister Nawaz Sharif to appoint lieutenant generals closer to their governments as spy masters backfired.
Bhutto appointed Lieutenant General (retired) Shamsur Rahman Kallu (May 1989-August 1990) while Nawaz Sharif appointed Lieutenant General Ziauddin Butt (October 1998-October 1999) as ISI chiefs. However, both the moves led to strained ties between the civilian government and the security establishment.
While Kallu died of a heart attack without completing his term, Butt was arrested by Musharraf's administration when he toppled the Sharif government in October 1999.
Pasha's tenure will be remembered for all the wrong reasons. It was hardly a few weeks after his appointment that a group of 11 terrorists belonging to the Lashkar-e-Toiba and allegedly trained by the ISI traveled by sea all the way from Karachi to Mumbai to carry out the 26/11 attacks in 2008, killing 172 people.
Some other key terror attacks that were carried out during his tenure and which are described as intelligence failures included the March 3, 2009, attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, the May 27, 2009, suicide attack on the provincial headquarters of the ISI in Lahore, the October 11, 2009, terrorist attack on the general headquarters of army, the December 4, 2009, terrorist attack at the Parade Lane mosque in the garrison town of Rawalpindi, the killing of Bin Laden and the fidayeen (suicide) attack targeting the Mehran Naval base in Karachi three weeks later.
The ISI was also accused of aiding the infamous Haqqani militant network to carry out the September 13, 2011, attack on the US Embassy in Kabul. During Pasha's tenure, the ISI was also charged with involvement in large-scale disappearances and subsequent extra-judicial killings of missing persons.
The agency further came under sharp criticism for its alleged involvement in the May 29, 2011, kidnapping and subsequent murder of Syed Saleem Shahzad. The slain Asia Times Online Pakistan bureau chief had informed Human Rights Watch in an e-mail that should he be killed, the ISI should be considered the principal suspect.
Another major charge against Pasha was his involvement in internal politics with a view to weakening the elected government.
While making public US diplomatic cables, WikiLeaks quoted Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik in December 2010 as telling the then-US ambassador to Islamabad, Anne Patterson, that it was not Kiani but the ISI chief who was hatching conspiracies against Zardari.
The cables revealed that Malik had sought an urgent appointment with Patterson in November 2009 and said that Pasha was hatching plots to dislodge Zardari, adding that the president needed political security. Patterson, however, was certain that the ISI chief could not do it alone.
The ISI is Pakistan's premier intelligence agency and responsible for providing national security intelligence assessments to the government.
However, the ISI's involvement in national politics has weakened mainstream political parties, given a boost to horse-trading and arrested the growth of a political culture.
Demands by parliamentarians that the charter of the ISI be amended to exclude unrelated matters like domestic politics have been the result, as politicians seek ways to allow it to concentrate on its actual job of combating external security threats.
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan
