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COMMENT: Fifty blank minutes Shahzad Chaudhry
Indias long-term aim to position herself as a global, major-league player will need the strong moral underpinning of being a stabilising
factor in the region among all its neighbours
Thimphu is the worlds happiness capital. While the rest of the world wrestled with the multi-faceted Human Resource Index (HRI) to determine the prosperity potential and quality of life of the people, the Bhutanese coined an entirely separate datum of reference and determined that, along with material progress and its potential within a society, what actually mattered was the accompanying sense of contentment, happiness and conviviality. That is what the prophets ordained. Now, most of the developed world has taken in this concept of a happiness index and are providing it with scientific underpinnings for universal applicability.
Consider: the Bhutanese only permitted television to invade their lives in 1999 and it was under the pressure of this modern phenomenon of tourism, and to meet the needs of the tourists, that the internet was allowed in 2008. Do not mistake these Bhutanese for some medieval hermits though. In my brief exposure to the Bhutanese during the 15th SAARC summit in 2008 in Colombo, amongst all the leadership that called on Pakistans prime minister, the Bhutanese were the most articulate, well-rounded, but perhaps the most neglected given their small size and insignificant nuisance capacity. International relations, too, are pretty much run on the lines of hierarchical demagoguery. It should matter though that the same insignificant Bhutan had trumped Pakistan that morning in staking a claim to hosting the much sought after $ 300 million South Asia Development Fund under SAARCs aegis. I learnt later from the most reliable source that Pakistans was sadly the most forlorn presence at the retreat that morning, as it had lost out to Bhutan.
But those were early days and the leadership has come a long way from those initial faltering steps. The magic of a happy Thimphu seems to have worked its charms when the prime ministers of India and Pakistan met on the sidelines of the SAARC summit to deliver the startling but pleasant news that the two nations may resume their dialogue process after a 17-month hiatus following the Mumbai attacks.
We know what changed Indias mind on the dialogue process, and it is not only the USs nudging. It seems to have realised, over time, that remaining incommunicado since Mumbai was a failed strategy, as it did not deliver the desired results. India has two other, more dominant, and longer-term objectives. One is its need to remain relevant to the Afghanistan scenario, particularly after the US leaves. Given Pakistans natural advantage and perceived pre-eminence, leverage can come only through working with Pakistan to enable a stable Afghanistan. Two, India is aware of its need to repair its image of a recalcitrant neighbour, unwilling to respond positively to Pakistans overtures for peace and stability. Its long-term aim to position itself as a global, major-league player will need the strong moral underpinning of being a stabilising factor in the region among all its neighbours, hence the change of tenor at Thimphu. If the Indians were looking for a fig leaf to backtrack from their popular stance, the Pakistanis did well to offer one.
While all seems good on the dialogue front, issues have to be gestated cautiously and very slowly such being the nature of things between India and Pakistan. There will remain a few unanswered questions and some carefully crafted steps.
The questions first: was this an impromptu one-on-one between the two prime ministers, or was it deliberately built into the process? Given the element of startling surprise that the Pakistani foreign minister evinced, it seemed more the former. Again, given that nothing out of India ever comes without due process, it may have been a well-deliberated move from the Indians, in which case it must have left the accompanying Pakistani establishment dumbfounded. Or, could it be that given the absolute lack of capacity in the straitjacketed and closeted system of functioning within the establishments on both sides proven repeatedly after a failed history of sustaining dialogue and absolutely no results to show the two political leaders showed some spine to break away from the yokes of the establishments control and did what statesmen do: chart a newer territory and move beyond the logjam? The 10-minute walk on the preceding day seems to have sealed the move as the only way possible to move on. If so, they deserve all our praise and kudos and, more importantly, support in both countries to strengthen their hand against what is surely going to follow an incessant campaign to fail their hand.
What went on between the two when alone for those 50 minutes? For the sake of Prime Minister Gilani, one hopes that it was a known event, and thus had been adequately briefed at the level of the establishment. But was it so? If not, there are going to be some busy hours spent in Islamabad trying to relive what was actually said in there. One, of course, assumes that the Indians had their act together, but if that too was an unplanned event for them, there is likely to be enough for them in that discussion to please their palate back home.
A well-developed conspiracy theory can be made to identify those 50 minutes, but one avoids the temptation. Let the success be savoured for as long as it can be. But there is one of the two likelihoods or a combination that a fly on the wall may have been privy to. I am unable to do what I desire till you help me do it. Success on Indo-Pak will strengthen my hand to bring in the most desired structural changes that we know are essential to tame the non-political forces and to enable a freer hand to deal with all inimical players in our midst. In recompense, when we sign the almost ready agreements on Siachen and Sir Creek, you can be certain to see an immediate follow-up on Afghan transit trade and bilateral trade. We will also take up the Kashmir issue from where we left off under General Musharraf, Gilani may have said. That will mightily please the Indians.
As a parting thought, Musharrafs four-point formula on Kashmir was not a sell-out. It entails the initiation of an evolutionary process which would have negotiated itself through to the doable which would be sustaining and stabilising. Let us give the devil his due.
Now for the carefully crafted steps: bring the entire establishment on board, develop a bi-partisan political consensus, educate and mentor public opinion, retain some spine and stay the course. And, finally, learn from the Bhutanese.
Shahzad Chaudhry is a retired air vice marshal and a former ambassador
Indias long-term aim to position herself as a global, major-league player will need the strong moral underpinning of being a stabilising
factor in the region among all its neighbours
Thimphu is the worlds happiness capital. While the rest of the world wrestled with the multi-faceted Human Resource Index (HRI) to determine the prosperity potential and quality of life of the people, the Bhutanese coined an entirely separate datum of reference and determined that, along with material progress and its potential within a society, what actually mattered was the accompanying sense of contentment, happiness and conviviality. That is what the prophets ordained. Now, most of the developed world has taken in this concept of a happiness index and are providing it with scientific underpinnings for universal applicability.
Consider: the Bhutanese only permitted television to invade their lives in 1999 and it was under the pressure of this modern phenomenon of tourism, and to meet the needs of the tourists, that the internet was allowed in 2008. Do not mistake these Bhutanese for some medieval hermits though. In my brief exposure to the Bhutanese during the 15th SAARC summit in 2008 in Colombo, amongst all the leadership that called on Pakistans prime minister, the Bhutanese were the most articulate, well-rounded, but perhaps the most neglected given their small size and insignificant nuisance capacity. International relations, too, are pretty much run on the lines of hierarchical demagoguery. It should matter though that the same insignificant Bhutan had trumped Pakistan that morning in staking a claim to hosting the much sought after $ 300 million South Asia Development Fund under SAARCs aegis. I learnt later from the most reliable source that Pakistans was sadly the most forlorn presence at the retreat that morning, as it had lost out to Bhutan.
But those were early days and the leadership has come a long way from those initial faltering steps. The magic of a happy Thimphu seems to have worked its charms when the prime ministers of India and Pakistan met on the sidelines of the SAARC summit to deliver the startling but pleasant news that the two nations may resume their dialogue process after a 17-month hiatus following the Mumbai attacks.
We know what changed Indias mind on the dialogue process, and it is not only the USs nudging. It seems to have realised, over time, that remaining incommunicado since Mumbai was a failed strategy, as it did not deliver the desired results. India has two other, more dominant, and longer-term objectives. One is its need to remain relevant to the Afghanistan scenario, particularly after the US leaves. Given Pakistans natural advantage and perceived pre-eminence, leverage can come only through working with Pakistan to enable a stable Afghanistan. Two, India is aware of its need to repair its image of a recalcitrant neighbour, unwilling to respond positively to Pakistans overtures for peace and stability. Its long-term aim to position itself as a global, major-league player will need the strong moral underpinning of being a stabilising factor in the region among all its neighbours, hence the change of tenor at Thimphu. If the Indians were looking for a fig leaf to backtrack from their popular stance, the Pakistanis did well to offer one.
While all seems good on the dialogue front, issues have to be gestated cautiously and very slowly such being the nature of things between India and Pakistan. There will remain a few unanswered questions and some carefully crafted steps.
The questions first: was this an impromptu one-on-one between the two prime ministers, or was it deliberately built into the process? Given the element of startling surprise that the Pakistani foreign minister evinced, it seemed more the former. Again, given that nothing out of India ever comes without due process, it may have been a well-deliberated move from the Indians, in which case it must have left the accompanying Pakistani establishment dumbfounded. Or, could it be that given the absolute lack of capacity in the straitjacketed and closeted system of functioning within the establishments on both sides proven repeatedly after a failed history of sustaining dialogue and absolutely no results to show the two political leaders showed some spine to break away from the yokes of the establishments control and did what statesmen do: chart a newer territory and move beyond the logjam? The 10-minute walk on the preceding day seems to have sealed the move as the only way possible to move on. If so, they deserve all our praise and kudos and, more importantly, support in both countries to strengthen their hand against what is surely going to follow an incessant campaign to fail their hand.
What went on between the two when alone for those 50 minutes? For the sake of Prime Minister Gilani, one hopes that it was a known event, and thus had been adequately briefed at the level of the establishment. But was it so? If not, there are going to be some busy hours spent in Islamabad trying to relive what was actually said in there. One, of course, assumes that the Indians had their act together, but if that too was an unplanned event for them, there is likely to be enough for them in that discussion to please their palate back home.
A well-developed conspiracy theory can be made to identify those 50 minutes, but one avoids the temptation. Let the success be savoured for as long as it can be. But there is one of the two likelihoods or a combination that a fly on the wall may have been privy to. I am unable to do what I desire till you help me do it. Success on Indo-Pak will strengthen my hand to bring in the most desired structural changes that we know are essential to tame the non-political forces and to enable a freer hand to deal with all inimical players in our midst. In recompense, when we sign the almost ready agreements on Siachen and Sir Creek, you can be certain to see an immediate follow-up on Afghan transit trade and bilateral trade. We will also take up the Kashmir issue from where we left off under General Musharraf, Gilani may have said. That will mightily please the Indians.
As a parting thought, Musharrafs four-point formula on Kashmir was not a sell-out. It entails the initiation of an evolutionary process which would have negotiated itself through to the doable which would be sustaining and stabilising. Let us give the devil his due.
Now for the carefully crafted steps: bring the entire establishment on board, develop a bi-partisan political consensus, educate and mentor public opinion, retain some spine and stay the course. And, finally, learn from the Bhutanese.
Shahzad Chaudhry is a retired air vice marshal and a former ambassador
