Iraq war has cost US $3 trillion till Nov ’06

[KashifAsrar]

Iraq war has cost US $3 trillion till Nov ’06


How long and costly has the US occupation of Iraq been?
The 2003 invasion of Iraq by a coalition of 40 countries (mainly US and UK) began on March 20, 2003 with the stated goal of destroying Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and ending Saddam Hussein’s rule. Baghdad fell on April 9, 2003 and US president Bush declared the end of major combat operations on May 1, 2003.
A recent study by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimates that more than 601,000 Iraqis have died in the war and its aftermath, of which about one-third were directly caused by the coalition forces. Over 1.6 million Iraqis have become refugees. The economic cost of the war for US citizens has been estimated to be $3 trillion till November 2006. The occupying army has lost 2,872 US soldiers and 247 soldiers from other countries, while the number of injured is over 46,000.

What happened after the war officially ended in 2003?
In 2004, limited sovereignty was transferred to the Iraq Interim Governing Council. In 2005, the constitution of Iraq was ratified. Meanwhile, the occupying army of coalition forces admitted that no weapons of mass destruction could be found and neither was any link with Al Qaida discovered.
The US announced take over of the oil industry of Iraq, which has the second largest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia, estimated at 112 billion barrels of crude oil. However, division among Iraqi ethnic groups has escalated into sectarian civil war.

What is the sectarian conflict about?
In ethnic terms, Arabs constitute 75%, and Kurds make up 20% in Iraq. About 95% of the population is Muslim, of which Shias are 65% and Sunnis 32%. The Kurds are mainly Sunni. The main conflict is now between the Shias and Sunnis. The Kurds have wanted to have their own homeland and they aspire for unity with Kurds in other countries like Turkey in the north and Iran in the east. Other social, economic, regional and even personal loyalty based divisions often blur these ethnic and religious divisions. Iran largely backs the Shias, while other Arab regimes support the Sunnis. The US initially exploited these divisions, but they have now spun out of control. Fears of a civil war are reverberating in the whole of West Asia.

Can the coalition forces do anything?
It is looking increasingly unlikely. There is a delicately balanced Iraqi government set up by the US, headed by prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, which is increasingly ineffective in bringing about any order in the country. British and American troops are also unable to either protect themselves from angry attacks or prevent sectarian violence. In the West, the increasing number of casualties and involvement in violence has caused many to turn against the war. The chief of Britain’s army, Sir Richard Dannatt, has called for British troops to be withdrawn “soon” from Iraq. President Bush has admitted that the situation in Iraq was comparable to the Tet offensive in 1968 during the Vietnam war, which was the beginning of the end for United States armed intervention in Vietnam.
British prime minister Tony Blair, one of the strongest advocates of the war, has also acknowledged it has been a disaster. The war is seen as the main cause of the defeat of Republicans in the US Congress elections and it led secretary of state Donald Rumsfeld.

What are the possible future scenarios?
The United States is still talking of an “adapt-to-win” strategy. However, the options boil down to just these: Send in more troops — being advocated by some hardliners, but most experts agree that it will be politically unfeasible; contain the violence — but there appears to be no strategy or plan for this; pullout — this can be done either in a phased manner over a few years leaving residual forces, or rapidly within months.
This could be coupled with diplomatic and political efforts. It may include calling a peace conference, which could involve other players like Syria, Iran or even China, apart from other Arab states.
The US is intrinsically resistant to this; finally, divide Iraq into Sunni, Shia and Kurd regions with autonomy with overall control in a federal set up — this could be but a stepping stone for final trifurcation of the country. However, US experts are worried about the oil and that each part may go over to hardline Islamic factions that will be anti-American.

 

[KashifAsrar]

‘Iraq insurgency now self-sustaining’

Groups Responsible For Terror Attacks Raising Up To $200 Million A Year, Says US Govt Report


John F Burns & Kirk Semple



Baghdad: The insurgency in Iraq is now self-sustaining financially, raising tens of millions of dollars a year from oil smuggling, kidnapping, counterfeiting, connivance by corrupt Islamic charities and other crimes ( so now if Iraqis use thier own resources it is a crime ! Hail democracy and Freedom !!. Kashif )that the Iraqi government and its American patrons have been largely unable to prevent, a classified US government report has concluded.
The report, obtained by the New York Times, estimates that groups responsible for many insurgent and terrorist attacks are raising $70 million to $200 million a year from illegal activities. It says $25 million to $100 million of that comes from oil smuggling and other criminal activity involving the state-owned oil industry, aided by “corrupt and complicit” Iraqi officials.
As much as $36 million a year comes from ransoms paid for hundreds of kidnap victims, the report says. It estimates that unnamed foreign governments — previously identified by American officials as including France and Italy — paid $30 million in ransom last year.
A copy of the seven-page report said the findings could improve understanding of the challenges the US faces in Iraq.
The report offers little hope that much can be done, at least soon, to choke off insurgent revenues. For one thing, it acknowledges how little the American authorities in Iraq know — three and a half years after the invasion that toppled Saddam — about crucial aspects of insurgent operations.
For another, it paints an almost despairing picture of the Iraqi government’s ability, or willingness, to take steps to tamp down the insurgency’s financing. “If accurate,” the report say, its estimates indicate that these “sources of terrorist and insurgent finance within Iraq — independent of foreign sources — are currently sufficient to sustain the groups’ existence and operation.” To this, it adds what may be its most surprising conclusion: “In fact, if recent revenue and expense estimates are correct, terrorist and insurgent groups in Iraq may have surplus funds with which to support other terrorist organisations outside of Iraq.”
A Bush administration official confirmed the investigating group’s existence. He said it was led by Juan Zarate, deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism, and was made up of about a dozen people, drawn from the CIA, the FBI, the Defence Intelligence Agency, the state department, the treasury department and the US Central Command.
The group’s estimate of the financing for the insurgency, even taking the higher figure of $200 million, underscores the David and Goliath nature of the war.
American, Iraqi and other coalition forces are fighting an array of shadowy Sunni and Shia groups that can draw on huge armouries left over from Saddam’s days, and benefit from the willingness of many insurgents to fight with little or no pay. If the $200 million a year estimate is close to the mark, it amounts to less than what it costs the Pentagon, with an $8 billion monthly budget for Iraq, to sustain the American war effort here for a single day.
But other estimates suggest the sums involved could be far higher. The oil ministry in Baghdad estimated earlier this year that 10 to 30% of the $4 billion to $5 billion in fuel imported for public consumption in 2005 was smuggled back out of the country for resale.
At that time, the finance minister estimated that close to half of all smuggling profits was going to insurgents. If true, that would be $200 million or more from fuel smuggling alone. NYT NEWS SERVICE