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Irsa’s recipe for averting water crisis

ziaulislam

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he Indus River System Authority’s suggestion that the government should divert all development spending to building water reservoirs to overcome the approaching water crisis is too radical to receive the government’s nod. It does, however, convey the gravity of the situation and the need for urgent action to tackle the problem.

In a major departure, the Irsa, asks the government to freeze the country’s entire public sector development programme (PSDP) for five years and divert its funds towards construction of major water reservoirs on war footing. The suggestion was made in a letter, issued after a meeting of the Authority, attended by five members, and was sent to the secretary, water and power ministry on February 25 by chairman of Irsa.

The letter says “To put an end to the misery faced by the country, the PSDP for all sectors be frozen for at least five years and funds may be diverted for the construction of mega storages on priority basis in the best interest of public.”

IN the current fiscal year, an amount of Rs1.175trn was allocated to the consolidated PSDP to be funded by both provincial and federal budgets.

Aware that it was asking too much, the Irsa pleads for at least construction of 22m acre feet (MAF) storage capacity at the earliest. The Irsa proposal follows the fears expressed recently by minister for water and power Khwaja Asif about growing water shortages which, he said, ‘may force the people to forget current energy shortages.’


Federal planning minister Ahsan Iqbal warns that if new reservoirs are not built and available water resources not efficiently managed, half of the country may face a Thar-like drought
Many water experts and institutions such as the World Bank and US Senate foreign relations committee have, in recent past, been expressing concern over water shortages and warning Pakistan about a major water crisis in the next 10-40 years if no appropriate remedial measures were taken. Then, there are indications that Himalayan glaciers, contributing over 80pc water to the Indus river that feeds more than 65pc of the country’s agriculture, were receding at a rate of 30-50 metres annually. The Himalayas contain the world’s third largest ice mass after Antarctica and Greenland.

The fact remains that there is no escape from building big storages where water from floods could be preserved for multiple uses including irrigation. Federal planning minister Ahsan Iqbal warns that if new reservoirs are not built and available water resources not efficiently managed, half of the country may face a Thar-like drought. At present, Pakistan’s water storage capacity is around 7pc of the total available water.

Whenever floods hit the country and its agriculture, there are strong voices for construction of big dams and reservoirs to store the floodwater which goes waste. Soon after, these voices die down. Mirza Asif Baig, Pakistan commissioner for Indus waters, says the country would not have suffered colossal losses in terms of humans, property, crops, cattleheads and infrastructure, nor had the huge quantum of water thus released by swollen rivers gone waste, had there been more dams than the three: Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma.

Ahmer Bilal Soofi, a legal expert on water issues, says, “We can blame India’s conduct as an upper riparian state only up to a point for our water issues. What of our own conduct and responsibilities as a lower riparian state? Lamentably, we have been wasting our water resources with almost criminal negligence and abandon.” Articles 11 and 12 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, which Pakistan ratified in 2008, binds the country to better manage its territorial water resources in order to secure the right to water of its citizens.

The provinces, under Irsa’s water apportionment accord of 1991, are often seen more concerned about implementation of the agreed allocation of water to them while completely ignoring its Article 6 which states that ‘the need for storages, wherever feasible on the Indus and other rivers was admitted and recognised by the participants for planned future agricultural development’.

So far, the provinces have not come up with any meaningful water storage programme. This non-compliance by provinces also hinders the federation from fully performing its international law obligations.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business March 16th , 2015

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Irsa’s recipe for averting water crisis - Newspaper - DAWN.COM
 
Aware that it was asking too much, the Irsa pleads for at least construction of 22m acre feet (MAF) storage capacity at the earliest. The Irsa proposal follows the fears expressed recently by minister for water and power Khwaja Asif about growing water shortages which, he said, ‘may force the people to forget current energy shortages.’
I think this should be the number one issue taken up by opposition parties so that there is movement. Maybe the pressure helps move the dam projects... maybe hashtag damsnotbuses
 
I think this should be the number one issue taken up by opposition parties so that there is movement. Maybe the pressure helps move the dam projects... maybe hashtag damsnotbuses
Jab tak aag hamaray gharon tak nahi pauhanch jaati hum nai kuch nahi karna. By the time we react, I fear i will be too late.
 
Someone once posted planned storage dams which can't generate electricity. Which one are these? I wonder if they will ever be build? @ziaulislam
 
I think this should be the number one issue taken up by opposition parties so that there is movement. Maybe the pressure helps move the dam projects... maybe hashtag damsnotbuses
22MAF means a total of 15 billion dollars PSDP investment in bhahsah, akhori,Sanjwal and dok pathan/rotas

point is 35 MAF of on water storage dams can be build i.e are identified.
in addition 25 MAF of quick storage dams mostly in punjab can be build quickly with a fraction of cost and minimum power production.

which one will be build? most likely non, the reason is that they have to be build via PSDP allocation, not 100% but atleast 50% from PSDP. Every govt will think that building a motorway or metrobus is more profitable in terms of votes that building a dam.

for example they could have easily build sanjwal or akhori dam with money of metro buses.(i am not saying metro arent important)
or the amount of money that is lost every year in power sector is enough to fianace one mega dam every year!

a dam like akhori will cost about 4 billion $ with same storage and about 1/4 power production vs a 14 billion bhasha dam.


channelstorage_locationmap.gif

figure. off channel storages

salient_graphsurfacestorage.gif

original time frame that was suspended after PPPP and PML N era

only project that has saved us from utter disaster is the mangla uprising(3.0 MAF=1/2 bahsha) done in a dictator era, lucky us.
it increased pakistan storage 35%. thus bringing it back to 1970s level
 
22MAF means a total of 15 billion dollars PSDP investment in bhahsah, akhori,Sanjwal and dok pathan/rotas

point is 35 MAF of on water storage dams can be build i.e are identified.
in addition 25 MAF of quick storage dams mostly in punjab can be build quickly with a fraction of cost and minimum power production.

which one will be build? most likely non, the reason is that they have to be build via PSDP allocation, not 100% but atleast 50% from PSDP. Every govt will think that building a motorway or metrobus is more profitable in terms of votes that building a dam.

for example they could have easily build sanjwal or akhori dam with money of metro buses.(i am not saying metro arent important)
or the amount of money that is lost every year in power sector is enough to fianace one mega dam every year!

a dam like akhori will cost about 4 billion $ with same storage and about 1/4 power production vs a 14 billion bhasha dam.


channelstorage_locationmap.gif

figure. off channel storages

salient_graphsurfacestorage.gif

original time frame that was suspended after PPPP and PML N era

only project that has saved us from utter disaster is the mangla uprising(3.0 MAF=1/2 bahsha) done in a dictator era, lucky us.
it increased pakistan storage 35%. thus bringing it back to 1970s level

Dhok Pathan dam and Rohtas dam cannot generate electricty right? How much they will cost to build? 8.5 MAF and 5.75MAF is huge amunt of water storage, 15 MAF from these two dams alone. There is any controversy sorrounding these dams?

And add Akhori dam and Pakistan pretty much can store 21 MAF with just 3 dams
 
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Dhok Pathan dam and Rohtas dam cannot generate electricty right? How much they will cost to build? 8.5 MAF and 5.75MAF is huge amunt of water storage, 15 MAF from these two dams alone. There is any controversy sorrounding these dams?

And add Akhori dam and Pakistan pretty much can store 21 MAF with just 3 dams
there final feasibility reports have not been completed so its difficult to say. however they will produce at least 600-1000mw
all year long meaning a decent 3-6 billion units (equaling 60 billion rupees or approx a return rate of 10 years vs dasu having a RR of 3 years).

this is in part due to new bulb turbines that can produce power even from very low gradient capacity.
the very reason why chashma, jinnah barrage and some other barrages have been equipped with those new plants recently, before it was thought to be impossible to produce power there.
 
there final feasibility reports have not been completed so its difficult to say. however they will produce at least 600-1000mw
all year long meaning a decent 3-6 billion units (equaling 60 billion rupees or approx a return rate of 10 years vs dasu having a RR of 3 years).

this is in part due to new bulb turbines that can produce power even from very low gradient capacity.
the very reason why chashma, jinnah barrage and some other barrages have been equipped with those new plants recently, before it was thought to be impossible to produce power there.

Look like long term projects. GoP is trying to build dams with high RR. But the problem is non of them is have any storage capacity a part from Bhasha dam.
 
Look like long term projects. GoP is trying to build dams with high RR. But the problem is non of them is have any storage capacity a part from Bhasha dam.

i think its better to say it this way, Gop is building projects in which it can get 90-100% foreign financing, and those can only be run of the river project with high RR. i mean its win win for every body, govt is happy and banks are happy.

in storage dams you need to commit 25-50% self funding.
 
i think its better to say it this way, Gop is building projects in which it can get 90-100% foreign financing, and those can only be run of the river project with high RR. i mean its win win for every body, govt is happy and banks are happy.

in storage dams you need to commit 25-50% self funding.
How would you arrange the funds if it were up to you? Is there any other solution beside diverting PSDP funds?

@Gufi I would like you to answer the same question.
 
How would you arrange the funds if it were up to you? Is there any other solution beside diverting PSDP funds?

@Gufi I would like you to answer the same question.
for storage dams, i will say no other way, you have to commit 25-50% via your own money. now get that money via privatization and plugging holes in 500 billion public entities loss and 500 billion rupees tax exception to rich.

honestly its not that much..per year you need just 20-25 billion rupees to build akhori

For multipurpose dams like bhahsa we have several options
1. release sovereign investment bonds .
2. release bonds on existing assets
3. direct investment through country to country agreements.
4. open bidding, which will not work due to poor financial situation and rating of the country

anyone of the above will work however noone likes it. coz power generated via above agreements will be equal to furnace oil price these days i.e around 10 rs(vs WB/Asian bank 3-4rs). but govt tends to forget the enormous advantages that comes with it, i.e flood prevention, jobs and stimulation in GDP

option 1,2 will be difficult due to IMF for the govt, IMF will have to approve it.

I think the govt is waiting for asian bank regarding bhasha dam, whether it will commit 4$ dollars or not. previously it had given indication that it would

Also dasu already has financing but govt is not able to move the project forward due to other
inefficiencies
 
for storage dams, i will say no other way, you have to commit 25-50% via your own money. now get that money via privatization and plugging holes in 500 billion public entities loss and 500 billion rupees tax exception to rich.

honestly its not that much..per year you need just 20-25 billion rupees to build akhori

For multipurpose dams like bhahsa we have several options
1. release sovereign investment bonds .
2. release bonds on existing assets
3. direct investment through country to country agreements.
4. open bidding, which will not work due to poor financial situation and rating of the country

anyone of the above will work however noone likes it. coz power generated via above agreements will be equal to furnace oil price these days i.e around 10 rs(vs WB/Asian bank 3-4rs). but govt tends to forget the enormous advantages that comes with it, i.e flood prevention, jobs and stimulation in GDP

option 1,2 will be difficult due to IMF for the govt, IMF will have to approve it.

I think the govt is waiting for asian bank regarding bhasha dam, whether it will commit 4$ dollars or not. previously it had given indication that it would

Also dasu already has financing but govt is not able to move the project forward due to other
inefficiencies

Check this couple of days old news on Dasu update, things are finally moving somewhere. Dasu Phase 1 is very important, it will generate 12 billion units per year. Which is huge amount in Pak context.

Wapda signs two contracts for Dasu Hydropower Project @ Pakistan Herald
 
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