Bill Longley
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Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad | KASHMIR: THE EMERGING BATTLEGROUND FOR CENTRAL ASIA
As the drawdown date for the US and NATO forces is coming closer, moves and counter-moves have already begun by powers who want to derive benefits from post US- led occupation of Afghanistan to link-up and create influence in mineral-rich Central Asia.
On 5 May 2012, Present Union Minister for Finance and then Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram, talking to Indian chief ministers at their National Counter Terrorism Strategy Conference, commented:
that given Indias 7516 km coastline, 15,106 km of international borders with seven countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, China, Bangladesh and Myanmar) and a number of international gateways, state Anti-Terrorist Forces would have to necessarily work with a number of agencies of the Central Government, especially when there are threats in the domain of sea, air and space..
On another instance, in his speech on Indias National Security Challenges and Priorities at K Subrahmanyam Memorial Lecture, on 6 Feb 2013, he repeated:
There are four physical domains in our world land, sea, air and space. We have a land border of a length of about 15,000 km with Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, China, Bangladesh and Myanmar, and even a small length of 106 km with Afghanistan[ii]
The two statements are quite controversial and coming from a senior member of the Indian government, cannot be ignored as a mistake, given that the two have a year in between. The on-ground and internationally accepted fact is that India does not have any border with Afghanistan unless it takes control of the entire Gilgit-Baltistan Agency from Pakistan, which borders with a small area of Afghanistan known as the Wakhan Corridor between Tajikistan and Pakistan.
The Gilgit and Baltistan became part of Pakistan in 1948 after its inhabitants defeated the Dogra Army to liberate their land and asked the government of Pakistan to annex them in the Pakistani state.
Chidambarams statements, linked with the rising tensions between India and Pakistan on the Line of Control (LoC) and the developing situation in Indian occupied Kashmir (IOK) clearly map out Indias intentions and its goal of acquiring land link with Afghanistan.
Looking back at the chronology of recent developments on the LoC, which separates Azad Kashmir and Indian Occupied Kashmir, we see sudden resurgence of hostilities.
On 6th Jan 2013, a Pakistan Army position in Bagh Sector was attacked by hostile Indian forces in which one soldier was martyred and another was wounded. The attack was repelled and the retreating Indian soldiers left their weapons [iii].
On 8th Jan 2013, the BBC reported That Indian commandos had attacked a Pakistani position in Poonch Sector killing a Pakistani soldier. The Indian Army claimed that Pakistani forces had attacked its position, killing two of its soldiers and mutilating their bodies [iv]. The Indian Army also threatened to seek revenge[v].
The Pakistan Army called for an investigation by UN observers [vi], but any India opposed the idea.
More recently, a 22-year-old Pakistani soldier who mistakenly crossed the LoC at the Nowshera Sector was killed in cold blood by the Indian army after questioning him [vii].
Simultaneously, Afzal Guru a Kashmiri suspect in the attack on Indian parliament building in 2002 was hanged, setting aside all principals of justice and then buried without the presence of his kith and kin[viii]. After his execution, protests broke out in IoK, The highhandedness shown by the Indian Army and establishment in quelling the protests points out that India is trying to create a controlled unrest in the occupied region. Nearly a dozen Kashmiries, including young children, have been killed by Indian security forces on the pretext of controlling protests.
India not only blames Pakistan for the armed tension on the LoC, but also accuses it of facilitating infiltration of freedom fighters into IoK.
A curious development in this situation is that Indian authorities have distributed pamphlets in occupied Kashmir on precautionary measures to be taken in case of a nuclear war [ix]. The authorities say the distribution of these pamphlets is a routine civil defense exercise.
Looking back at history and past and present strategic though pattern of the two neighbors we know that Kashmir would be the last place for a nuke attack if the two countries do fall into nuclear exchange.
Keeping the above points in mind, especially the Indian ministers claims of a border with Afghanistan, the countrys ambitions are quite clear. The country would like to occupy Gilgit Agency from Pakistan and pave the way for an unhindered road link to Afghanistan and central Asia. The road link to Wakhan Corridor is also desirable for India as the region will be under the control of the Northern Alliance, which is hostile to both Pashtuns and Pakistan, thus will be a secure trade alley for India.
However, the biggest hurdle in this plan is the loyalty and commitment of Gilgit-Baltistans people to Pakistan. Thus, India plans to maintain a level of unrest in Kashmir and using it as a ruse to extend the fighting to Gilgit. But India also knows that Pakistan is fully capable of repelling any direct aggression. Thus, it is following a strategy of inflicting little cuts to make Pakistan bleed.
The recent resurgence of Terrorism and sectarian violence in KPK , Gilgit and Balochistan are a step forward in this direction. The Baloch ethnic card has failed and now India is repeating the strategy it had adopted to sever East Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Tibet[x]. This time, India has the full support of Afghan Intelligence and the hostile non-Pashtun Northern Alliance.
On the flip side, Pakistani diplomats and officials have shown great maturity in handling the recent hostilities and statements by India. The establishment has also displayed a keen observation and understanding of the situation and has upped the display of Pakistans defence capabilities by testing a couple of ballistic missiles that have the capability of delivering punishment to any Armor blitzkrieg by carrying conventional and unconventional warheads.
With the drawdown of ISAF forces nearing, India wishes to fill the vacuum the international forces will leave and wants to be seen as the dominant force in the region by exercising influence on the region. And having a direct link to the Central Asian trade routes will definitely help in achieving that goal. India is once again formulating its policies under the influence of the old concept of Bharat Varsh and Hindu Rashtra. I believe this is high time the US and NATO should stop India from making this mistake and putting regional peace on the line, because Pakistan sure seems ready this time around.
END NOTES
________________________________________
http://mha.nic.in/pdfs/HM-OpenStat-050512.pdf
[ii] Speech by Sh. P. Chidambaram on "India
[iii] ?????? ?????? - ?BBC Urdu? - ??????? ??? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ?????
[iv] ?????? - ?BBC Urdu? - ???? ?? ??: ????? ??? ?? ?????? ???? ?????
[v] ?????? - ?BBC Urdu? - ???? ?? ??: ????? ??? ?? ?????? ???? ?????
[vi] India and Pakistan trade accusations over Kashmir violence - CNN.com
[vii] Indian troops killed soldier after questioning: Pakistan Army | Pakistan | DAWN.COM
[viii] Afzal Guru's hanging has created a dangerously radioactive political fallout | Arundhati Roy | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk
[ix] ?????? - ?BBC Urdu? - ??????: ????? ??? ?? ???? ??? ??? ?????
[x] Thomas A. Marks, Maoist insurgency since Vietnam, Frank Cass and company limited London.1996
Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad | KASHMIR: THE EMERGING BATTLEGROUND FOR CENTRAL ASIA
As the drawdown date for the US and NATO forces is coming closer, moves and counter-moves have already begun by powers who want to derive benefits from post US- led occupation of Afghanistan to link-up and create influence in mineral-rich Central Asia.
On 5 May 2012, Present Union Minister for Finance and then Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram, talking to Indian chief ministers at their National Counter Terrorism Strategy Conference, commented:
that given Indias 7516 km coastline, 15,106 km of international borders with seven countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, China, Bangladesh and Myanmar) and a number of international gateways, state Anti-Terrorist Forces would have to necessarily work with a number of agencies of the Central Government, especially when there are threats in the domain of sea, air and space..
On another instance, in his speech on Indias National Security Challenges and Priorities at K Subrahmanyam Memorial Lecture, on 6 Feb 2013, he repeated:
There are four physical domains in our world land, sea, air and space. We have a land border of a length of about 15,000 km with Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, China, Bangladesh and Myanmar, and even a small length of 106 km with Afghanistan[ii]
The two statements are quite controversial and coming from a senior member of the Indian government, cannot be ignored as a mistake, given that the two have a year in between. The on-ground and internationally accepted fact is that India does not have any border with Afghanistan unless it takes control of the entire Gilgit-Baltistan Agency from Pakistan, which borders with a small area of Afghanistan known as the Wakhan Corridor between Tajikistan and Pakistan.
The Gilgit and Baltistan became part of Pakistan in 1948 after its inhabitants defeated the Dogra Army to liberate their land and asked the government of Pakistan to annex them in the Pakistani state.
Chidambarams statements, linked with the rising tensions between India and Pakistan on the Line of Control (LoC) and the developing situation in Indian occupied Kashmir (IOK) clearly map out Indias intentions and its goal of acquiring land link with Afghanistan.
Looking back at the chronology of recent developments on the LoC, which separates Azad Kashmir and Indian Occupied Kashmir, we see sudden resurgence of hostilities.
On 6th Jan 2013, a Pakistan Army position in Bagh Sector was attacked by hostile Indian forces in which one soldier was martyred and another was wounded. The attack was repelled and the retreating Indian soldiers left their weapons [iii].
On 8th Jan 2013, the BBC reported That Indian commandos had attacked a Pakistani position in Poonch Sector killing a Pakistani soldier. The Indian Army claimed that Pakistani forces had attacked its position, killing two of its soldiers and mutilating their bodies [iv]. The Indian Army also threatened to seek revenge[v].
The Pakistan Army called for an investigation by UN observers [vi], but any India opposed the idea.
More recently, a 22-year-old Pakistani soldier who mistakenly crossed the LoC at the Nowshera Sector was killed in cold blood by the Indian army after questioning him [vii].
Simultaneously, Afzal Guru a Kashmiri suspect in the attack on Indian parliament building in 2002 was hanged, setting aside all principals of justice and then buried without the presence of his kith and kin[viii]. After his execution, protests broke out in IoK, The highhandedness shown by the Indian Army and establishment in quelling the protests points out that India is trying to create a controlled unrest in the occupied region. Nearly a dozen Kashmiries, including young children, have been killed by Indian security forces on the pretext of controlling protests.
India not only blames Pakistan for the armed tension on the LoC, but also accuses it of facilitating infiltration of freedom fighters into IoK.
A curious development in this situation is that Indian authorities have distributed pamphlets in occupied Kashmir on precautionary measures to be taken in case of a nuclear war [ix]. The authorities say the distribution of these pamphlets is a routine civil defense exercise.
Looking back at history and past and present strategic though pattern of the two neighbors we know that Kashmir would be the last place for a nuke attack if the two countries do fall into nuclear exchange.
Keeping the above points in mind, especially the Indian ministers claims of a border with Afghanistan, the countrys ambitions are quite clear. The country would like to occupy Gilgit Agency from Pakistan and pave the way for an unhindered road link to Afghanistan and central Asia. The road link to Wakhan Corridor is also desirable for India as the region will be under the control of the Northern Alliance, which is hostile to both Pashtuns and Pakistan, thus will be a secure trade alley for India.
However, the biggest hurdle in this plan is the loyalty and commitment of Gilgit-Baltistans people to Pakistan. Thus, India plans to maintain a level of unrest in Kashmir and using it as a ruse to extend the fighting to Gilgit. But India also knows that Pakistan is fully capable of repelling any direct aggression. Thus, it is following a strategy of inflicting little cuts to make Pakistan bleed.
The recent resurgence of Terrorism and sectarian violence in KPK , Gilgit and Balochistan are a step forward in this direction. The Baloch ethnic card has failed and now India is repeating the strategy it had adopted to sever East Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Tibet[x]. This time, India has the full support of Afghan Intelligence and the hostile non-Pashtun Northern Alliance.
On the flip side, Pakistani diplomats and officials have shown great maturity in handling the recent hostilities and statements by India. The establishment has also displayed a keen observation and understanding of the situation and has upped the display of Pakistans defence capabilities by testing a couple of ballistic missiles that have the capability of delivering punishment to any Armor blitzkrieg by carrying conventional and unconventional warheads.
With the drawdown of ISAF forces nearing, India wishes to fill the vacuum the international forces will leave and wants to be seen as the dominant force in the region by exercising influence on the region. And having a direct link to the Central Asian trade routes will definitely help in achieving that goal. India is once again formulating its policies under the influence of the old concept of Bharat Varsh and Hindu Rashtra. I believe this is high time the US and NATO should stop India from making this mistake and putting regional peace on the line, because Pakistan sure seems ready this time around.
END NOTES
________________________________________
http://mha.nic.in/pdfs/HM-OpenStat-050512.pdf
[ii] Speech by Sh. P. Chidambaram on "India
[iii] ?????? ?????? - ?BBC Urdu? - ??????? ??? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ?????
[iv] ?????? - ?BBC Urdu? - ???? ?? ??: ????? ??? ?? ?????? ???? ?????
[v] ?????? - ?BBC Urdu? - ???? ?? ??: ????? ??? ?? ?????? ???? ?????
[vi] India and Pakistan trade accusations over Kashmir violence - CNN.com
[vii] Indian troops killed soldier after questioning: Pakistan Army | Pakistan | DAWN.COM
[viii] Afzal Guru's hanging has created a dangerously radioactive political fallout | Arundhati Roy | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk
[ix] ?????? - ?BBC Urdu? - ??????: ????? ??? ?? ???? ??? ??? ?????
[x] Thomas A. Marks, Maoist insurgency since Vietnam, Frank Cass and company limited London.1996
Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad | KASHMIR: THE EMERGING BATTLEGROUND FOR CENTRAL ASIA
we are trying to give you "bore der" with Afghanistan dahhhhhhhhhhh
