Windjammer
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By Khuram Iqbal
Militancy in Balochistan is no longer the "forgotten conflict" of Pakistan. Long before the US Congressional hearing on Balochistan early this year, the issue had already taken a central role on the national, regional and international political stage. An official apology extended to Baloch people by President Asif Ali Zardari, an ethnic Baloch himself, in February 2008 demonstrated the significance that present political elite attach to the issue.
A number of political, economic and security initiatives launched by the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party government and the military establishment during the last four years, seeking an amicable solution to the complex problem of Pakistan's largest province, have gone unnoticed and unacknowledged. This is the result of the hijacking of public discourse by the left-wing English media in Pakistan. Objectivity has long become a causality of ideological enslavement of public intellectuals in the country.
Baloch insurgents are often portrayed by the Pakistani left as a bulwark against the forces of religious extremism in the province bordering Southern Afghanistan. Calling them secular just because they denounce Taliban and al-Qaeda is scholarly biased and ethically unfair. Apart from separating state from religious institutions, secularism also entails a movement toward modernization. And modernization in the era of globalization and triumph of democracy all around the world cannot be achieved through out-dated Marxist nationalist ideas, which itself has become a religion of its own in the Pakistani context.
In Pakistani media, hardly any analysis is devoted to the dangers of neo-Marxist nationalist ideology upheld by the number of separatist organizations, which categorically reject the idea of open market economy and holds no respect for ethnic diversity. The isolationist narrative being espoused by the separatists in Balochistan portrays the US as an eternal enemy working hand in glove with the Pakistan Army to quell "Baloch resistance".
Iran is seen as an "occupier of West Balochistan" and mega-developmental projects such as Gwadar port are described as an extension of "Chinese Imperialism". Non-Baloch population including Punjabis, Kashmiris and Seraiki-speaking Baloch, who played a vital role in maintaining the minimum levels of modernization in absence of educated Balochs, are demonized by a handful of Baloch militants as a fifth column of Pakistan Army and ruthlessly killed.
This attitude towards non-Baloch population of Balochistan also shows a paradigm shift in the separatists' policies and objectives when put in the context of past insurrections of 1948 and 1970s. Baloch militants rarely resorted to attacks against public targets in recent years - Pakistani military, law enforcement agencies and symbols of central government always remained the targets of choice. The carefully selected targets won the Baloch insurgents international acclaim and legitimacy to their cause, two of the most crucial elements for waging successful guerilla warfare.
But during the latest phase of insurgency the Baloch fighters seem to have diverted from this strategy and appear devoid of policy direction. The insurgent forces in Balochistan are struggling to keep pace with the changing nature of the conflict and as a result are resorting to tactics unheard of during past phases of the insurrection. For example, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has attempted to carry out a few suicide attacks, which were successfully pre-empted and prevented by Pakistani law enforcement agencies. The use of human bombs is something that can jeopardize the whole struggle and makes Baloch militias appear more ruthless and desperate.
As the conflict evolves and conflict-resolution mechanisms are put in place by the government of Pakistan, we observe some other new trends emerging in the militant landscape of Balochistan, which can have dire impacts for the insurgent forces in the longer-run. Baloch separatist outfits are gradually expanding their areas of operation and widening the choices of target.
From ambushes on security forces to attacks on power pylons/gas pipelines, the choice of targets has now widened to public places in and out of Balochistan. A close examination of the targets employed by the militants, operating on the pretext of defending Baloch rights, reveals that these attacks are not a part of systematic campaign for the right of self-determination but intended to create fear and anarchy all across Pakistan.
On April 23, a bomb blast struck Lahore Railway Station, which killed at least two people and injured 40 others including women and children. Similarly, on July 11, a bus carrying the employees of the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) on the main Hub River Road in Saeedabad, Karachi was targeted, with 24 employees injured in this attack. Both attacks were claimed by Lashkar-e-Balochistan, a new addition to the galaxy of terrorist outfits that have emerged in Balochistan during last decade. The group was also found involved in the July 23 bombing outside the Chinese Consulate in Karachi. Though the human loss in this particular case was minimal, Lashkar-e-Balochistan was able to communicate that the highly-secured targets beyond Balochistan are also within their reach.
The shift from a systematic campaign of militancy to indiscriminate violence seems a desperate reaction by militant outfits in Balochistan and their masters operating from the comfort of Switzerland, London and New Delhi. The departure of international forces from Afghanistan in 2014 will serve a major blow to the separatists in Balochistan. The presence of foreign sanctuaries and training facilities is essential for the survival of a guerrilla movement irrespective of its ideological orientation and legitimacy of the cause.
As the present power-structure collapses and Afghanistan plunges into civil war following the disengagement of allied forces, Indian spymasters operating from the consulates and information centers across the Pak-Afghan border will find it hard to ensure a sustained supply of weapons, finances, training and safe-sanctuaries to the militant outfits involved in Balochistan unrest. This development will be a game-changer in favor of Pakistan.
The story of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka is a case in point. The organization rose to the status of the world's most formidable entity with the help of Indian external intelligence agency. As soon as the Indians cut-off their support for the group, Sri Lanka with a comparatively small army launched successful counter-insurgency campaign, defeated the group and re-established the writ of state in the areas previously ruled by the LTTE.
In Sri Lanka, the Research and Analysis Wing of India did not curtail their support for a terrorist outfit out of goodwill for Sri Lankan government and the people. It was the assassination of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in May 1991 by an LTTE suicide bomber and a radicalization of India's own Tamil population, which forced the Indian intelligence apparatus to rethink their policy towards the group. In the case of Balochistan, the separatists will be abandoned in a similar fashion. This will not mark the end of unrest in Balochistan as external support is not the only factor behind insurgency in the province. The political aspects of the Baloch struggle for provincial autonomy and greater control will take priority over the militants' quest for an independent Balochistan.
Asia Times Online :: Baloch insurgency faces uncertain future
Militancy in Balochistan is no longer the "forgotten conflict" of Pakistan. Long before the US Congressional hearing on Balochistan early this year, the issue had already taken a central role on the national, regional and international political stage. An official apology extended to Baloch people by President Asif Ali Zardari, an ethnic Baloch himself, in February 2008 demonstrated the significance that present political elite attach to the issue.
A number of political, economic and security initiatives launched by the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party government and the military establishment during the last four years, seeking an amicable solution to the complex problem of Pakistan's largest province, have gone unnoticed and unacknowledged. This is the result of the hijacking of public discourse by the left-wing English media in Pakistan. Objectivity has long become a causality of ideological enslavement of public intellectuals in the country.
Baloch insurgents are often portrayed by the Pakistani left as a bulwark against the forces of religious extremism in the province bordering Southern Afghanistan. Calling them secular just because they denounce Taliban and al-Qaeda is scholarly biased and ethically unfair. Apart from separating state from religious institutions, secularism also entails a movement toward modernization. And modernization in the era of globalization and triumph of democracy all around the world cannot be achieved through out-dated Marxist nationalist ideas, which itself has become a religion of its own in the Pakistani context.
In Pakistani media, hardly any analysis is devoted to the dangers of neo-Marxist nationalist ideology upheld by the number of separatist organizations, which categorically reject the idea of open market economy and holds no respect for ethnic diversity. The isolationist narrative being espoused by the separatists in Balochistan portrays the US as an eternal enemy working hand in glove with the Pakistan Army to quell "Baloch resistance".
Iran is seen as an "occupier of West Balochistan" and mega-developmental projects such as Gwadar port are described as an extension of "Chinese Imperialism". Non-Baloch population including Punjabis, Kashmiris and Seraiki-speaking Baloch, who played a vital role in maintaining the minimum levels of modernization in absence of educated Balochs, are demonized by a handful of Baloch militants as a fifth column of Pakistan Army and ruthlessly killed.
This attitude towards non-Baloch population of Balochistan also shows a paradigm shift in the separatists' policies and objectives when put in the context of past insurrections of 1948 and 1970s. Baloch militants rarely resorted to attacks against public targets in recent years - Pakistani military, law enforcement agencies and symbols of central government always remained the targets of choice. The carefully selected targets won the Baloch insurgents international acclaim and legitimacy to their cause, two of the most crucial elements for waging successful guerilla warfare.
But during the latest phase of insurgency the Baloch fighters seem to have diverted from this strategy and appear devoid of policy direction. The insurgent forces in Balochistan are struggling to keep pace with the changing nature of the conflict and as a result are resorting to tactics unheard of during past phases of the insurrection. For example, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has attempted to carry out a few suicide attacks, which were successfully pre-empted and prevented by Pakistani law enforcement agencies. The use of human bombs is something that can jeopardize the whole struggle and makes Baloch militias appear more ruthless and desperate.
As the conflict evolves and conflict-resolution mechanisms are put in place by the government of Pakistan, we observe some other new trends emerging in the militant landscape of Balochistan, which can have dire impacts for the insurgent forces in the longer-run. Baloch separatist outfits are gradually expanding their areas of operation and widening the choices of target.
From ambushes on security forces to attacks on power pylons/gas pipelines, the choice of targets has now widened to public places in and out of Balochistan. A close examination of the targets employed by the militants, operating on the pretext of defending Baloch rights, reveals that these attacks are not a part of systematic campaign for the right of self-determination but intended to create fear and anarchy all across Pakistan.
On April 23, a bomb blast struck Lahore Railway Station, which killed at least two people and injured 40 others including women and children. Similarly, on July 11, a bus carrying the employees of the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) on the main Hub River Road in Saeedabad, Karachi was targeted, with 24 employees injured in this attack. Both attacks were claimed by Lashkar-e-Balochistan, a new addition to the galaxy of terrorist outfits that have emerged in Balochistan during last decade. The group was also found involved in the July 23 bombing outside the Chinese Consulate in Karachi. Though the human loss in this particular case was minimal, Lashkar-e-Balochistan was able to communicate that the highly-secured targets beyond Balochistan are also within their reach.
The shift from a systematic campaign of militancy to indiscriminate violence seems a desperate reaction by militant outfits in Balochistan and their masters operating from the comfort of Switzerland, London and New Delhi. The departure of international forces from Afghanistan in 2014 will serve a major blow to the separatists in Balochistan. The presence of foreign sanctuaries and training facilities is essential for the survival of a guerrilla movement irrespective of its ideological orientation and legitimacy of the cause.
As the present power-structure collapses and Afghanistan plunges into civil war following the disengagement of allied forces, Indian spymasters operating from the consulates and information centers across the Pak-Afghan border will find it hard to ensure a sustained supply of weapons, finances, training and safe-sanctuaries to the militant outfits involved in Balochistan unrest. This development will be a game-changer in favor of Pakistan.
The story of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka is a case in point. The organization rose to the status of the world's most formidable entity with the help of Indian external intelligence agency. As soon as the Indians cut-off their support for the group, Sri Lanka with a comparatively small army launched successful counter-insurgency campaign, defeated the group and re-established the writ of state in the areas previously ruled by the LTTE.
In Sri Lanka, the Research and Analysis Wing of India did not curtail their support for a terrorist outfit out of goodwill for Sri Lankan government and the people. It was the assassination of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in May 1991 by an LTTE suicide bomber and a radicalization of India's own Tamil population, which forced the Indian intelligence apparatus to rethink their policy towards the group. In the case of Balochistan, the separatists will be abandoned in a similar fashion. This will not mark the end of unrest in Balochistan as external support is not the only factor behind insurgency in the province. The political aspects of the Baloch struggle for provincial autonomy and greater control will take priority over the militants' quest for an independent Balochistan.
Asia Times Online :: Baloch insurgency faces uncertain future
