MarkTheTruth
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While the Government is confronted with host of emergent problems relating to restive Balochistan, suicide bombing, political tug-of-war, it has not put Pakistans fault lines in the backburners - economic development, abject poverty, water concerns, urbanization, environmental hazards. In fact, demographists and economists have established a causal relationship between over-population and scarcity of resources like water, poverty, environmental pollutions, etc. Over-population is generally termed as "causes de jour". The unabated population growth is causing a catastrophic strain on surging economy of Pakistan. No one can deny that achieving desirable rates of population growth could be an important factor in bringing sustainability of resources and averting energy problems. Pakistan is confronted with a horrendous problem of over population. As estimated in 2009 by Wikipedia, Pakistan with 180,800,000 people living on its soil is the sixth most populous country on the globe and fourth in Asia. When Pakistan became independent in 1947 its population was estimated at 32 million. Sixty-three years later it has increased 5.6 times to 180 million. This implies an average annual rate of growth of 2.77 per cent, one of the highest in the world. Population of Pakistan would touch the figure of 300 million in the year 2050 if not controlled properly and would move the country towards the worst-ever crises in near future. This has major implications for availability and sustainability of resources needed for Pakistani people to survive. Vision-2030 launched by Pakistan in August 2007 envisaged an increase in the size of the economy from $141 billion currently to $1 trillion, raising per-capita income from the current $925 to $4,000, complete elimination of poverty, reduction of population growth rate from 1.9 per cent to 1 per cent, and finally raising the literacy rate to 100 per cent till 2030. There is, therefore, a need to gear macroeconomic policies towards consolidating the nascent recovery while at the same time laying the foundations of sustainable growth.
The uncontrollable population growth exerts pervasive pressure on the countrys economy. The experts in Pakistan say that with increase in population, the allied civic amenities do not increase proportionately, thus an imbalance between population and resources is created. It is, therefore, rational to control the burgeoning population so that the benefits of economic development begin to expand to the lower classes - where they are most required. If population growth spirals out of control, it poses severe challenges of unemployment, education, health, housing, urbanization and food security. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), nearly half of Pakistans 180 million people are at risk of going short of food due to a recent surge in world food prices. The WFP survey covering the year 2010 showed the number of people deemed food insecure had risen to 77 million from 60 million (28 per cent) in the previous year. The WFP estimates that anyone consuming less than 2,350 calories per day is below the food security line. The price of wheat flour in this February is between Rs 35-40 per kg in Pakistan, compared with Rs 15 per kg three years ago. The present sugar crisis reflects governance issues (hoarding) in the domestic supply chain. The rupee has fallen to a record low against the dollar at Rs 83.12. The growth rate is merely 3.5-4 per cent. As on 31 December, 2008, the external debt stands $ 43.23 billion, foreign exchange reserves at $ 9.104 billion and GDP (per capita income) at $2,600. The frequent increase in the electricity and gas tariffs has exerted an upward pressure on general price level. While wanting to alleviate the hardship of the poor, the Government will face some painful economic choices.
According to the report issued by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), economy is facing problems on internal as well as external front. Internal structural problems persist in the form of power shortages, and law and order situation. While external situation is not optimistic as global economies recovery continues to remain weak, not boding well for our exports and availability of external finance. The International Monetary Fund bailed out Pakistan in November 2008 to avert a balance of payments crisis and in July last year increased the loan to $11.3 billion from an initial $7.6 billion. Security concerns stemming from the nation's role in the War on Terror have created great instability and led to a decline in FDI from a height of approximately $8bn to $3.5bn in the last fiscal year. However, Pakistans economy has begun to show some signs of improvement as inflationary pressures have eased and the current account balance has improved significantly. Inflation touched the single digit in October 2009, after a marathon run of double digit inflation. It is estimated that inflation would further drop in 2010, and that growth would pick up to over 5% per annum by 2011.
Population control is one of the critical issues of our time because sprouting population is not merely an economic problem; it is also a big social problem. Parents who have too many children cannot pay attention to the mental, physical, and spiritual growth of each of their children. As a result, their children feel neglected and fall victim to different evils. There are many causes of this deplorable situation such as illiteracy, poverty and the lack of means of entertainment. However, some of the attempts to address population explosion are: (a) Pro-natalist policies of providing financial incentives to families having fewer children. (b) Delaying marriage and increasing access to means of contraception. (c) At the societal level, provision of honest, open and comprehensive sex education classes in schools. (d) Through fatwas, decrees and edicts the general masses be informed that birth control is not a sin against Allah.
Coming on the strategy of controlling over-population, Pakistan has to learn from the strategy of other successful countries, like China, Bangladesh and Egypt. China brought down the country's rapid population growth by encouraging one-child family and providing the family with free education until the age of 18. Bangladesh recorded impressive gains in slowing population growth by adopting the slogan chhoto paribar, sukhi paribar (small family, happy family). The religious clerics in Bangladesh, would inform people about the significance of family planning in their sermons, distributed contraceptives and literature to spread awareness about the importance of family planning and safe sex. Egypt controlled its burgeoning population through the fatwas and edicts issued from various centres of Islamic learning endorsing family planning. Egypt has registered a swift decline in their population growth rates. We have to overcome these problems, and the only way out is that a moderate population guarantees for our national development.
In order to make the population programme to be effective, Pakistan should adopt a wholesome policy on it, i.e. on the one hand, the ulemas play a motivating role and change the social attitudes of the people to gender equality and family size, on the other side, the Government will have to improve the contraceptive delivery services in the country. Fortunately the link between poverty and the high population growth rate is now being recognized which obliterates the benefits of social and economic development. In reality all these aspects are interlinked, therefore, social sectors should be addressed simultaneously with a vigorous family planning campaign. It is fortunate that 42 million youth of Pakistans population (a positive sign for economic progress and prosperity) are eager to put the country on the fast track of development. Their potentials are second to none in the world.
Demographic Overtures
The uncontrollable population growth exerts pervasive pressure on the countrys economy. The experts in Pakistan say that with increase in population, the allied civic amenities do not increase proportionately, thus an imbalance between population and resources is created. It is, therefore, rational to control the burgeoning population so that the benefits of economic development begin to expand to the lower classes - where they are most required. If population growth spirals out of control, it poses severe challenges of unemployment, education, health, housing, urbanization and food security. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), nearly half of Pakistans 180 million people are at risk of going short of food due to a recent surge in world food prices. The WFP survey covering the year 2010 showed the number of people deemed food insecure had risen to 77 million from 60 million (28 per cent) in the previous year. The WFP estimates that anyone consuming less than 2,350 calories per day is below the food security line. The price of wheat flour in this February is between Rs 35-40 per kg in Pakistan, compared with Rs 15 per kg three years ago. The present sugar crisis reflects governance issues (hoarding) in the domestic supply chain. The rupee has fallen to a record low against the dollar at Rs 83.12. The growth rate is merely 3.5-4 per cent. As on 31 December, 2008, the external debt stands $ 43.23 billion, foreign exchange reserves at $ 9.104 billion and GDP (per capita income) at $2,600. The frequent increase in the electricity and gas tariffs has exerted an upward pressure on general price level. While wanting to alleviate the hardship of the poor, the Government will face some painful economic choices.
According to the report issued by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), economy is facing problems on internal as well as external front. Internal structural problems persist in the form of power shortages, and law and order situation. While external situation is not optimistic as global economies recovery continues to remain weak, not boding well for our exports and availability of external finance. The International Monetary Fund bailed out Pakistan in November 2008 to avert a balance of payments crisis and in July last year increased the loan to $11.3 billion from an initial $7.6 billion. Security concerns stemming from the nation's role in the War on Terror have created great instability and led to a decline in FDI from a height of approximately $8bn to $3.5bn in the last fiscal year. However, Pakistans economy has begun to show some signs of improvement as inflationary pressures have eased and the current account balance has improved significantly. Inflation touched the single digit in October 2009, after a marathon run of double digit inflation. It is estimated that inflation would further drop in 2010, and that growth would pick up to over 5% per annum by 2011.
Population control is one of the critical issues of our time because sprouting population is not merely an economic problem; it is also a big social problem. Parents who have too many children cannot pay attention to the mental, physical, and spiritual growth of each of their children. As a result, their children feel neglected and fall victim to different evils. There are many causes of this deplorable situation such as illiteracy, poverty and the lack of means of entertainment. However, some of the attempts to address population explosion are: (a) Pro-natalist policies of providing financial incentives to families having fewer children. (b) Delaying marriage and increasing access to means of contraception. (c) At the societal level, provision of honest, open and comprehensive sex education classes in schools. (d) Through fatwas, decrees and edicts the general masses be informed that birth control is not a sin against Allah.
Coming on the strategy of controlling over-population, Pakistan has to learn from the strategy of other successful countries, like China, Bangladesh and Egypt. China brought down the country's rapid population growth by encouraging one-child family and providing the family with free education until the age of 18. Bangladesh recorded impressive gains in slowing population growth by adopting the slogan chhoto paribar, sukhi paribar (small family, happy family). The religious clerics in Bangladesh, would inform people about the significance of family planning in their sermons, distributed contraceptives and literature to spread awareness about the importance of family planning and safe sex. Egypt controlled its burgeoning population through the fatwas and edicts issued from various centres of Islamic learning endorsing family planning. Egypt has registered a swift decline in their population growth rates. We have to overcome these problems, and the only way out is that a moderate population guarantees for our national development.
In order to make the population programme to be effective, Pakistan should adopt a wholesome policy on it, i.e. on the one hand, the ulemas play a motivating role and change the social attitudes of the people to gender equality and family size, on the other side, the Government will have to improve the contraceptive delivery services in the country. Fortunately the link between poverty and the high population growth rate is now being recognized which obliterates the benefits of social and economic development. In reality all these aspects are interlinked, therefore, social sectors should be addressed simultaneously with a vigorous family planning campaign. It is fortunate that 42 million youth of Pakistans population (a positive sign for economic progress and prosperity) are eager to put the country on the fast track of development. Their potentials are second to none in the world.
Demographic Overtures
