Coming change in Gulf relationships

[Cheetah786]

The quarrel between the United Kingdom and Iran over the capture by the latter of British seamen has escalated after Tehran asked London to apologise. The two countries differ over where the seamen were at the time of their arrest by the Iranian coast guards. Tehran has presented the captured group on TV saying they had trespassed into Iranian waters. London says the “confession” was extracted.

We thought that Iran would return the group after making it clear to the world that it had done the moral thing, better than the US that is still holding five Iranians arrested from inside Iraq against the wishes of the Iraqi government. Prolonging the crisis would mean escalating the quarrel and that can lead to the opening of hostilities which will surely be joined by the Americans whose fleet has been “exercising” in the Gulf.

The world is fearful and the markets are showing signs of panic. What if Iran or anyone else blocks the Strait of Hormuz which is 34 miles wide but has only a 2-mile wide navigable channel? It will thus obstruct 90 percent of the oil that is exported from the region. Around 16-17 million barrels of crude oil are carried through the narrow channel on oil tankers every day. The gulf produces roughly two-fifths of all globally traded oil. Iran has been talking of blocking the Strait if more stringent UN sanctions are applied against it. It has deployed anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles on islands strategically located near the Strait’s shipping lanes.

Oil prices have started climbing and if the standoff between Iran and the big powers of the UN Security Council is not called off, the world economy could be drastically impacted. Over 75 percent of Japan’s oil passes through the narrow stretch of water. Half of America’s demand for oil — about 10 million barrels a day — is met through imports and the problem is that if the oil prices go up because of the turnoff at the Gulf, the world’s largest economy could well crash.

The US mechanism for keeping oil prices low was located in Saudi Arabia which could increase its output from 5 million barrels a day to 9 million to keep the global market in check. Saudi Arabia regularly helped America in the past, in particular, its two presidents, Carter and Bush Sr., on request. In 2004, however, when Saudi Arabia pushed its additional heavy oil into the market to keep down the prices, it did not work. In recent times, Saudi Arabia has looked like turning away from the “security arrangement” with the US. King Abdullah has said things about America that no king of Saudi Arabia has said in the past.

Is the “twin pillar” (security for oil) of American policy in the Gulf crumbling? Saudi Arabia, it appears, can no longer guarantee low oil prices; the US can no longer guarantee security. The world demand for oil has become so great after the rise of China as the new economic giant that additional production is no longer any use. America’s “neo-cons” went into Iraq without giving much thought to their Arab allies and, after getting bogged down, are a security threat rather than a security guarantor. What is coming next could actually create an explosive situation.

Saudi Arabia doesn’t want an American attack on Iran at any cost. As it sees the situation decline, it is reaching out to Iran on its own. There is a tradition of the GCC states parlaying with Iran pragmatically. The Saudis have reached out to Russia too and are no longer buying their military aircraft from the United States. Saudi Arabia is even worried about the rifts which the American invasion has created in the Arab states through the rise of sectarianism. It doesn’t want Iran as a hegemon but wouldn’t mind giving it its due share in the balance of regional power as long as it ensures economic stability.

Pakistan has always been awkwardly placed between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but now it is awkwardly placed between the United States and Iran. It would be in the best interest of Islamabad to help Saudi Arabia (along with its GCC partners) to reach an understanding with Iran. It has its expatriate workers in the Gulf region and hopes to get its gas from Iran as a matter of economic survival. The sectarian situation in Pakistan is entirely an offshoot of the Saudi-Iranian contest that began after 1979 and has so far damaged Pakistan’s internal security beyond all measure. Therefore Islamabad must act wisely in the new situation created in the Gulf and support all efforts at reconciliation among the states that surround it. *

 

[KashifAsrar]

Quite a reasonable commentry this is. The tri-angle of Saudi, USA and Iran coupled with the energy needs is dictating a lot in international politics these days. Saudi do not want another Iraq in Iran. They have a large Shia population which is on the verge of revolt, actually. They can not risk it. If it go that way then the world's second largest exporter of Oil might face a total collapse and this might prove suicidal for the economic giant, the GREAT SATAN 'UNCLE'. It is quite a spiral of destruction actually.
Kashif