Convergence of the US and Indian Strategic Interests vis-a-vis China

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

A good read from the Indian Defense Review:

South East Asia: United States & India Convergent Strategic Interests 2018
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlights/south-east-asia-united-states-india-convergent-strategic-interests-2018/
02 Feb , 2018

The main point is to deny China room for maneuvering in the maritime field, and the US and the Indians are on the same page! The principal objectives are:
(1) Checkmate China’s hegemonic designs over South East Asia
(2) Checkmate China’s unchallenged maritime sway over the South China Sea
(3) Pre-empt China from establishing control over the strategic maritime chokepoints (the Malacca Straits, Lombok Straits and Soya Straits)

Now, the trillion Yuan question is - who'll bell the cat????? As for Pak, her strategic intersects are in turn converging with those of China (Newton's 3rd law). No doubt CPEC carries an immense strategic importance when all the chips of the puzzle are put together. Interesting times ahead....

 

[BHarwana]

Once I heard some one saying China needs Pakistan to be strong than any country for it's own safety and China will do any thing to make Pakistan strong.

 

[randomradio]

The idea is to restrict China's naval capabilities so they can't threaten the SLOCs of other countries in the region. Also, make it very hard for China to operate in other world oceans.

Now, the trillion Yuan question is - who'll bell the cat?????

There's no cat to bell. It's more of a standoff or a tug of war.

Put enough combined assets in the SCS that PLAN will end up spending a lot more resources in just trying to control the SCS. If the US, India, Japan, Australia quad manage to operate significant number of assets in the SCS, China will be too overwhelmed to do much in the other parts of the world.

 

[BHarwana]

There's no cat to bell. It's more of a standoff or a tug of war.

Put enough combined assets in the SCS that PLAN will end up spending a lot more resources in just trying to control the SCS. If the US, India, Japan, Australia quad manage to operate significant number of assets in the SCS, China will be too overwhelmed to do much in the other parts of the world.

Your words have a valid point but question is that using far fetched nations in SCS that are not directly connected to the area will be a mistake? like Indian is not the very premises of SCS and Australia is also a little more to south? wouldn't Vietnam be a better option for SCS? This means USA need India more for Indian ocean that SCS. Because Arab sates cannot challenge Pakistani and Chinese activity in Indian ocean and Indian is the only country willing to do so.

 

[kasper95]

Your words have a valid point but question is that using far fetched nations in SCS that are not directly connected to the area will be a mistake? like Indian is not the very premises of SCS and Australia is also a little more to south? wouldn't Vietnam be a better option for SCS? This means USA need India more for Indian ocean that SCS. Because Arab sates cannot challenge Pakistani and Chinese activity in Indian ocean and Indian is the only country willing to do so.

Just curious ,how ships and subs do you think China needs to deploy in Indian ocean to be a credible threat

 

[BHarwana]

Just curious ,how ships and subs do you think China needs to deploy in Indian ocean to be a credible threat

I don't know but they have a very large quantity of subs more than any and they are still mass producing those diesel electric subs so that is not a problem for them China has a military industry infrastructure better than any country in the world.

 

[cocomo]

If the US, India, Japan, Australia quad manage to operate significant number of assets in the SCS

Any such war mongering move by these countries against China won't go un-noticed by countries like Russia.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

I don't know but they have a very large quantity of subs more than any and they are still mass producing those diesel electric subs so that is not a problem for them China has a military industry infrastructure better than any country in the world.

And, cost effective!!! No Champagne and Caviares, no expensive partner to maintain etc...

The idea is to restrict China's naval capabilities so they can't threaten the SLOCs of other countries in the region. Also, make it very hard for China to operate in other world oceans.



There's no cat to bell. It's more of a standoff or a tug of war.

Put enough combined assets in the SCS that PLAN will end up spending a lot more resources in just trying to control the SCS. If the US, India, Japan, Australia quad manage to operate significant number of assets in the SCS, China will be too overwhelmed to do much in the other parts of the world.

With a humungous debt burden, which is increasing at an exponential rate, to bear how much more the USA can afford?? Trump is already asking for the allies to chip in!!! China might as well put them under tremendous cost constraint....

 

[BHarwana]

And, cost effective!!! No Champagne and Caviares, no expensive partner to maintain etc...

China is producing military equipment domestically but india is buying and buying from the suppliers that are expensive. India cannot buy from China where similar equipment is cheap so they cannot compete with Chinese numbers.

 

[randomradio]

Your words have a valid point but question is that using far fetched nations in SCS that are not directly connected to the area will be a mistake? like Indian is not the very premises of SCS and Australia is also a little more to south? wouldn't Vietnam be a better option for SCS? This means USA need India more for Indian ocean that SCS. Because Arab sates cannot challenge Pakistani and Chinese activity in Indian ocean and Indian is the only country willing to do so.

The US want India to fully control the IOR because they can't do it themselves, they will be busy in the Pacific, Arctic and North Atlantic. LEMOA was signed to facilitate Indian access to US bases in the Pacific for that purpose. But the US also want an alliance system in the SCS.

What makes India much more important than all other countries is, if India gains control over the IOR, then the IN can also operate in the Pacific. And at the same time, IN will be able to patrol with a task force with the same level of presence and firepower as any US CBG. This will reduce the burden on the USN considerably.

While India has not yet agreed to the "alliance" system with joint patrols and such, the idea is to facilitate some form of cooperation on that front. It's most definitely headed towards that direction, but we are waiting to see when that will happen. The lack of India's NSG seat is causing a lot of delays in cooperation.

PLAN is still quite weak and the USN is good enough to control the Pacific and the SCS for now. So all this will play out 10+ years later.

However India wants an alliance type system with other ASEAN countries, particularly Vietnam. To that effect, the Vietnamese allow Indian warships to dock and resupply at their ports and bases. Since India had supported North Vietnam during the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese-Indian relations have always been good. Vietnam is to India what Pakistan is to China. So, if the Chinese escalate their military presence through Pakistan, India will do the same through Vietnam.

Whenever India gets to exporting offensive weapons systems, Vietnam will likely be first on the list.

https://in.reuters.com/article/indi...ietnam-that-offers-eye-on-china-idINKCN0V309W

Any such war mongering move by these countries against China won't go un-noticed by countries like Russia.

Russia and China are not allied. Their current interests converge for now, but it will change in 10-20 years.

With a humungous debt burden, which is increasing at an exponential rate, to bear how much more the USA can afford?? Trump is already asking for the allies to chip in!!! China might as well put them under tremendous cost constraint....

The American debt burden is not that significant. They print dollars and the rest of the world happily consumes their debt.

China is producing military equipment domestically but india is buying and buying from the suppliers that are expensive. India cannot buy from China where similar equipment is cheap so they cannot compete with Chinese numbers.

That's not correct. The IN is highly indigenized. Even the weapons systems that go on the indigenous ships and subs are being indigenized.

 

[BHarwana]

The US want India to fully control the IOR because they can't do it themselves, they will be busy in the Pacific, Arctic and North Atlantic. LEMOA was signed to facilitate Indian access to US bases in the Pacific for that purpose. But the US also want an alliance system in the SCS.

Firstly India cannot gain full control of Indians ocean region because Indian Navy is not that far fetched for now but in future India is concentrating on Navy more than Army as can be seen from Indian defence budget. But at the same time China is developing Naval capability and at much faster pace than India and UAS combined. So by the time India will be in shape to claim any thing in Indian ocean China will already be in a far better shape and then again USA will have to share the burden. Now China is developing Pakistani Navy also and at a faster pace than any other Navy. with providing subs and ships and letting Pakistan focus it's own development partnering with Turkey. But that will be a portion of counter force in this whole big brawl.

What makes India much more important than all other countries is, if India gains control over the IOR, then the IN can also operate in the Pacific. And at the same time, IN will be able to patrol with a task force with the same level of presence and firepower as any US CBG. This will reduce the burden on the USN considerably.

India cannot control the Indian Ocean USA knows that and that's why USA has NATO to help as well but there is a New player in town as well which is Turkey as the Turkish naval and air assets have started to deploy to Qatar already to par with USA and Russian increased presence in Middle east has also started which is hampering NATO and diverting it to remain more engaged in the Mediterranean and black sea so south Asia will still be a big gap for USA and allies. Now it is race against time for Indian ocean and we have to wait and see who dominates.

However India wants an alliance type system with other ASEAN countries, particularly Vietnam. To that effect, the Vietnamese allow Indian warships to dock and resupply at their ports and bases. Since India had supported North Vietnam during the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese-Indian relations have always been good. Vietnam is to India what Pakistan is to China. So, if the Chinese escalate their military presence through Pakistan, India will do the same through Vietnam.

Vietnam is not an issue for china and India help to Vietnam don't matters much but Japaneses and US help to Vietnam matters more but then there is NK to counter Japan and South Korea and keep them engaged in the region.

 

[Thanatos]

The idea is to restrict China's naval capabilities so they can't threaten the SLOCs of other countries in the region. Also, make it very hard for China to operate in other world oceans.



There's no cat to bell. It's more of a standoff or a tug of war.

Put enough combined assets in the SCS that PLAN will end up spending a lot more resources in just trying to control the SCS. If the US, India, Japan, Australia quad manage to operate significant number of assets in the SCS, China will be too overwhelmed to do much in the other parts of the world.

Indian dream. India is a poor country , should spend its resources on human development rather than thinking about Chinese containment. India has no external threat.

 

[war&peace]

China is diversifying its trade options through CPEC, railway link to Europe through Russia, and ship based transport through the north pole that it will be really meaningless for USA to block SCS as Chinese trade would continue through other routes. The more assets USA will place in SCS, the more Chinese will be able to spying on them and prepare directed counters which would result in devastation for US Navy in case of a war.

 

[SorryNotSorry]

It will be battleground Pakistan. Proxy wars are prone to rage with all the tribal controlled areas, and the already difficult Afghan border.
Vested interests of both the US and China, major corruption, a lack of division of power, huge debts and the dangerous mullah outlook of some citizens - are a disastrous combination in my view. Add the mutual India-Pakistan hatred in the mix.
The Pakistani public has a massive responsibility here.
Wake up neighbors.

 

[randomradio]

Firstly India cannot gain full control of Indians ocean region because Indian Navy is not that far fetched for now but in future India is concentrating on Navy more than Army as can be seen from Indian defence budget. But at the same time China is developing Naval capability and at much faster pace than India and UAS combined. So by the time India will be in shape to claim any thing in Indian ocean China will already be in a far better shape and then again USA will have to share the burden. Now China is developing Pakistani Navy also and at a faster pace than any other Navy. with providing subs and ships and letting Pakistan focus it's own development partnering with Turkey. But that will be a portion of counter force in this whole big brawl.

Not exactly. IN will only be half the size of the PLAN in only 2027. Between 2037-47, both navies should be on par.

Those are the timelines we are speaking off.

India cannot control the Indian Ocean USA knows that and that's why USA has NATO to help as well but there is a New player in town as well which is Turkey as the Turkish naval and air assets have started to deploy to Qatar already to par with USA and Russian increased presence in Middle east has also started which is hampering NATO and diverting it to remain more engaged in the Mediterranean and black sea so south Asia will still be a big gap for USA and allies. Now it is race against time for Indian ocean and we have to wait and see who dominates.

In the IOR, India has no direct competitor. All other countries have a contender in their respective areas, like Turkey has to deal with Russia in the Black Sea and the Mediterrenean.

Arctic is contested between the US, Europe and Russia. The Atlantic is the same.
The Pacific is contested between the US, Russia and China.
IOR - Only India. There's no one else.

All major navies can only have a presence in the IOR. But that presence is not significant enough to pose any long term threat. Again, look at the timeframe I am referring to.

Vietnam is not an issue for china and India help to Vietnam don't matters much but Japaneses and US help to Vietnam matters more but then there is NK to counter Japan and South Korea and keep them engaged in the region.

Vietnam is an issue for China. They don't have good relations.

https://www.voanews.com/a/festering...na-vietnam-relations-to-new-low-/4014147.html
“I think also for Vietnam anti-China sentiment is so toxic that if the government were to face a situation in South China Sea and be perceived by the Vietnamese public as not defending Vietnamese sovereignty, they’d be in real trouble,” Thayer said.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphj...low-over-a-new-maritime-dispute/#470b8a52521a

As it stands today, only India supports Vietnam. All other countries are yet to get to the position India is in with respect to Vietnam.