Incoming Joint Chiefs chairman calls Russia, China top threats

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Incoming Joint Chiefs chairman calls Russia, China top threats
By Leo Shane III, Staff writer 12:47 p.m. EDT July 9, 2015

(Photo: Mike Morones/Staff)

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In terms of national security threats, the headline-grabbing Islamic State militants that the U.S. is seeking to subdue in Iraq are less of a concern than Russia and China, the incoming chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday.

Commandant of the Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Dunford, in line to assume the nation's highest military post later this summer, cited Russia's nuclear weapon stockpile and aggressive, unpredictable actions as reasons that country presents the most serious near-term threat to worldwide stability.

"They present the greatest existential threat," he told the Senate Armed Services Committee at his confirmation hearing. "If you look at their behavior, it's nothing short of alarming."

He also cited China's military strength and North Korea's erratic international actions as other top concerns, listing the Islamic State threat in Iraq and Syria below the potential actions of those countries.

But he emphasized that "you can't attack those issues in sequence," and said his greatest worry as a military commander is still the threats that have not yet emerged.

"What keeps me up at night is our ability to respond to the unexpected," he said. "On balance, our force can deal with the challenges that we have now. But there is very little residual capability."

Thursday's hearing was mostly a friendly event for Dunford, one that included as many partisan shots between lawmakers as questions for the nominee himself. Even before the hearing, senators had voiced strong support for him, citing his distinguished résumé over 28 years of service and recent work as commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

But Dunford did disappoint several lawmakers who hoped to score political points at the hearing, dodging leading questions while promising open and honest answers in his new role overseeing military forces.

When asked if embedding U.S. special operations forces with Iraqi units could boost their efforts against Islamic State militants, Dunford replied that American troops can always help make foreign allies more effective.

When asked how those enemy fighters could be destroyed within 90 days, he replied that fixing the underlying issues that allowed their rapid rise will take years of interagency work to fix.

Lawmakers from both parties sparred over blame for looming budget cuts and the possibility of a presidential veto of the 2016 defense budget. Dunford said the tightened funding presents potentially serious limits on military readiness, and added that he hopes for a compromise in the coming months.

Future hearings likely won't be as welcoming for Dunford. If confirmed, he'll be back on Capitol Hill this fall to answer questions about the ongoing Iraq campaign, integration of women into combat roles, and military support for Syrian rebels and Ukrainian forces.

Just two days earlier, current Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey and Defense Secretary Ash Carter faced blistering questioning from the same Senate committee over concerns with the seemingly stalled efforts to defeat the Islamic State in the Middle East.

A full Senate confirmation vote is expected on Dunford before Congress breaks for its August recess. Dempsey is scheduled to retire in September.

 

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Russia Tops Dunford’s Threat List, New NATO Deterrence Model ‘Needs to be a Priority’

NATO and the U.S. need new tools to deter increasing Russian aggression as conflict in Eastern Ukraine continues to rage, said Marine commandant Gen. Joseph Dunford during his Thursday nomination hearing to serve as the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Labeling Russia as “the greatest threat to our national security” and calling their actions “nothing short of alarming” Dunford said the U.S. and NATO needed 21st century deterrence models to counter the Kremlin’s recent hybrid strategies of political and unconventional warfare in Eastern Europe — notably Ukraine.

“Our experience in Ukraine… highlights that we need to update our deterrence and response model to deal with the type of threat we have today,” he told the panel.
“Quite frankly that needs to be a priority.”

In 2014 — during the political instability following the ouster of former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych — Russia seized Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula via a political appeal to Russian-speaking residents and by allegedly dispatching insignia-free troops — so-called “little green men” — into the region to back up the Kremlin’s political machinations.

“That asymmetric threat will be one that we continue to see in the future and in the European context,” Dunford said.
“In Russia we have a nuclear power. Not only one that has the capability to violate the sovereignty of our allies and to do things that are inconsistent with our national interest but they are in the process of doing so. If you want to talk about a nation that could pose an existential threat to the United States, I would have to point to Russia and if you look at their behavior, it’s nothing short of alarming.”

Since the seizure of Crimea, NATO and the U.S. have stepped up presence missions in the Black Sea and in NATO Baltic states while Russia has also mounted its own uptick in worldwide military operations — particularly air and submarine patrols.

Politically, the West has mounted sanctions against the Russia —notably cancelling the sale of two French amphibious warships to the Russian Navy.

Despite more than a year of sanctions and presence missions, the Kremlin has neither softened in its support for Eastern Ukrainian separatists nor reduced its military footprint.

In addition to calls for NATO to revamp its approach to Russia, he also said arming Ukrainian forces with heavier anti-tank weapons — like the FGM-148 Javelin and the BGM-71 TOW — would be a militarily sound decision.

“From a military perspective, I think it’s reasonable that we provide that support to the Ukrainians and frankly without that kind of support they are not going to be able to protect themselves from Russian aggression,” he said in response to a question from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) on arming Ukrainian forces.

Despite Russia’s ranking on his threat list, Dunford said it was still important to maintain ties with the Russian military. Prior to the Ukraine conflict, the Russian military was included in NATO meetings and had more exchanges with Western militaries.

“Even as the relationship is challenged right now, it’s important that we maintain a military-to-military links with our Russian counterparts to mitigate the risk of miscalculation and turn the trend in the other direction in terms of trust,” Dunford said.

Beyond Russia, Dunford singled out China, North Korea and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as top national security concerns.

“If I had to rack and stack them today, I’d have Russian down as number one. I’d have China down as number two.” he said.
“It doesn’t mean that we view China as an enemy but as someone in uniform, I get paid to look at someone’s intent and their capability. When I look at Chinese capability relative to our interests in the Pacific, I would have to consider China as an area of concern for security — distinct from a threat.”

During the mostly genial hearing, Dunford stressed the importance of the ongoing Department of Defense planned pivot or rebalance to the Pacific .

“We have an unprecedented level of exercises and engagement in the Pacific to assert our influence and provide a stabilizing presence,” he said.
The rebalance, “provides a security infrastructure that we can use to advance our national interests. That’s what has existed for the past 70 years and the rebalance … is designed to modernize that security infrastructure and make sure it’s in place so just as we protect our national interest over the past 70 years, we can do that in the future as well. “

Part of the continuing effort means revised relationships with current and potential U.S. allies.

“It’s going to require that we modernize our alliances and you’ve seen some progress in that regard — our relationship with South Korea, our relationship with Japan, our relationship with the Philippines, Vietnam, India, Australia have all been adjusted here in recent months,” he said.

China — especially in the South China Sea — has accused the U.S. of manipulating smaller countries in the region as well as creating an “Iron Triangle” between the U.S., Australia and Japan to suppress Chinese expansion.

On the acquisition front, Dunford supported the ongoing stance of the U.S. Navy in funding the estimated $100 billion Ohio-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine outside of the Navy’s shipbuilding account.

“I am very familiar with the budgetary implications of the Ohio-class reaplcement program on the Department of the Navy’s long range shipbuilding plan and what I can tell you with a degree of surety is: Were we to fund the Ohio-class replacement out of the Department of the Navy it would have a pretty adverse effect on the rest of the shipbuilding plan — the estimates are somewhere between [a loss of] two-and-a-half or three ships a year” he said.
“Ohio-class replacement is, the U.S. Navy —in terms of the forward presence they provide, in terms of the warfighting capability — has many other capabilities that are critical to our nation as well. It would be difficult to balance those were the Ohio-class replacement would be required to be paid for within the Department of the Navy’s resources.”

Popular within the Pentagon, Congress and the administration, Dunford will likely be easily confirmed to replace Army Gen. Martin Dempsey as chairman of the Joint Chiefs later this year.

Dunford’s replacement as Marine commandant, Lt. Gen. Robert Neller, was announced last week.

Russia Tops Dunford’s Threat List, New NATO Deterrence Model ‘Needs to be a Priority’ - USNI News