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IMF to review 'massive challenge' of flood-hit Pakistan

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IMF to review 'massive challenge' of flood-hit Pakistan

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Pakistan says the cost of rebuilding could be as high as $15bn

The International Monetary Fund says the floods that have struck Pakistan pose a "massive economic challenge" and it will review the country's budget and financial prospects.

The IMF will start talks with Pakistani officials in Washington on Monday to assess how best to give help.

Tens of thousands more Pakistanis have been fleeing the floods, with the south now bearing the brunt.

Overall, about 1,600 people have been killed and 20 million affected.


Masood Ahmed, director of the Middle East and Central Asia department of the IMF, said in a statement: "The floods which have hit Pakistan in recent weeks and brought suffering to millions of people will also pose a massive economic challenge to the people and government of Pakistan.

"The scale of the tragedy means that the country's budget and macroeconomic prospects, which are being supported by an IMF-financed programme, will also need to be reviewed."

Mr Ahmed said that the IMF stood by Pakistan "at this difficult time".

The IMF agreed a rescue package with Pakistan two years ago as the country was then weighed down by soaring inflation, shrinking reserves and fighting militancy.

The Pakistan government has said that the cost of rebuilding after the floods could be as high as $15bn (£10bn).
Trying to survive

The BBC's Mike Wooldridge in Islamabad says there are concerns about higher inflation and lower growth, along with higher food prices caused by disruption to supply routes.

He says the extensive damage to the agricultural industry as a whole is another heavy blow because this is such an important part of the economy.

Meanwhile, tens of thousands more Pakistanis are being displaced in the southern province of Sindh, which is now being described as the country's worst hit province.

The BBC's Jill McGivering, who has in Sukkur in Sindh, says families are visible everywhere - on riverbanks, open ground and along the roadside.

About one-tenth of the homeless have places in relief camps, the rest are trying to survive alone, without shelter or any assurance of food, she says. Aid is being provided but it is limited and in enormous demand.

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Dozens more villages have been inundated and although authorities expect flood waters to drain into the Arabian Sea over the next few days, evacuees who return may find their homes and livelihoods have been washed away.

The UN says it has now raised about 70% of the $460m it called for in its emergency appeal, as donors pledged more money.

Pakistan has also accepted $5m (£3.2m) in aid from its rival and neighbour India.

The floods began last month in Pakistan's north-west after heavy monsoon rains and have since swept south, swamping thousands of towns and villages in Punjab and Sindh provinces.

The UN said on Friday that more helicopters were urgently needed to reach communities cut off by the water.

Experts warn of a second wave of deaths from water-borne diseases such as cholera unless flood victims have access to supplies of fresh drinking water.

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BBC News - IMF to review 'massive challenge' of flood-hit Pakistan
 
FT.com / Asia-Pacific - Pakistan asks for leeway on fiscal reforms

Pakistan asks for leeway on fiscal reforms

Pakistan started talks with the International Monetary Fund on Monday in a bid to ease further strains in a financial rescue plan that had been struggling even before the country was hit by devastating floods.

Pakistani officials have asked for leeway in implementing the tough conditions in the $11.3bn (€8.9bn, £7.3bn) lending programme, first agreed in 2008 and enlarged in 2009. Monday’s talks were at a technical level, with Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, Pakistan’s finance minister, due to arrive towards the end of the week.

But experts say the IMF may face difficulty in adapting its crisis-lending function to a country needing large amounts of humanitarian aid.

The IMF on Monday did not respond to requests for comment, but a letter published on Saturday from Masood Ahmed, head of the fund’s Middle East and Central Asia department, suggested that the fund was open to renegotiating the agreement. “The scale of the tragedy means that the country’s budget and macroeconomic prospects, which are being supported by an IMF financed programme, will also need to be reviewed,” Mr Ahmed said.

Pakistan, which had been borrowing heavily from international investors and suffered rising inflation, was hit hard in 2008 by the worldwide food crisis and then the global recession. After China had turned down Pakistani appeals for a bilateral rescue, Islamabad agreed a three-year deal with the IMF. Although inflation fell and the current account deficit narrowed under the terms of the programme, Pakistan has found it hard to raise tax revenue to close the government budget deficit and has repeatedly missed targets agreed with the fund. Islamabad has also failed to prevent loss-making electricity companies and other public enterprises continuing to burden the public finances.

Experts in IMF programmes said the floods would make these challenges even worse through a combination of the direct fiscal cost, the need to focus all ministerial attention on the floods and the domestic political damage the government is sustaining thanks to perceptions that its response has been slow and inadequate.

Eswar Prasad, former head of the fund’s China department and now at Cornell University, said: “The government has lost a lot of popularity as a result of its response to the floods and because of the security situation. Serious reform carries short-run political costs, and even after the crisis is over they will not want to do it.”

Prof Prasad suggested that the IMF might continue to pay out loans while temporarily relaxing the conditions placed on them. But he said that Pakistan needed a large amount of humanitarian aid very quickly and that the IMF, which gives loans rather than grants, was not best placed to deliver it.

“The IMF is not well adapted to cope with situations like this,’ he said. “It is not set up to give money with no strings attached.”
 
FT.com / Asia-Pacific - Pakistan asks for leeway on fiscal reforms

Pakistan asks for leeway on fiscal reforms

Pakistan started talks with the International Monetary Fund on Monday in a bid to ease further strains in a financial rescue plan that had been struggling even before the country was hit by devastating floods.

Pakistani officials have asked for leeway in implementing the tough conditions in the $11.3bn (€8.9bn, £7.3bn) lending programme, first agreed in 2008 and enlarged in 2009. Monday’s talks were at a technical level, with Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, Pakistan’s finance minister, due to arrive towards the end of the week.

But experts say the IMF may face difficulty in adapting its crisis-lending function to a country needing large amounts of humanitarian aid.

The IMF on Monday did not respond to requests for comment, but a letter published on Saturday from Masood Ahmed, head of the fund’s Middle East and Central Asia department, suggested that the fund was open to renegotiating the agreement. “The scale of the tragedy means that the country’s budget and macroeconomic prospects, which are being supported by an IMF financed programme, will also need to be reviewed,” Mr Ahmed said.

Pakistan, which had been borrowing heavily from international investors and suffered rising inflation, was hit hard in 2008 by the worldwide food crisis and then the global recession. After China had turned down Pakistani appeals for a bilateral rescue, Islamabad agreed a three-year deal with the IMF. Although inflation fell and the current account deficit narrowed under the terms of the programme, Pakistan has found it hard to raise tax revenue to close the government budget deficit and has repeatedly missed targets agreed with the fund. Islamabad has also failed to prevent loss-making electricity companies and other public enterprises continuing to burden the public finances.

Experts in IMF programmes said the floods would make these challenges even worse through a combination of the direct fiscal cost, the need to focus all ministerial attention on the floods and the domestic political damage the government is sustaining thanks to perceptions that its response has been slow and inadequate.

Eswar Prasad, former head of the fund’s China department and now at Cornell University, said: “The government has lost a lot of popularity as a result of its response to the floods and because of the security situation. Serious reform carries short-run political costs, and even after the crisis is over they will not want to do it.”

Prof Prasad suggested that the IMF might continue to pay out loans while temporarily relaxing the conditions placed on them. But he said that Pakistan needed a large amount of humanitarian aid very quickly and that the IMF, which gives loans rather than grants, was not best placed to deliver it.

“The IMF is not well adapted to cope with situations like this,’ he said. “It is not set up to give money with no strings attached.”

Why china will not support Pakistan by giving more aids and loan ? they were always with Pakistan and if they can give nuclear reactor (for civilian use) why not money . They have enough , they are giving it to many other nations in Billions $$$(as loan but cheaper than world bank without any financial terms like world bank) .
 
This country requires 100 billions of aid instantly! if we are talking about the revival of our economy and brighter future

100 billion dollars with no strings attached!
 
This country requires 100 billions of aid instantly! if we are talking about the revival of our economy and brighter future

100 billion dollars with no strings attached!

100 Billion Dollars in aid? Where are the damage assessment reports? Relief work is still going on, floods are still carrying out destruction by the second and the Government is asking for "Specific" figures in Aid. Just goes to show what their motives are.

Should be enough for anyone to realize where all that foreign aid will go.
 
I said it before this is the third time, to feed and I mean "to feed" 20 million people a minimum 1.5 billion dollars a month is required for food as survival kits, the urgency and requirement is more then that, their houses, revival of agriculture and aid to farmers and the rest, medical treatments and so on...It will take a decade to recover fully from such disaster.
 
I said it before this is the third time, to feed and I mean "to feed" 20 million people a minimum 1.5 billion dollars a month is required for food as survival kits, the urgency and requirement is more then that, their houses, revival of agriculture and aid to farmers and the rest, medical treatments and so on...It will take a decade to recover fully from such disaster.

I totally agree with you. Even with your figures. It may be more than 1.5 billion dollars , because when you have to feed them for months you need more things than just food. You need shelter (more than tent, winter in on its way), continuous medical supply, cloths for them other house hold things. above mentioned things are just to survive. To get things back to normal you need new housing , to make them you need to clear mud then build roads get raw supply. Train some of these people ( they will get work ), pay them to build their own villages. Get schools in place to keep children busy (priority), build new infrastructure on banks of Indus to prevent same story. Finally but most important make local gov. agencies fully functional and efficient without corruption.
 
Is IMF planning to give Pakistan more and more and more loan?
 
Yes Pakistan Govt is more interested in Loans. Govt has failed to tell IMF to face we'll not pay you indefinitely until things come to normal just like Dubai did.

The 1.5 Billion dollars is the figure for just small survival food kits of approximately between 350-450 Rupees per family of 4 at the most that would barely fill their stomach for the next 3 days, just for "survival".
 
Don't tell IMF anything , but don't follow their conditions. They are too late for improvement or GOP don't want to improve(for e.g Main bank of country was without governor for 50 days in grave economy, can't GOP find one person out of 160 million + many thousands more abroad to take this job immediately) It is not practical to increase price for anything any more. Subsidies are way to give monetary space to poor people and provide them with better services so they can be at some level in future. Just stop misuse of funds any more at least for year or so. As per my knowledge GOP have enough food to feed 20 million people. Make better storage and stop exporting it. Release food to market so prices will come down (GOP have to make sure) . give it to flood victims freely for some time after give them food against work they did or at very little price. This will resolve issue of food . You guys have huge infrastructure damages, with Aid money build it and give work to flood victims. they will get work and money to spend on other things.
 

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