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ANALYSIS
Date Posted: 12-Apr-2010
Jane's Defence Weekly
Analysis: Will the Pakistan-US relationship survive?
Ties between Pakistan and the US appear to be growing stronger, but there are still many divisions between the countries. Farhan Bokhari reports
The US's recognition of Pakistan as a vital ally for stabilising Afghanistan has begun to yield growing support from Washington for Islamabad's armed forces. However, concerns continue over the long-term prospects of a relationship that has historically hovered between close proximity and semi-estrangement.
In April US President Barack Obama, during an unannounced visit to Kabul, the Afghan capital, publicly acknowledged the progress made by Pakistan "with respect to the military campaign [in the country]" in a reference to the attacks on suspected Taliban sanctuaries during the past year.
These initially focused on the northern Swat valley, although the campaign has expanded to other parts of the North West Frontier Province along the Afghan border. This is where the US believes that Taliban militants and members of Al-Qaeda maintain their strongholds, from which they launch attacks on Pakistani forces on Pakistan's side of the border and Western troops in Afghanistan.
However, Pakistan's military and air force planners - the two arms mainly involved in the campaign - have noted the extent to which the mobilisation of their forces promises to lay the foundation for a long-term effort to deny space to militants in the border region.
"We have made a significant contribution to the operations against terrorists in this kind of warfare. Our success, in part, has been that collateral damage has been avoided," said Air Chief Marshall Rao Qamar Suleman, Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), in an interview with Jane's in March: a statement that indicates the growing levels of self-confidence among key defence planners.
In April Pakistan's Prime Minister, Yusuf Raza Gilani, army chief General Ashfaq Kayani and other senior civilian and armed forces officials were invited by the PAF to watch bombing missions conducted against simulated militant targets carried out by fighter aircraft including the Sino-Pakistani-manufactured JF-17, French-supplied Mirage and US-supplied F-16 in the remote Thal desert.
Personnel from the army and the PAF also demonstrated helicopter-borne operations supported by PAF fighters targeting mock terrorist sanctuaries. The event, also watched by foreign defence officials based in Islamabad, was meant to illustrate the ability of Pakistan's army and air force to take a long-term role in stabilising the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.
In addition, Pakistan's standing with the US also received a boost in February when Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban military chief in Afghanistan, was arrested in Pakistan in an operation spearheaded by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, the country's premier counter-espionage asset. Additionally, four other Taliban leaders were also arrested in ISI-led raids.
These arrests served to confirm Pakistan's role as a key stabiliser within the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
In response to these developments, a formal US acknowledgement came in Washington, DC, on 24 March, when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, leading a team of senior US officials, met with a Pakistani delegation led by Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. The most notable attendee at the talks was Gen Kayani, who is widely acknowledged among Western officials for having played a key leadership role in planning the campaign of the past year. His presence prompted much interest among Western diplomats, who saw the general's position as central among the members of Pakistan's delegation, as he is responsible for leading the military's ongoing counter-terror campaign.
At the Washington gathering, the US agreed to fast-track military hardware required by the Pakistani forces as well as work towards clearing a backlog of just over USD2 billion in costs incurred by Pakistani forces in carrying out their anti-terror operations. Full details of the equipment to be supplied is yet to be made public.
After the meeting US and Pakistani officials, speaking off the record, suggested that negotiations had begun for the US to consider supplying reconnaissance drones for the border region.
Additionally, Pakistani officials revealed that discussions have also begun for Washington to supply a batch of 14-18 second-hand F-16C/D variants. This will be in addition to 18 new F-16C/Ds already on order.
However, while all this appears to have improved relations between the US administration and the ruling government in Islamabad and helped to overcome some of the mistrust from a year ago, there are still some gaps to be bridged.
The Pakistani government also used the Washington event to formally seek access to US nuclear technology for civilian use, while seeking a larger access for the entry of Pakistani goods into the US market.
On both counts, the US made no firm commitments, leaving many in Pakistan with the impression that engagement with Washington can reap only limited returns for the time being.
The nuclear issue is of interest to many in Pakistan, where power cuts are frequent, while a surge in exports to the US market would help improve employment prospects in a country with a moribund economy.
The nuclear issue is an especially contentious one. Revelations in 2003 that A Q Khan, the founder of Pakistan's nuclear programme, had sold nuclear know-how and technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea focused global attention on Pakistan. These revelations were followed by US demands for direct access for international investigators to interview Khan. It is believed that this access has not yet been granted.
Since 2003 the Pakistani military has taken over the security surrounding the nuclear project, which is reportedly based on between 100 to 120 nuclear bombs. However, Western officials say concerns linked to Pakistan's past record on nuclear proliferation continue to overshadow its search for civil nuclear reactors from the West.
While the US may resist Pakistan's demands on certain issues, Washington is unlikely to be able to keep relations with Islamabad on a tight leash. This is largely in view of the growing number of casualties among US troops stationed in Afghanistan. At least 57 US soldiers were killed in January and February: more than twice the number of casualties in the same period a year ago.
The US is publicly putting on a bold face by promising to continue fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, but its ability to operate over the long term without an alliance with Pakistan is in doubt. The final objective in this engagement appears to be that of the US laying the course for an eventual exit from Afghanistan, leaving Pakistan to fill the security void.
Farhan Bokhari is a JDW Correspondent, based in Islamabad
Date Posted: 12-Apr-2010
Jane's Defence Weekly
Analysis: Will the Pakistan-US relationship survive?
Ties between Pakistan and the US appear to be growing stronger, but there are still many divisions between the countries. Farhan Bokhari reports
The US's recognition of Pakistan as a vital ally for stabilising Afghanistan has begun to yield growing support from Washington for Islamabad's armed forces. However, concerns continue over the long-term prospects of a relationship that has historically hovered between close proximity and semi-estrangement.
In April US President Barack Obama, during an unannounced visit to Kabul, the Afghan capital, publicly acknowledged the progress made by Pakistan "with respect to the military campaign [in the country]" in a reference to the attacks on suspected Taliban sanctuaries during the past year.
These initially focused on the northern Swat valley, although the campaign has expanded to other parts of the North West Frontier Province along the Afghan border. This is where the US believes that Taliban militants and members of Al-Qaeda maintain their strongholds, from which they launch attacks on Pakistani forces on Pakistan's side of the border and Western troops in Afghanistan.
However, Pakistan's military and air force planners - the two arms mainly involved in the campaign - have noted the extent to which the mobilisation of their forces promises to lay the foundation for a long-term effort to deny space to militants in the border region.
"We have made a significant contribution to the operations against terrorists in this kind of warfare. Our success, in part, has been that collateral damage has been avoided," said Air Chief Marshall Rao Qamar Suleman, Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), in an interview with Jane's in March: a statement that indicates the growing levels of self-confidence among key defence planners.
In April Pakistan's Prime Minister, Yusuf Raza Gilani, army chief General Ashfaq Kayani and other senior civilian and armed forces officials were invited by the PAF to watch bombing missions conducted against simulated militant targets carried out by fighter aircraft including the Sino-Pakistani-manufactured JF-17, French-supplied Mirage and US-supplied F-16 in the remote Thal desert.
Personnel from the army and the PAF also demonstrated helicopter-borne operations supported by PAF fighters targeting mock terrorist sanctuaries. The event, also watched by foreign defence officials based in Islamabad, was meant to illustrate the ability of Pakistan's army and air force to take a long-term role in stabilising the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.
In addition, Pakistan's standing with the US also received a boost in February when Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban military chief in Afghanistan, was arrested in Pakistan in an operation spearheaded by the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, the country's premier counter-espionage asset. Additionally, four other Taliban leaders were also arrested in ISI-led raids.
These arrests served to confirm Pakistan's role as a key stabiliser within the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
In response to these developments, a formal US acknowledgement came in Washington, DC, on 24 March, when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, leading a team of senior US officials, met with a Pakistani delegation led by Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi. The most notable attendee at the talks was Gen Kayani, who is widely acknowledged among Western officials for having played a key leadership role in planning the campaign of the past year. His presence prompted much interest among Western diplomats, who saw the general's position as central among the members of Pakistan's delegation, as he is responsible for leading the military's ongoing counter-terror campaign.
At the Washington gathering, the US agreed to fast-track military hardware required by the Pakistani forces as well as work towards clearing a backlog of just over USD2 billion in costs incurred by Pakistani forces in carrying out their anti-terror operations. Full details of the equipment to be supplied is yet to be made public.
After the meeting US and Pakistani officials, speaking off the record, suggested that negotiations had begun for the US to consider supplying reconnaissance drones for the border region.
Additionally, Pakistani officials revealed that discussions have also begun for Washington to supply a batch of 14-18 second-hand F-16C/D variants. This will be in addition to 18 new F-16C/Ds already on order.
However, while all this appears to have improved relations between the US administration and the ruling government in Islamabad and helped to overcome some of the mistrust from a year ago, there are still some gaps to be bridged.
The Pakistani government also used the Washington event to formally seek access to US nuclear technology for civilian use, while seeking a larger access for the entry of Pakistani goods into the US market.
On both counts, the US made no firm commitments, leaving many in Pakistan with the impression that engagement with Washington can reap only limited returns for the time being.
The nuclear issue is of interest to many in Pakistan, where power cuts are frequent, while a surge in exports to the US market would help improve employment prospects in a country with a moribund economy.
The nuclear issue is an especially contentious one. Revelations in 2003 that A Q Khan, the founder of Pakistan's nuclear programme, had sold nuclear know-how and technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea focused global attention on Pakistan. These revelations were followed by US demands for direct access for international investigators to interview Khan. It is believed that this access has not yet been granted.
Since 2003 the Pakistani military has taken over the security surrounding the nuclear project, which is reportedly based on between 100 to 120 nuclear bombs. However, Western officials say concerns linked to Pakistan's past record on nuclear proliferation continue to overshadow its search for civil nuclear reactors from the West.
While the US may resist Pakistan's demands on certain issues, Washington is unlikely to be able to keep relations with Islamabad on a tight leash. This is largely in view of the growing number of casualties among US troops stationed in Afghanistan. At least 57 US soldiers were killed in January and February: more than twice the number of casualties in the same period a year ago.
The US is publicly putting on a bold face by promising to continue fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, but its ability to operate over the long term without an alliance with Pakistan is in doubt. The final objective in this engagement appears to be that of the US laying the course for an eventual exit from Afghanistan, leaving Pakistan to fill the security void.
Farhan Bokhari is a JDW Correspondent, based in Islamabad
