BanglaBhoot
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PASCHIM DWARA, India Skinny, weathered peasants gathered berries falling from a butter tree as Rahul Gandhi, heir apparent to the governing Indian National Congress, drove across these baked plains, part of a hectic campaign tour to pitch his party as champions of the poor.
At every campaign stop, Mr. Gandhi, 38, fourth-generation scion of the countrys premier political dynasty, rattles off antipoverty programs begun by the Congress-led coalition government: a law that promises 100 days of employment to the poor, greater financing for schools, major debt forgiveness for farmers. More largess is forthcoming, he says, if voters return Congress to power in national elections that start on Thursday.
Exactly what will happen when Indias 714 million eligible voters head to the polls in the worlds biggest exercise in democracy is difficult to forecast, this year even more than in the past. Few dare to predict what unwieldy coalition may replace the one that has presided since 2004.
But one thing is certain. The next government will confront tough choices as it seeks to balance the need to spur economic growth, which is slowing down for the first time in a decade, with the need to address the anxieties of Indias poor.
Three economic stimulus packages have widened Indias fiscal deficit to some of the highest levels since it began opening its socialist economy in the early 1990s, and Western credit rating agencies say a raft of new spending promises by Congress and other parties threatens the countrys already low credit rating.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, a former economics professor, defended his governments borrowing plan this week, saying that it was necessary to stimulate the economy and to soften the harsh edges of extreme poverty. More than 40 percent of Indians live below the World Bank poverty line of $1.25 a day.
Mr. Singh led the opening of the Indian economy as finance minister in 1991. But his Congress-led government has, by its own admission, taken the slow road on structural reforms, even as it has enjoyed an average 9 percent growth during its tenure. Congresss critics point out that even highway construction, widely accepted as critical to Indias economic growth, has slowed.
Some economists worry that another fragile coalition would be hard pressed to further liberalize the economy, particularly on measures like expanding foreign investment in banking and insurance. Others warn that the next government will have to choose more carefully between populist giveaways and measures that genuinely kick-start the economy.
Mr. Gandhis party, for its part, has congratulated itself for having insulated India somewhat from the impact of the worldwide recession. India has relied less on exports to generate growth, protected its farmers and relegated foreign banks to the margins of its financial system.
We are seen as having bucked the trend of global contagion, Mr. Gandhi said in an interview, by moving more slowly toward an open economy than neighboring China and other Asian economies. Sonia Gandhi, Rahuls mother and the president of the Congress Party, recently hailed her mother-in-law, Indira Gandhi, for having nationalized the countrys banks as prime minister in the 1970s.
Today, in an intensely competitive political environment, every party promises benefits. Both Congress and its principal opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party, offer hugely subsidized rice, the staple grain. A southern regional party, the Telugu Desam Party, promises cash to women below the poverty line. The B.J.P. promises to spend heavily on building roads and highways. Kumari Mayawati, the Dalit outcaste leader of this state, Uttar Pradesh, the most populous in India, promises an expansion of set-asides in government jobs.
These are campaign promises, subject to the horse-trading that will begin after the election results are announced on May 16.
Neither Congress nor the B.J.P., the two largest parties, has won a majority of seats in the 543-member Parliament in nearly 20 years. They are not expected to this time. New alliances will have to be stitched.
There is even a slim chance that the smaller parties, each representing the aspirations of Indias many regions and castes, could cobble together a so-called Third Front government, leaving the two national parties on the sidelines.
No matter who the next leaders are, chances are there will be no radical moves either way. In this campaign season, no one is seriously proposing to seal off the Indian economy from the outside world. No one is campaigning for radical structural reforms, either. No one ever does at election time.
Economic reform is pursued by stealth, Meghnad Desai, an economist, wrote recently in Tehelka, a weekly newsmagazine.
The chances of allowing greater foreign investment in, say, banking or insurance, are small, as are those of slimming down a government bureaucracy, said Laveesh Bhandari, who runs a nonpartisan economic research firm, Indicus Analytics, in New Delhi.
The next administration could find it easier to spend on infrastructure and social welfare, including on things like improving education and health, which economists say could fuel Indias economic advance. Yes, its fiscal space is limited, and thats why it has got to make hard choices, said Dipak Dasgupta, lead economist for India at the World Bank in New Delhi. Democracy will probably end up taking it in the right direction.
Rajeev Chandrasekhar, a member of the unelected upper house of Parliament who runs an investment company called Jupiter, argued that deeper reforms would get on the agenda only if economic prospects deteriorated sharply. India, he noted, began opening up its economy in 1991, only when the governments foreign exchange was nearly depleted. India responds best in times of crisis, he said.
As Mr. Gandhi drove through the countryside on his recent campaign tour, his well-wishers showered his car with rose petals. The scorching air grew fragrant for a moment. He and Sonia, the Italian-born party chief, waved from inside.
We feel that we need to hold the hands of the poor people, Mr. Gandhi said at a rally earlier in the week. At another, he chided the opposition for focusing on the stock market.
Across rural India, acts of god and government have saved the people from ruin in recent years. The rains have been good. The fields heave with wheat ready for harvest. The economic crisis is not felt in these parts, as it is in Indias globalized cities, and this is where most of the votes are.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/world/asia/15india.html?_r=1&hpw
At every campaign stop, Mr. Gandhi, 38, fourth-generation scion of the countrys premier political dynasty, rattles off antipoverty programs begun by the Congress-led coalition government: a law that promises 100 days of employment to the poor, greater financing for schools, major debt forgiveness for farmers. More largess is forthcoming, he says, if voters return Congress to power in national elections that start on Thursday.
Exactly what will happen when Indias 714 million eligible voters head to the polls in the worlds biggest exercise in democracy is difficult to forecast, this year even more than in the past. Few dare to predict what unwieldy coalition may replace the one that has presided since 2004.
But one thing is certain. The next government will confront tough choices as it seeks to balance the need to spur economic growth, which is slowing down for the first time in a decade, with the need to address the anxieties of Indias poor.
Three economic stimulus packages have widened Indias fiscal deficit to some of the highest levels since it began opening its socialist economy in the early 1990s, and Western credit rating agencies say a raft of new spending promises by Congress and other parties threatens the countrys already low credit rating.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, a former economics professor, defended his governments borrowing plan this week, saying that it was necessary to stimulate the economy and to soften the harsh edges of extreme poverty. More than 40 percent of Indians live below the World Bank poverty line of $1.25 a day.
Mr. Singh led the opening of the Indian economy as finance minister in 1991. But his Congress-led government has, by its own admission, taken the slow road on structural reforms, even as it has enjoyed an average 9 percent growth during its tenure. Congresss critics point out that even highway construction, widely accepted as critical to Indias economic growth, has slowed.
Some economists worry that another fragile coalition would be hard pressed to further liberalize the economy, particularly on measures like expanding foreign investment in banking and insurance. Others warn that the next government will have to choose more carefully between populist giveaways and measures that genuinely kick-start the economy.
Mr. Gandhis party, for its part, has congratulated itself for having insulated India somewhat from the impact of the worldwide recession. India has relied less on exports to generate growth, protected its farmers and relegated foreign banks to the margins of its financial system.
We are seen as having bucked the trend of global contagion, Mr. Gandhi said in an interview, by moving more slowly toward an open economy than neighboring China and other Asian economies. Sonia Gandhi, Rahuls mother and the president of the Congress Party, recently hailed her mother-in-law, Indira Gandhi, for having nationalized the countrys banks as prime minister in the 1970s.
Today, in an intensely competitive political environment, every party promises benefits. Both Congress and its principal opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party, offer hugely subsidized rice, the staple grain. A southern regional party, the Telugu Desam Party, promises cash to women below the poverty line. The B.J.P. promises to spend heavily on building roads and highways. Kumari Mayawati, the Dalit outcaste leader of this state, Uttar Pradesh, the most populous in India, promises an expansion of set-asides in government jobs.
These are campaign promises, subject to the horse-trading that will begin after the election results are announced on May 16.
Neither Congress nor the B.J.P., the two largest parties, has won a majority of seats in the 543-member Parliament in nearly 20 years. They are not expected to this time. New alliances will have to be stitched.
There is even a slim chance that the smaller parties, each representing the aspirations of Indias many regions and castes, could cobble together a so-called Third Front government, leaving the two national parties on the sidelines.
No matter who the next leaders are, chances are there will be no radical moves either way. In this campaign season, no one is seriously proposing to seal off the Indian economy from the outside world. No one is campaigning for radical structural reforms, either. No one ever does at election time.
Economic reform is pursued by stealth, Meghnad Desai, an economist, wrote recently in Tehelka, a weekly newsmagazine.
The chances of allowing greater foreign investment in, say, banking or insurance, are small, as are those of slimming down a government bureaucracy, said Laveesh Bhandari, who runs a nonpartisan economic research firm, Indicus Analytics, in New Delhi.
The next administration could find it easier to spend on infrastructure and social welfare, including on things like improving education and health, which economists say could fuel Indias economic advance. Yes, its fiscal space is limited, and thats why it has got to make hard choices, said Dipak Dasgupta, lead economist for India at the World Bank in New Delhi. Democracy will probably end up taking it in the right direction.
Rajeev Chandrasekhar, a member of the unelected upper house of Parliament who runs an investment company called Jupiter, argued that deeper reforms would get on the agenda only if economic prospects deteriorated sharply. India, he noted, began opening up its economy in 1991, only when the governments foreign exchange was nearly depleted. India responds best in times of crisis, he said.
As Mr. Gandhi drove through the countryside on his recent campaign tour, his well-wishers showered his car with rose petals. The scorching air grew fragrant for a moment. He and Sonia, the Italian-born party chief, waved from inside.
We feel that we need to hold the hands of the poor people, Mr. Gandhi said at a rally earlier in the week. At another, he chided the opposition for focusing on the stock market.
Across rural India, acts of god and government have saved the people from ruin in recent years. The rains have been good. The fields heave with wheat ready for harvest. The economic crisis is not felt in these parts, as it is in Indias globalized cities, and this is where most of the votes are.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/world/asia/15india.html?_r=1&hpw
