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Beijing in a high-level balancing act
By Jing-dong Yuan Dec 24, 2009
BEIJING - With China and the United States marking 30 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations, unprecedented high-level exchanges in 2009 increased cooperation on global and regional issues, from energy conservation to financial stability and helped in the continued search to maintain a stable relationship as the balance of power shifts.
Barack Obama in November became the first US president to make a state visit to China within one year of taking office, after he and President Hu Jintao agreed to build a comprehensive bilateral relationship for the 21st century when the two leaders met for the first time at the Group of 20 (G-20) summit in London in April. They also met on the sidelines of a number of other international meetings.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made her maiden visit toChina in February while her counterpart Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi went to the US in March. Ministerial exchanges filled the diplomatic calendar, bringing enhanced consultation and dialogue on such issues as the global financial crisis, energy, environment, and climate change. The US secretaries of commerce and energy visited China and the first US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue took place in Washington. In October, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission General Xu Caihou visited the United States.
The unprecedented frequency of high-level bilateral consultation generated heightened expectations - and anxiety for some - that China and the United States might join hands in managing many of the global and regional challenges, forming their own Group of 2. Although Beijing dismissed that notion, recognition is growing that China is capable of - and therefore should be - playing an important role in the changing global economy.
Within the bilateral context, growing consultation and exchanges are indicative of China's arrival as a global power as well as the increasing economic interdependence of the two countries. The United States is a major destination for exports and a critical source of investment and technology transfer for China. Annual trade between the two nations is more than $400 billion. China holds $800 billion of the US debt and its $2.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves are dominated predominantly in US dollars.
The current global economic and financial crisis, and the US recession in particular, has hurt China's economy. Chinese exports fell precipitously in 2008 as the US market contracted, forcing millions of migrant workers to lose their jobs. At the same time, the devaluation of the US dollar due to growing deficits, threatens China's holdings of the currency.
While past patterns of US over-consumption and Chinese under-consumption cannot continue, adjustments in both countries in response to the crisis have yet to address fundamental structural problems in their economies. Nonetheless, Beijing and Washington have recognized the critical need for improving information exchanges about macro-economic policies on domestic savings and consumption and budget deficits, while refraining from protectionism to help create non-inflationary growth. In that regard, analysts were able to credit China's $586 billion stimulus package and interest rate cuts with driving a speedy recovery in economic growth to the 7-8 percent rates seen in recent quarters.
As the largest energy consumers and producers of greenhouse gases, together accounting for more than 40% of global emissions, China and the US bear special responsibility on climate change. The two governments have agreed to cooperation and continued dialogue on clean energy and the environment.
A major development in bilateral relations was the visit by General Xu Caihou to the United States in late October. The Maritime Military Consultative Dialogue has also taken place and high-level military exchange visits are scheduled for next year. As one of the most critical and fragile elements of the relationship, military-to-military exchanges serve to build confidence and deepen mutual understanding.
To sum up bilateral relations in 2009, continued momentum in parts was necessitated by the need to address global economic and financial issues and motivated by leaders in the two countries seeking a more stable and cooperative relationship that is indispensable if many global and regional economic and security challenges are to be resolved. At the same time, the strengthening and institutionalization of official bilateral channels contributes to better management of disputes and differences and to the promotion of opportunities for cooperation.
Beyond the bilateral context
Beijing and Washington share many common interests as varied as helping the global economy to recovery and restoring the international financial order, to dealing with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. However, differences on the issues of priority and who should bear what costs continue to prevent full cooperation.
How to resolve the North Korean nuclear weapons program is a case in point. China expressed "resolute opposition'' after North Korea's second nuclear test in May 2009, canceling a visit to Pyongyang by Chen Zhili, vice chairwoman of the National People's Congress (NPC) Standing Committee and planned visits by North Korean officials.
Most intriguingly, not only did the foreign ministry denounce the test, high-ranking officers in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) also voiced strong objections. Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie during talks with his South Korean counterpart warned against further provocation by the North and called on Pyongyang to return to the six-party talks on nuclear disarmament. PLA Deputy Chief of General Staff, Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian, speaking at the IISS 2009 Asian Security Summit in Singapore, reiterated China's opposition to nuclear proliferation and added that the Korean peninsula should move toward denuclearization.
China subsequently supported a UN Security Council resolution imposing new sanctions on North Korea. Beijing agrees with Washington that Pyongyang should return to the Six-Party Talks and that denuclearization remains the goal. However, apart from measures directly related to North Korea's nuclear weapons program, where Beijing supports targeted sanctions, China balks at approaches aimed at isolating Pyongyang or toppling Kim Jong-il's regime. For Beijing, stability on the Korean Peninsula and the importance of having a buffer zone to its north continue to inform its policy.
Indeed, Beijing appears inclined to patient diplomacy in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. If anything, heightened sanctions across the board could seriously destabilize the peninsula, threatening important Chinese security interests. The post-test debates among Chinese analysts notwithstanding, recent months have seen renewed high-level contact, including visits to North Korea by Premier Wen Jiabao and General Liang. China's economic ties and investments there continue to expand. Here the major difference between Beijing and Washington is not so much the ultimate denuclearization goal, but how to get there.
Continued 1 2
Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business.
By Jing-dong Yuan Dec 24, 2009
BEIJING - With China and the United States marking 30 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations, unprecedented high-level exchanges in 2009 increased cooperation on global and regional issues, from energy conservation to financial stability and helped in the continued search to maintain a stable relationship as the balance of power shifts.
Barack Obama in November became the first US president to make a state visit to China within one year of taking office, after he and President Hu Jintao agreed to build a comprehensive bilateral relationship for the 21st century when the two leaders met for the first time at the Group of 20 (G-20) summit in London in April. They also met on the sidelines of a number of other international meetings.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made her maiden visit toChina in February while her counterpart Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi went to the US in March. Ministerial exchanges filled the diplomatic calendar, bringing enhanced consultation and dialogue on such issues as the global financial crisis, energy, environment, and climate change. The US secretaries of commerce and energy visited China and the first US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue took place in Washington. In October, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission General Xu Caihou visited the United States.
The unprecedented frequency of high-level bilateral consultation generated heightened expectations - and anxiety for some - that China and the United States might join hands in managing many of the global and regional challenges, forming their own Group of 2. Although Beijing dismissed that notion, recognition is growing that China is capable of - and therefore should be - playing an important role in the changing global economy.
Within the bilateral context, growing consultation and exchanges are indicative of China's arrival as a global power as well as the increasing economic interdependence of the two countries. The United States is a major destination for exports and a critical source of investment and technology transfer for China. Annual trade between the two nations is more than $400 billion. China holds $800 billion of the US debt and its $2.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves are dominated predominantly in US dollars.
The current global economic and financial crisis, and the US recession in particular, has hurt China's economy. Chinese exports fell precipitously in 2008 as the US market contracted, forcing millions of migrant workers to lose their jobs. At the same time, the devaluation of the US dollar due to growing deficits, threatens China's holdings of the currency.
While past patterns of US over-consumption and Chinese under-consumption cannot continue, adjustments in both countries in response to the crisis have yet to address fundamental structural problems in their economies. Nonetheless, Beijing and Washington have recognized the critical need for improving information exchanges about macro-economic policies on domestic savings and consumption and budget deficits, while refraining from protectionism to help create non-inflationary growth. In that regard, analysts were able to credit China's $586 billion stimulus package and interest rate cuts with driving a speedy recovery in economic growth to the 7-8 percent rates seen in recent quarters.
As the largest energy consumers and producers of greenhouse gases, together accounting for more than 40% of global emissions, China and the US bear special responsibility on climate change. The two governments have agreed to cooperation and continued dialogue on clean energy and the environment.
A major development in bilateral relations was the visit by General Xu Caihou to the United States in late October. The Maritime Military Consultative Dialogue has also taken place and high-level military exchange visits are scheduled for next year. As one of the most critical and fragile elements of the relationship, military-to-military exchanges serve to build confidence and deepen mutual understanding.
To sum up bilateral relations in 2009, continued momentum in parts was necessitated by the need to address global economic and financial issues and motivated by leaders in the two countries seeking a more stable and cooperative relationship that is indispensable if many global and regional economic and security challenges are to be resolved. At the same time, the strengthening and institutionalization of official bilateral channels contributes to better management of disputes and differences and to the promotion of opportunities for cooperation.
Beyond the bilateral context
Beijing and Washington share many common interests as varied as helping the global economy to recovery and restoring the international financial order, to dealing with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. However, differences on the issues of priority and who should bear what costs continue to prevent full cooperation.
How to resolve the North Korean nuclear weapons program is a case in point. China expressed "resolute opposition'' after North Korea's second nuclear test in May 2009, canceling a visit to Pyongyang by Chen Zhili, vice chairwoman of the National People's Congress (NPC) Standing Committee and planned visits by North Korean officials.
Most intriguingly, not only did the foreign ministry denounce the test, high-ranking officers in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) also voiced strong objections. Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie during talks with his South Korean counterpart warned against further provocation by the North and called on Pyongyang to return to the six-party talks on nuclear disarmament. PLA Deputy Chief of General Staff, Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian, speaking at the IISS 2009 Asian Security Summit in Singapore, reiterated China's opposition to nuclear proliferation and added that the Korean peninsula should move toward denuclearization.
China subsequently supported a UN Security Council resolution imposing new sanctions on North Korea. Beijing agrees with Washington that Pyongyang should return to the Six-Party Talks and that denuclearization remains the goal. However, apart from measures directly related to North Korea's nuclear weapons program, where Beijing supports targeted sanctions, China balks at approaches aimed at isolating Pyongyang or toppling Kim Jong-il's regime. For Beijing, stability on the Korean Peninsula and the importance of having a buffer zone to its north continue to inform its policy.
Indeed, Beijing appears inclined to patient diplomacy in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. If anything, heightened sanctions across the board could seriously destabilize the peninsula, threatening important Chinese security interests. The post-test debates among Chinese analysts notwithstanding, recent months have seen renewed high-level contact, including visits to North Korea by Premier Wen Jiabao and General Liang. China's economic ties and investments there continue to expand. Here the major difference between Beijing and Washington is not so much the ultimate denuclearization goal, but how to get there.
Continued 1 2
Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business.
