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The Wakhan Corridor, a narrow strip if land that extends to the border of China.
China's new leaders-in-waiting face a host of foreign-policy difficulties, from territorial disputes in the South China Sea to increased tensions with Japan. Deepening rivalry with the United States is shaping these conflicts, with Washington strengthening its strategic pivot to the Asia-Pacific.
At this time, Beijing is examining avenues for extending China's influence into new regions. Afghanistan, with its vast untapped mineral resources, pivotal strategic position, looming security vacuum, and a small border with the People's Republic of China, is an ideal location for Beijing to seek greater strategic depth and economic ascendancy.
Just as Chinese companies have won the most lucrative oil contracts in Iraq, Beijing may reap the massive potential for economic benefit in Afghanistan without deploying a single solider. This pattern exemplifies the divergent strategies of the world's two most powerful nations. Recent history may repeat itself in the Hindu Kush. China's economic focus pays dividend, while America's overly militaristic strategy is incredibly costly and largely ineffective.
Before the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 18th National Congress, the vice president of Afghanistan, Mohammad Karim, had this to say about China's leadership transition: "I think definitely, there will be changes in the top leadership of China after the upcoming event, but those changes will not affect the friendship between Afghanistan and China; rather, it will further enhance the friendly ties between two countries." [1] This expectation for improved ties is strongly rooted in important recent developments.
In September, Zhou Yongkang, China's head of internal security who just stepped down last week, made a surprise trip to Kabul. This was the first time a senior Chinese official had visited Afghanistan since 1966. Zhou met with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and the two leaders signed several political and economic cooperation deals. Most surprising was a pledge for China to help "train, fund and equip" the Afghan police. Zhou stated, "It is in line with the fundamental interests of the two peoples for China and Afghanistan to strengthen a strategic and cooperative partnership which is also conducive to regional peace, stability and development." [2]
China has much to gain from a strategic investment in Afghanistan. Influence over Kabul will allow China to project power deep into Central and South Asia at the expense of Indian, American, and Russian influence. Furthermore, Beijing is perpetually fixated on maintaining domestic security and political unity. One of the primary threats to China's internal cohesion is ethnic separatism in Muslim-dominated Xinjiang province. Some of the Uyghur separatists from Xinjiang have links to the Taliban and other Islamist movements. By seeking influence and stability in Afghanistan, Beijing is acting in its own security interest, both in the international and the domestic spheres.
China's interests in Afghanistan extend far beyond matters of security. As is always the case with China's foreign-policy objectives, Beijing's deepening involvement in Afghanistan is motivated in large part by economic factors. China's booming cities need massive imports of copper, iron, oil, and coal in order to sustain their breakneck growth. A report from the US Pentagon estimated that Afghanistan has over one trillion dollars in potential mineral resources. Resource-hungry China, with her financial and technological capabilities for massive infrastructure investments, is in prime position to tap into Afghanistan's mineral wealth.
In 2007, the state-owned China Metallurgical Group Corporation secured a 30-year lease on MesAnyak in Afghanistan's Logar province. Chinese surveyors expect to extract over $100 billion worth of copper from the site. Work on the mine has been delayed by security concerns, and the fact that the copper lies below an ancient Silk Road city. Archeologists are calling for the mining project to be postponed in order to allow a proper excavation, but it seems unlikely that China Metallurgical Group Corporation will stomach a $3.5 billion loss on their initial investment to lease the site. The Afghan government may also be loath to forfeit their projected $300 million in annual revenue from the mine.
Chinese companies have also started pumping oil from Afghan deposits. Afghanistan's first commercial oil production site has been established in northern Afghanistan with the help of China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC). Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested in the project, which is expected to extract 1.5 million barrels of oil annually beginning next year. [3] CNPC is now working on building a refinery, which could allow Afghanistan to become more energy self-sufficient. Both CNPC and the Afghan government stand to make billions of dollars from the 25-year contract.
Beyond the obvious gains for the Chinese side, Afghanistan's government itself also has much to gain from a stronger relationship with Beijing. First, such a move allows Afghan leaders to have more independence from the United States. President Karzai can now play Beijing, Washington, and New Delhi against each other for his own political benefit. Secondly, Chinese investments will provide much-needed funds, as the economic and security aid from Washington and Europe beings to dry up.
America crusades, Beijing trades
The strengthening of the Sino-Afghan relationship points to the emergence of a new historic pattern. China has benefited from both of the major conflicts of what was once called "The Global War on Terror". Chinese firms reap lucrative contracts in the wake of American military quagmires.
Chinese companies have received the largest oil concessions from the Iraqi government. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects Iraq's oil production to more than double over the next decade. By 2035, the IEA predicts, more than 90% of Middle Eastern oil will be shipped to Asia. As IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven summarized, "Iraq is a game-changer in conventional oil and gas. Chinese investment money will flow into the region, and oil will flow back to Beijing." [4]
Why are Chinese state-owned companies prospering in the wake of American-led military campaigns? For starters, Chinese coffers are full of hard currency, and China's growing economy is heavily dependent on the natural resources that are found in abundance in both Iraq and Afghanistan. China's state-owned enterprises have the money and the motivation to make major bids in war-ravaged countries lacking essential infrastructure. Of course, an important reason why China has so much money to spare is because Beijing has wisely avoided costly military entanglements.
Brute economic dynamics may only be part of the explanation for China's blossoming economic success in Iraq and Afghanistan. Political factors cannot be ignored. Many of the peoples of both Iraq and Afghanistan have a significant degree of resentment against the United States. Sustained resistance to America's overwhelming military superiority could not be perpetuated without a significant measure of local support.
Even the US-backed governments of Iraq and Afghanistan have troubled relations with Washington. Although Hamid Karzai owes his position as leader of Afghanistan to American military muscle, his relationship with his patrons is notoriously strained. Furthermore, Iraqi and Afghan leaders may (understandably) fear that economic projects of Western firms are more likely to be subject to revenge-driven attack and sabotage than are Chinese ventures.
These dynamics point to a profound change in the global system. The era of old-fashioned imperialism is over. Even the mightiest nations on Earth cannot translate military dominance into economic ascendancy over a foreign land. China's leadership has observed and benefited from this trend. In recent decades, Beijing has avoided adventurism and focused instead on domestic infrastructure and foreign trade. Washington, on the other hand, remains fixated on costly weaponry and expensive foreign deployments.
The results of these different strategies should be obvious. China's non-political and self-interested economic investments pay dividends in increasingly scarce natural resources. Meanwhile, America's massive hemorrhaging of blood and treasure has not helped America acquire a single barrel of oil.
As the balance of power shifts from West to East, Beijing may be tempted to militarize its foreign policy. Afghanistan has suffered from three decades of civil war and has huge deposits of natural resources. The political developments in Afghanistan can have profound effects on China's northwestern frontier.
Finally, the violence in Afghanistan threatens the investments of Chinese state-owned companies. China' mine at MesAnyak has already come under indirect rocket fire from Afghan insurgents. Someday Afghanistan may prove an enticing arena for China to prove her martial prowess. As Beijing's new leaders deepen their involvement in troubled Afghanistan, they would be wise to learn from the misadventures of past superpowers, and remember the benefits of trade over war.
Asia Times Online :: China searches for an Afghan 'pivot'
China's new leaders-in-waiting face a host of foreign-policy difficulties, from territorial disputes in the South China Sea to increased tensions with Japan. Deepening rivalry with the United States is shaping these conflicts, with Washington strengthening its strategic pivot to the Asia-Pacific.
At this time, Beijing is examining avenues for extending China's influence into new regions. Afghanistan, with its vast untapped mineral resources, pivotal strategic position, looming security vacuum, and a small border with the People's Republic of China, is an ideal location for Beijing to seek greater strategic depth and economic ascendancy.
Just as Chinese companies have won the most lucrative oil contracts in Iraq, Beijing may reap the massive potential for economic benefit in Afghanistan without deploying a single solider. This pattern exemplifies the divergent strategies of the world's two most powerful nations. Recent history may repeat itself in the Hindu Kush. China's economic focus pays dividend, while America's overly militaristic strategy is incredibly costly and largely ineffective.
Before the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 18th National Congress, the vice president of Afghanistan, Mohammad Karim, had this to say about China's leadership transition: "I think definitely, there will be changes in the top leadership of China after the upcoming event, but those changes will not affect the friendship between Afghanistan and China; rather, it will further enhance the friendly ties between two countries." [1] This expectation for improved ties is strongly rooted in important recent developments.
In September, Zhou Yongkang, China's head of internal security who just stepped down last week, made a surprise trip to Kabul. This was the first time a senior Chinese official had visited Afghanistan since 1966. Zhou met with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and the two leaders signed several political and economic cooperation deals. Most surprising was a pledge for China to help "train, fund and equip" the Afghan police. Zhou stated, "It is in line with the fundamental interests of the two peoples for China and Afghanistan to strengthen a strategic and cooperative partnership which is also conducive to regional peace, stability and development." [2]
China has much to gain from a strategic investment in Afghanistan. Influence over Kabul will allow China to project power deep into Central and South Asia at the expense of Indian, American, and Russian influence. Furthermore, Beijing is perpetually fixated on maintaining domestic security and political unity. One of the primary threats to China's internal cohesion is ethnic separatism in Muslim-dominated Xinjiang province. Some of the Uyghur separatists from Xinjiang have links to the Taliban and other Islamist movements. By seeking influence and stability in Afghanistan, Beijing is acting in its own security interest, both in the international and the domestic spheres.
China's interests in Afghanistan extend far beyond matters of security. As is always the case with China's foreign-policy objectives, Beijing's deepening involvement in Afghanistan is motivated in large part by economic factors. China's booming cities need massive imports of copper, iron, oil, and coal in order to sustain their breakneck growth. A report from the US Pentagon estimated that Afghanistan has over one trillion dollars in potential mineral resources. Resource-hungry China, with her financial and technological capabilities for massive infrastructure investments, is in prime position to tap into Afghanistan's mineral wealth.
In 2007, the state-owned China Metallurgical Group Corporation secured a 30-year lease on MesAnyak in Afghanistan's Logar province. Chinese surveyors expect to extract over $100 billion worth of copper from the site. Work on the mine has been delayed by security concerns, and the fact that the copper lies below an ancient Silk Road city. Archeologists are calling for the mining project to be postponed in order to allow a proper excavation, but it seems unlikely that China Metallurgical Group Corporation will stomach a $3.5 billion loss on their initial investment to lease the site. The Afghan government may also be loath to forfeit their projected $300 million in annual revenue from the mine.
Chinese companies have also started pumping oil from Afghan deposits. Afghanistan's first commercial oil production site has been established in northern Afghanistan with the help of China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC). Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested in the project, which is expected to extract 1.5 million barrels of oil annually beginning next year. [3] CNPC is now working on building a refinery, which could allow Afghanistan to become more energy self-sufficient. Both CNPC and the Afghan government stand to make billions of dollars from the 25-year contract.
Beyond the obvious gains for the Chinese side, Afghanistan's government itself also has much to gain from a stronger relationship with Beijing. First, such a move allows Afghan leaders to have more independence from the United States. President Karzai can now play Beijing, Washington, and New Delhi against each other for his own political benefit. Secondly, Chinese investments will provide much-needed funds, as the economic and security aid from Washington and Europe beings to dry up.
America crusades, Beijing trades
The strengthening of the Sino-Afghan relationship points to the emergence of a new historic pattern. China has benefited from both of the major conflicts of what was once called "The Global War on Terror". Chinese firms reap lucrative contracts in the wake of American military quagmires.
Chinese companies have received the largest oil concessions from the Iraqi government. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects Iraq's oil production to more than double over the next decade. By 2035, the IEA predicts, more than 90% of Middle Eastern oil will be shipped to Asia. As IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven summarized, "Iraq is a game-changer in conventional oil and gas. Chinese investment money will flow into the region, and oil will flow back to Beijing." [4]
Why are Chinese state-owned companies prospering in the wake of American-led military campaigns? For starters, Chinese coffers are full of hard currency, and China's growing economy is heavily dependent on the natural resources that are found in abundance in both Iraq and Afghanistan. China's state-owned enterprises have the money and the motivation to make major bids in war-ravaged countries lacking essential infrastructure. Of course, an important reason why China has so much money to spare is because Beijing has wisely avoided costly military entanglements.
Brute economic dynamics may only be part of the explanation for China's blossoming economic success in Iraq and Afghanistan. Political factors cannot be ignored. Many of the peoples of both Iraq and Afghanistan have a significant degree of resentment against the United States. Sustained resistance to America's overwhelming military superiority could not be perpetuated without a significant measure of local support.
Even the US-backed governments of Iraq and Afghanistan have troubled relations with Washington. Although Hamid Karzai owes his position as leader of Afghanistan to American military muscle, his relationship with his patrons is notoriously strained. Furthermore, Iraqi and Afghan leaders may (understandably) fear that economic projects of Western firms are more likely to be subject to revenge-driven attack and sabotage than are Chinese ventures.
These dynamics point to a profound change in the global system. The era of old-fashioned imperialism is over. Even the mightiest nations on Earth cannot translate military dominance into economic ascendancy over a foreign land. China's leadership has observed and benefited from this trend. In recent decades, Beijing has avoided adventurism and focused instead on domestic infrastructure and foreign trade. Washington, on the other hand, remains fixated on costly weaponry and expensive foreign deployments.
The results of these different strategies should be obvious. China's non-political and self-interested economic investments pay dividends in increasingly scarce natural resources. Meanwhile, America's massive hemorrhaging of blood and treasure has not helped America acquire a single barrel of oil.
As the balance of power shifts from West to East, Beijing may be tempted to militarize its foreign policy. Afghanistan has suffered from three decades of civil war and has huge deposits of natural resources. The political developments in Afghanistan can have profound effects on China's northwestern frontier.
Finally, the violence in Afghanistan threatens the investments of Chinese state-owned companies. China' mine at MesAnyak has already come under indirect rocket fire from Afghan insurgents. Someday Afghanistan may prove an enticing arena for China to prove her martial prowess. As Beijing's new leaders deepen their involvement in troubled Afghanistan, they would be wise to learn from the misadventures of past superpowers, and remember the benefits of trade over war.
Asia Times Online :: China searches for an Afghan 'pivot'
