almost a year without crash

[Hell hound]

First i will like to congratulate your IAF guys on almost a year free crash.its been almost 10 month since last fix wing fighter jet crashed you guys are doing great.so how did you guys pull it off is a mystery a force which was losing almost 10-13 jet a year is now at almost 0 did you reduce the sortie count of old jets or retire them altogether so you are getting less crashes at at expense of flying hours which is not a bad thing safety always come first or is it because jets are spending more time in the hangers for more rigorous maintenance.
@MilSpec @hinduguy @Abingdonboy @Joe Shearer

 

[livingdead]

i am not expert or insider... and take whatever other two gentlemen say with liberal helping of salt..

 

[Hell hound]

i am not expert or insider... and take whatever other two gentlemen say with liberal helping of salt..

you could tag anyone you like bro i just tagged you guys because you were the first one who came to my mind when i thought about indain members.

 

[kaykay]

Many things could be responsible for this. Number of Mig-27s and 21s are being retired every year, better maintenance etc.

 

[livingdead]

you could tag anyone you like bro i just tagged you guys because you are the first one who came to my mind when i thought about indain members.

I doubt any Indian can honestly answer that question.. its just guesswork like you did.

 

[Hell hound]

Many things could be responsible for this. Number of Mig-27s and 21s are being retired every year, better maintenance etc.

what ever it is from the surface it looks like you guys are doing great with those old relics then you were doing last year your migs and our mirages need to go now these guys are just old for this shit

 

[kaykay]

what ever it is from the surface it looks like you guys are doing great with those old relics now then you were doing last year your migs and our mirages need to go now these guys are just old for this shit

Yeah man but its not as easy....We still have a fleet of 250+ oldies(Mig-21/27) and Its a massive number...Wishful thinking is good but practically its gonna take 5-7 more years and alot of money.... Hopefully from next year we'll start getting aircrafts from 3 different production lines....

 

[Abingdonboy]

First i will like to congratulate your IAF guys on almost a year free crash.its been almost 10 month since last fix wing fighter jet crashed you guys are doing great.so how did you guys pull it off is a mystery a force which was losing almost 10-13 jet a year is now at almost 0 did you reduce the sortie count of old jets or retire them altogether so you are getting less crashes at at expense of flying hours which is not a bad thing safety always come first or is it because jets are spending more time in the hangers for more rigorous maintenance.
@MilSpec @hinduguy @Abingdonboy @Joe Shearer

Well firstly it was a myth the IAF was "crash prone" that said the accident rate was always going to go down because of:

1) Improved procedures (organisation are constantly learning and developing best practices)
2) To aid in the above, greater financial means allows for the upgrading of tech, skill development and such
3) Probably the biggest factor; old types (MiG-21s and 27s) are being phased out and replaced by MUCH more advanced (and safe) types.
4) Older jets are being totally upgraded (Jaguars to DARIN III (re-engining still pending but should come soon), MiG-29s to UPG, Mirage 2000 to -5 MK.2).

The trend is clear and as even newer jets with even greater maintainability come into service (LCA, Rafale and FGFA) the situation will only improve.

 

[Hell hound]

Yeah man but its not as easy....We still have a fleet of 250+ oldies(Mig-21/27) and Its a massive number...Wishful thinking is good but practically its gonna take 5-7 more years and alot of money.... Hopefully from next year we'll start getting aircrafts from 3 different production lines....

and we need to replace 190 jet in 5 year seems like an impossible task.

 

[Abingdonboy]

and we need to replace 190 jet in 5 year seems like an impossible task.

That requires inducting almost 40 new jets/year and for every year that goes by below this rate the required induction rate increases. It seems unlikely the PAF will be able to meet this to be honest when it looks as though the JF-17 is the only jet it will be inducting till 2020 and its production rate is nowhere near the required levels AFAIK. I think the PAF could be facing a similar crisis to the IAF in the previous decade where chronic under investment meant that a huge volume of outdated (and unsafe) jets accumulated requiring phasing out but were forced to limp on in lieu of the funds to replace them.

 

[Hell hound]

Well firstly it was a myth the IAF was "crash prone" that said the accident rate was always going to go down because of:

1) Improved procedures (organisation are constantly learning and developing best practices)
2) To aid in the above, greater financial means allows for the upgrading of tech, skill development and such
3) Probably the biggest factor; old types (MiG-21s and 27s) are being phased out and replaced by MUCH more advanced (and safe) types.
4) Older jets are being totally upgraded (Jaguars to DARIN III (re-engining still pending but should come soon), MiG-29s to UPG, Mirage 2000 to -5 MK.2).

The trend is clear and as even newer jets with even greater maintainability come into service (LCA, Rafale and FGFA) the situation will only improve.

so how many migs you phased out this year and which jet replaced them because in last year i don't think you inducted any jet in IAF.

 

[Laozi]

I doubt any Indian can honestly answer that question.. its just guesswork like you did.

 

[Hell hound]

That requires inducting almost 40 new jets/year and for every year that goes by below this rate the required induction rate increases. It seems unlikely the PAF will be able to meet this to be honest when it looks as though the JF-17 is the only jet it will be inducting till 2020 and its production rate is nowhere near the required levels AFAIK. I think the PAF could be facing a similar crisis to the IAF in the previous decade where chronic under investment meant that a huge volume of outdated (and unsafe) jets accumulated requiring phasing out but were forced to limp on in lieu of the funds to replace them.

it is already facing it our mirages are way past their due date and rate jf 17 induction extremely low.we do need something to plug the gaps be it a new type of jet or new production line.if we even manage to replace about 130 by 2020 it will be a huge victory for us.because we still need to work on new block of jf 17 we can't just induct the old stuff.

 

[Abingdonboy]

so how many migs you phased out this year and which jet replaced them because in last year i don't think you inducted any jet in IAF.

16-19 MKIs are inducted every year into the IAF and will be until 2025 regardless of any other jet orders.

Some MiG-21 SQNs have been converted to MKI SQNs but the main replacement for the MiG-21 is the LCA and that is only now being inducted. By 2018 1 SQN will be in service and from there on another 16 LCA MK.1A will be inducted every year (ie replacing a MiG-21 SQN every 12 months). Furthermore 2018 will also see the induction of the Rafale which will replace the MiG-27 SQNs intially and from 2019 onwards 16 or so Rafales will be churned out in India every year. So by 2020 there will be 3 fighter types (for a total of around 50 jets every year- perhaps more if a second LCA line is established) being inducted simultaneously.


+ It should also be noted that some MiG-21 SQNs were OCUs (operational conversion units) made up of the "FL"- a trainer variant and these have been entirely replaced by the Hawk Mk.132 AJT.

it is already facing it our mirages are way past their due date and rate jf 17 induction extremely low.we do need something to plug the gaps be it a new type of jet or new production line.if we even manage to replace about 130 by 2020 it will be a huge victory for us.because we still need to work on new block of jf 17 we can't just induct the old stuff.

Unless the Karma production line is expanded by 3-4 times its current capacity it won't be sufficent to meet those needs. It really seems as though the PAF needs to induct a second line of fighters if it is serious about its target for 2020.

 

[Hell hound]

16-19 MKIs are inducted every year into the IAF and will be until 2025 regardless of any other jet orders.

Some MiG-21 SQNs have been converted to MKI SQNs but the main replacement for the MiG-21 is the LCA and that is only now being inducted. By 2018 1 SQN will be in service and from there on another 16 LCA MK.1A will be inducted every year (ie replacing a MiG-21 SQN every 12 months). Furthermore 2018 will also see the induction of the Rafale which will replace the MiG-27 SQNs intially and from 2019 onwards 16 or so Rafales will be churned out in India every year. So by 2020 there will be 3 fighter types (for a total of around 50 jets every year- perhaps more if a second LCA line is established) being inducted simultaneously.


+ It should also be noted that some MiG-21 SQNs were OCUs (operational conversion units) made up of the "FL"- a trainer variant and these have been entirely replaced by the Hawk Mk.132 AJT.


Unless the Karma production line is expanded by 3-4 times its current capacity it won't be sufficent to meet those needs. It really seems as though the PAF needs to induct a second line of fighters if it is serious about its target for 2020.

judging by the pace of rafale deal it seems hard that you will get your first jet in 2018