Indigenisation of insurgency in Indian Kashmir likely to lead to more frequent unrest and greater lo

[Zarvan]

A woman walks past graffiti of Burhan Wani in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on August 2016. Source: PA
Key Points

• The unrest in Jammu and Kashmir - triggered by the killing of a prominent militant - indicates that public support for militants and antipathy towards the Indian government have increased drastically.
• Civil unrest and risks of disruption to businesses are likely to remain high in Kashmir in the one-year outlook, with the government to date having shown limited options for defusing the conflict.
• The growing indigenisation of the insurgency - and an increased focus on civil rights issues and move away from radical Islamist ideology by activists - will likely increase the difficulties faced by the government in quelling protests in the longer term.

The recent wave of unrest in Jammu and Kashmir state was triggered by the killing of Burhan Muzaffar Wani, a Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) militant, by security forces on 8 July. Rather than being an active militant, Wani had developed a reputation as a local resistance hero through his use of social media. Moreover, Wani represented a new type of Kashmiri militant: a young local who had joined HM as a reaction to his brother being mistreated by security forces. The greater influx of such local youths, as compared with the older, Pakistan-based militants, has altered the nature of the insurgency in Kashmir.

Local Kashmiris now form the bulk of active militants in the state. According to local police estimates, of 200 active militants, just 40 are now of Pakistani origin. Most of the new recruits are locally trained, and have not crossed into Pakistan to spend time in militant training facilities. In real terms, cross-border infiltration attempts from Pakistan have in fact declined, from 277 in 2013 to 121 in 2015, according to figures from the Ministry of Home Affairs.

The profile of militants has also changed during recent years. Like Wani, who came from an affluent family, the new cadres - who have mostly joined HM - tend to be more educated.

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