beijingwalker
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America is losing the Cold War with China. Can the next US president restrain China better?
October 27, 2020, 2:10 AM IST
Writing recently Robert Zoellick, former US trade representative, observed that President Donald Trump was losing his new ‘Cold War’ with China as he had failed to reduce the trade deficit with it and did not lead US allies in pursuit of common interests. Presidential candidate Joseph Biden has promised that if elected, he would build a “united front of US allies and partners to confront China’s abusive behaviours”.
Are the US allies willing to confront China in security and economic domains? Germany, Japan, Asean and many other countries have a robust economic relationship with China, whose benefits they are unwilling to sacrifice while maintaining their security ties with the US. EU countries do not have any adverse security relationship with China. Italy, Greece, several Central and East European members of EU are tied with China in Belt and Road and other advantageous initiatives.
The US was alone in applying sanctions on China for imposing a national security law in Hong Kong; most of its allies did not join it even in criticising China, fearing adverse impact on their trade relations. Trust of allies in Europe and East Asia in the US has waned after Trump’s erratic leadership and US’s withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement, Iran nuclear deal and other hotspots without consulting them, bickering over security issues and imposition of tariffs on the EU countries. France and Germany have moved away from a US centric world order to greater reliance on their own efforts and maintaining a distinct relationship with China; similarly, Japan, Australia and Asean countries are shoring up their own security against a rising China.
Trump’s tariffs on China’s exports did not produce the desired impact as the US authorities could not substitute imports of many items (eg iPhones, consumer goods) from third countries, unlike China which took good care not to impose tariffs on those products for which the US was the only or desirable source (eg semiconductors, pharmaceuticals).
Similarly, the US sanctions on export of semiconductors and microchips did not succeed, as China was able to source these from third countries like South Korea and Taiwan. Tariffs and sanctions will be successful only if these are applied after a meticulous examination of alternatives by all US partners collectively.
Will the new US president be able to persuade his partners to impose common tariffs or sanctions on China to end its unfair trade practices or bar export of sensitive technologies? It is difficult to say with what success; allies without any adverse security relationship with Beijing, whose economies are still mired in recession, may be hesitant to take such extreme steps.
The post-Covid world of January 2021, when the new US president takes over, will be very different from 2016 when the Obama-Biden duo left. China’s ability to control the virus and resume its high growth trajectory has further widened the existing differential between itself and other major powers; China is expected to grow by 2% in 2020 while most other major economies would contract. As per Lowy Institute, Australia, the US and Japan will take until 2024 and 2027 respectively to recover to the 2019 levels of economic activity. India’s economy by 2030 would be only 40% of China’s GDP, down from the 50% forecast in 2019.
The rising China poses an immediate challenge to the territorial integrity and security of many countries; its unfair policies have aided China’s rapid economic development at the expense of others. China has resorted to punitive attacks against South Korea, Japan and Australia and recently India for not following its diktat. The free world has to come together to push back China’s aggression to safeguard their societies.
The next US president will be confronted with these challenges as he outlines a strategy to counter an aggressive and combative China. India with its growing economy, large professional armed forces and a determination to resist China’s onslaught, could be a strong partner to push back China’s abusive behaviours. The US will have to assist in rebuilding the economic resilience, military and technological capabilities of India and other countries at China’s periphery, in this common pursuit.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
October 27, 2020, 2:10 AM IST
Writing recently Robert Zoellick, former US trade representative, observed that President Donald Trump was losing his new ‘Cold War’ with China as he had failed to reduce the trade deficit with it and did not lead US allies in pursuit of common interests. Presidential candidate Joseph Biden has promised that if elected, he would build a “united front of US allies and partners to confront China’s abusive behaviours”.
Are the US allies willing to confront China in security and economic domains? Germany, Japan, Asean and many other countries have a robust economic relationship with China, whose benefits they are unwilling to sacrifice while maintaining their security ties with the US. EU countries do not have any adverse security relationship with China. Italy, Greece, several Central and East European members of EU are tied with China in Belt and Road and other advantageous initiatives.
The US was alone in applying sanctions on China for imposing a national security law in Hong Kong; most of its allies did not join it even in criticising China, fearing adverse impact on their trade relations. Trust of allies in Europe and East Asia in the US has waned after Trump’s erratic leadership and US’s withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement, Iran nuclear deal and other hotspots without consulting them, bickering over security issues and imposition of tariffs on the EU countries. France and Germany have moved away from a US centric world order to greater reliance on their own efforts and maintaining a distinct relationship with China; similarly, Japan, Australia and Asean countries are shoring up their own security against a rising China.
Trump’s tariffs on China’s exports did not produce the desired impact as the US authorities could not substitute imports of many items (eg iPhones, consumer goods) from third countries, unlike China which took good care not to impose tariffs on those products for which the US was the only or desirable source (eg semiconductors, pharmaceuticals).
Similarly, the US sanctions on export of semiconductors and microchips did not succeed, as China was able to source these from third countries like South Korea and Taiwan. Tariffs and sanctions will be successful only if these are applied after a meticulous examination of alternatives by all US partners collectively.
Will the new US president be able to persuade his partners to impose common tariffs or sanctions on China to end its unfair trade practices or bar export of sensitive technologies? It is difficult to say with what success; allies without any adverse security relationship with Beijing, whose economies are still mired in recession, may be hesitant to take such extreme steps.
The post-Covid world of January 2021, when the new US president takes over, will be very different from 2016 when the Obama-Biden duo left. China’s ability to control the virus and resume its high growth trajectory has further widened the existing differential between itself and other major powers; China is expected to grow by 2% in 2020 while most other major economies would contract. As per Lowy Institute, Australia, the US and Japan will take until 2024 and 2027 respectively to recover to the 2019 levels of economic activity. India’s economy by 2030 would be only 40% of China’s GDP, down from the 50% forecast in 2019.
The rising China poses an immediate challenge to the territorial integrity and security of many countries; its unfair policies have aided China’s rapid economic development at the expense of others. China has resorted to punitive attacks against South Korea, Japan and Australia and recently India for not following its diktat. The free world has to come together to push back China’s aggression to safeguard their societies.
The next US president will be confronted with these challenges as he outlines a strategy to counter an aggressive and combative China. India with its growing economy, large professional armed forces and a determination to resist China’s onslaught, could be a strong partner to push back China’s abusive behaviours. The US will have to assist in rebuilding the economic resilience, military and technological capabilities of India and other countries at China’s periphery, in this common pursuit.
America is losing the Cold War with China. Can the next US president restrain China better?
Writing recently Robert Zoellick, former US trade representative, observed that President Donald Trump was losing his new ‘Cold War’ with China as he had failed to reduce the trade deficit with it and did not...
