T-Faz
RETIRED MOD
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The period from 2011-12 onwards is likely to see India facing its most serious threat in recent memory. As the Americans withdraw from Afghanistan, the region will witness a takeover by a demonic and nihilistic force with few parallels in modern history. Its only comparison can be with Hitler’s Germany, but unlike the Nazis, the jihadi warriors will be able to bank on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal via the Pakistan army. Their potential, therefore, for setting off an apocalyptic conflict in the region and beyond is enormous.
The conquest, or re-conquest, of Afghanistan by the Taliban and al Qaeda is not difficult to foresee. Within months of the US retreat, the Pakistan army, a “major non-NATO ally” of the West in the “war on terror”, will move in on the pretext of maintaining law and order. Then, after waiting for some time to see how the international community is reacting to the changing scene, the “really bad guys”, to quote Hillary Clinton, will begin to flex their muscles, destroying girls’ schools and forcing men to grow beards. By then, even if the US and the world wring their hands in despair, it will be too late to intervene because the nuclear trigger will be in the hands of the Pakistan army and its friends, such as the Haqqanis or Mullah Omar.
There may be some resistance, of course, from the Afghans who remember the earlier depredations of the Islamists. But it will be an unorganised affair, which will not be difficult for the Pakistan army to crush. Therefore, as Afghanistan returns to its pre-9/11 status to provide Islamabad once again with an area of strategic retreat, about which the Pakistan army chief, Ashfaq Kayani, has already boasted, the latter will not be averse to provoking a conflict with India. Unlike 1965 or 1971 or 1999, Pakistan will be on a stronger wicket.
For a start, it will be less reticent about its jihadi links, knowing fully well that even if the Americans rant and rave, they will not return so soon after running away from the battlefield. Even if they threaten to cut off arms supplies, Pakistan may not be too worried because it will have China standing four-square by its side. The Islamic warriors, too, will be full of confidence after having defeated two superpowers — the Soviet Union and the US. China will also be full of beans for it will sense its first real opportunity to bring India to its heels.
Those who believe that Beijing will be wary of lining up with the terrorists against India because of the possibility of the jehadis infiltrating into Xinjiang forget that, as a totalitarian state, China can ruthlessly suppress any sign of unrest without worrying about human rights. Besides, China can expect the Pakistan army’s help in keeping the militants away from Xinjiang. Beijing’s recent praise of Pakistan’s handling of terrorism is worth noting in this context. In any event, the terrorists will initially be too busy targeting India to think of China.
For India, it will be the worst of all worlds with three of its inveterate enemies teaming up. Leaving aside the jihadis — the medieval forces of darkness on a rampage in the modern world — India will face a curious situation where two of its neighbours are countries that cannot be considered normal. China is some kind of a freak which is not easy to classify — an ostensibly communist nation following a 19th century model of capitalism where industrial disasters underline an absence of safety regulations, an insecure giant whose military muscle and economic status offer little protection against the disaffected Tibetan and Muslim minorities, and a superpower whose human rights record makes it an object of derision and contempt. Its all-weather friend, Pakistan, is widely acknowledged to be a failed state, suspended between democracy and dictatorship with the army remaining the only viable entity to have survived the social and political turmoil that has afflicted the country throughout its history. However, its army is not a professional force since it is perhaps the only one in the world which maintains jihadi links for the purpose of using terror as a weapon of war, mainly against India. Not surprisingly, Pakistan is the only country that sets preconditions for battling terrorism — Kashmir in exchange for fighting jihadis although once it is able to grab what it has long wanted, it will forget its promise.
Why India should be the target is easy to explain. It is next door to the terrorist heartland. It has a large Muslim population from which a few disaffected young men and women can be weaned away. But, above all, India is everything that Pakistan and China are not — a multicultural, multilingual, multi-religious nation with an astonishing record of melding its heterogeneity into a vibrant democracy.
As the detective fiction writer, Ian Rankin, has said, “I am very impressed by the fact that India actually works”. And Salman Rushdie has said that India “works because the individual sees his own nature writ large in the nature of the state”. India’s success, therefore, is anathema to Pakistan and China because the very fact of its existence mocks their society and politics, while its emergence as a major regional power turns their dream of reviving Mughal and Middle Kingdom supremacy into dust.
It cannot be denied that the responsibility for turning Pakistan into an “international migraine”, as Madeleine Albright once said, is America’s. Ever since it started showing preference for dictatorships in place of democracy the military began to regard itself as the natural ruler of the country. What is more, as the US boosted the Pakistan army’s arsenal and morale, Washington saw India’s democracy as a “functioning anarchy,” in J.K.Galbraith’s phrase.
Although the US was aware that the arms it supplied to Pakistan ostensibly for fighting the Soviets were used against India, it turned a blind eye to the transgressions. Now, in a replay of the cold war scene, while the US continues to arm it to fight the terrorists, Pervez Musharraf has admitted that the weapons have been modified for use against India. And as the Americans undermined Pakistani democracy from the Fifties onwards, the mullahs grew in strength because, in the absence of a middle class which thrives on the party system in a democracy, the mosque automatically becomes an alternative centre of power to the army because of its organisational structure and blind devotion of the zealots.
This is, of course, the story of America’s relationship with all Muslim dictatorships from Saudi Arabia to Egypt. However, the difference between these two and Pakistan is that the while the former unrelentingly crack down on the terrorists, Pakistan’s nurtures them for use against India.
About the author:
Amulya Ganguli is a Delhi based political commentator
Apocalypse next year
Zaid Hamid has an Indian Brother.
The conquest, or re-conquest, of Afghanistan by the Taliban and al Qaeda is not difficult to foresee. Within months of the US retreat, the Pakistan army, a “major non-NATO ally” of the West in the “war on terror”, will move in on the pretext of maintaining law and order. Then, after waiting for some time to see how the international community is reacting to the changing scene, the “really bad guys”, to quote Hillary Clinton, will begin to flex their muscles, destroying girls’ schools and forcing men to grow beards. By then, even if the US and the world wring their hands in despair, it will be too late to intervene because the nuclear trigger will be in the hands of the Pakistan army and its friends, such as the Haqqanis or Mullah Omar.
There may be some resistance, of course, from the Afghans who remember the earlier depredations of the Islamists. But it will be an unorganised affair, which will not be difficult for the Pakistan army to crush. Therefore, as Afghanistan returns to its pre-9/11 status to provide Islamabad once again with an area of strategic retreat, about which the Pakistan army chief, Ashfaq Kayani, has already boasted, the latter will not be averse to provoking a conflict with India. Unlike 1965 or 1971 or 1999, Pakistan will be on a stronger wicket.
For a start, it will be less reticent about its jihadi links, knowing fully well that even if the Americans rant and rave, they will not return so soon after running away from the battlefield. Even if they threaten to cut off arms supplies, Pakistan may not be too worried because it will have China standing four-square by its side. The Islamic warriors, too, will be full of confidence after having defeated two superpowers — the Soviet Union and the US. China will also be full of beans for it will sense its first real opportunity to bring India to its heels.
Those who believe that Beijing will be wary of lining up with the terrorists against India because of the possibility of the jehadis infiltrating into Xinjiang forget that, as a totalitarian state, China can ruthlessly suppress any sign of unrest without worrying about human rights. Besides, China can expect the Pakistan army’s help in keeping the militants away from Xinjiang. Beijing’s recent praise of Pakistan’s handling of terrorism is worth noting in this context. In any event, the terrorists will initially be too busy targeting India to think of China.
For India, it will be the worst of all worlds with three of its inveterate enemies teaming up. Leaving aside the jihadis — the medieval forces of darkness on a rampage in the modern world — India will face a curious situation where two of its neighbours are countries that cannot be considered normal. China is some kind of a freak which is not easy to classify — an ostensibly communist nation following a 19th century model of capitalism where industrial disasters underline an absence of safety regulations, an insecure giant whose military muscle and economic status offer little protection against the disaffected Tibetan and Muslim minorities, and a superpower whose human rights record makes it an object of derision and contempt. Its all-weather friend, Pakistan, is widely acknowledged to be a failed state, suspended between democracy and dictatorship with the army remaining the only viable entity to have survived the social and political turmoil that has afflicted the country throughout its history. However, its army is not a professional force since it is perhaps the only one in the world which maintains jihadi links for the purpose of using terror as a weapon of war, mainly against India. Not surprisingly, Pakistan is the only country that sets preconditions for battling terrorism — Kashmir in exchange for fighting jihadis although once it is able to grab what it has long wanted, it will forget its promise.
Why India should be the target is easy to explain. It is next door to the terrorist heartland. It has a large Muslim population from which a few disaffected young men and women can be weaned away. But, above all, India is everything that Pakistan and China are not — a multicultural, multilingual, multi-religious nation with an astonishing record of melding its heterogeneity into a vibrant democracy.
As the detective fiction writer, Ian Rankin, has said, “I am very impressed by the fact that India actually works”. And Salman Rushdie has said that India “works because the individual sees his own nature writ large in the nature of the state”. India’s success, therefore, is anathema to Pakistan and China because the very fact of its existence mocks their society and politics, while its emergence as a major regional power turns their dream of reviving Mughal and Middle Kingdom supremacy into dust.
It cannot be denied that the responsibility for turning Pakistan into an “international migraine”, as Madeleine Albright once said, is America’s. Ever since it started showing preference for dictatorships in place of democracy the military began to regard itself as the natural ruler of the country. What is more, as the US boosted the Pakistan army’s arsenal and morale, Washington saw India’s democracy as a “functioning anarchy,” in J.K.Galbraith’s phrase.
Although the US was aware that the arms it supplied to Pakistan ostensibly for fighting the Soviets were used against India, it turned a blind eye to the transgressions. Now, in a replay of the cold war scene, while the US continues to arm it to fight the terrorists, Pervez Musharraf has admitted that the weapons have been modified for use against India. And as the Americans undermined Pakistani democracy from the Fifties onwards, the mullahs grew in strength because, in the absence of a middle class which thrives on the party system in a democracy, the mosque automatically becomes an alternative centre of power to the army because of its organisational structure and blind devotion of the zealots.
This is, of course, the story of America’s relationship with all Muslim dictatorships from Saudi Arabia to Egypt. However, the difference between these two and Pakistan is that the while the former unrelentingly crack down on the terrorists, Pakistan’s nurtures them for use against India.
About the author:
Amulya Ganguli is a Delhi based political commentator
Apocalypse next year
Zaid Hamid has an Indian Brother.
it will be a big step to stop addiction of middle eastern oil.
