Japan has issued RFIs to foreign companies for its next ASF. It has to be domestically produced including engines, but that’s a pretty minor issue considering MHI is a pretty top notch domestic partner. Anyways, Lockheed is submitting an aircraft that basically pulls from both the F-22 and F-35 and is according to some, “superior to both.”
Sounds like a long shot, but given its Japan and not the US, what do you think the odds are of it actually doing that? I don’t know of any major procurement failures in Japan besides stuff being expensive to develop domestically, but I never looked hard either. They have reasonable to good capabilities in every category I can think of with the stuff they made or licensed/modified.
There’s also the prescience that Lockheed and MHI have already done this once before for the most part; they took the F-16, made a solid handful of notable changes, and built it in Japan as the F-2. It was expensive for what it was, but a good airplane afaik.
It also requires the current admin to allow a bunch of tech transfer to them on high end stuff, but seeing Trumps stance on China the odds on that seem pretty good.
They also contacting Boeing and BAE but I highly doubt a stealthy Hornet or Typhoon will get far, unless they submit something new.
MHI and Japan are getting a lot of experience really from the ATD-X (X-2 Shinshin) program. I think that Lockheed will have this one locked too. Given that JASDF always wanted the F-22 (and couldn't have it), as well as the fact that Japan acquired and will continue acquiring the F-35 platform, I think that the F-3 program is supposed to replace the F-15J. And that is a pretty tall order, considering.
I think they can do it, but it won't be cheap or fast.