Afghan presidential election in crisis as candidate alleges 'blatant fraud'

[nangyale]

Afghan presidential election in crisis as candidate alleges 'blatant fraud'
Abdullah Abdullah calls for UN involvement, amid concerns over 'exaggerated' turnout in strongholds of rival Ashraf Ghani

• Emma Graham-Harrison
• The Guardian, Wednesday 18 June

Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah, who has accused the election commission of involvement in fraud. Photograph: Ahmad Massoud/Xinhua Press/Corbis

Afghanistan's presidential election has been plunged into crisis after one candidate demanded a halt to vote counting, suspended cooperation with election authorities and called for a UN commission to mediate over cases of "blatant fraud".

It was an unexpectedly strong challenge to an election that had initially been celebrated as a qualified success, with high turnout in both the first round and a 14 June run-off, despite Taliban threats and violence.

Former foreign minister and mujahideen doctor Abdullah Abdullah had already signalled that he was unhappy about preliminary turnout figures for the second round, and wary of large leaps in voter numbers in the strongholds of his rival Ashraf Ghani, a former finance minister and World Bank technocrat.

But the force of his complaints and the extent of his demands raise the prospect of weeks of fraught disputes and further delays to a process that is already painfully slow. A final decision on who has won is not due until 22 July.

"We have asked our monitors to leave the offices of the [election] commission, and we are asking for the counting process to be stopped immediately," Abdullah told a news conference in Kabul.

"We all know that the turnout was not as high as it was said," he added. "The exaggerated number of votes reported from the provinces was not in proportion with that area, let alone the security situation."

Ghani said shortly after that his observers would continue to monitor vote tallying, and that stopping the count would be an insult to voters.

The election to choose a successor to President Hamid Karzai, who has ruled for over a decade, should pave the way for the country's first democratic transfer of power. Afghans hope the change will revitalise a feeble economy and perhaps push the country towards peace.

The speedy inauguration of a new leader is also vital to keeping US troops in the country past the end of this year to back up an Afghan army with limited capacity. They can only stay if Kabul signs a long-term security deal with Washington, and Karzai has deferred the decision to his successor.

The first round of voting in April was hailed as a victory for democracy, after voters turned out in unexpectedly high numbers and the results were broadly accepted by all candidates. The second round also appeared at first to have gone relatively smoothly.

An election observer mission from the US-based National Democratic Institute concluded two days after the poll that "the problems it observed did not appear to be widespread or systematic".

Since then questions have mounted about the leap in voter turnout in Ghani strongholds. His supporters say he effectively mobilised voters, especially conservatives from his own Pashtun ethnic group, who struck deals with Taliban commanders to allow villagers to go to the polls and reluctantly let women cast their ballots in defiance of tradition.

Abdullah and his backers have hinted instead that they used poor security and political influence to stuff ballot boxes on a scale that fits uneasily with population numbers for many areas.

Asked what might induce him to rejoin the vote counting process, Abdullah made a proposal likely to infuriate Karzai, who fought hard to ensure foreigners had no official role in running or monitoring the election.

"One way would be to form a joint committee between the two candidates under the supervision of the UN," Abdullah said. A UN spokesman said they were keen to support the election but had not received any suggestions of a new role for the organisation before the news conference.

The UN "regretted" Abdullah's decision to pull out his observers, spokesman Ari Gaitanis added, and called on both teams and their supporters to "act responsibly in the interest of national unity and avoid any statements or actions that could disrupt due process".

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

Just when you thought that at least in Afghanistan things were beginning to look good.

 

[nangyale]

Just when you thought that at least in Afghanistan things were beginning to look good.

I was wondering why all the propagandists have gone quite.
Do you remember the April election, now contrast it with this one.

 

[Shahmir]

Abdullah is right, he clearly had a big margin of 15 % on his opponent, even in multi candidate round he nearly got 45 % of the vote, it will be ridiculous and fraud if his opponent now all of a sudden gets more than 50 %, this can happen only if there are major irregularities and rigging during the recent bi-candidate election and all the foreign media that I have read on this issue is reporting the same thing that Karzai wants to see him defeated so the possibility of fraud is inevitably there.

 

[nangyale]

Abdullah is right, he clearly had a big margin of 15 % on his opponent, even in multi candidate round he nearly got 45 % of the vote, it will be ridiculous and fraud if his opponent now all of a sudden gets more than 50 %, this can happen only if there are major irregularities and rigging during the recent bi-candidate election and all the foreign media that I have read on this issue is reporting the same thing that Karzai wants to see him defeated so the possibility of fraud is inevitably there.

Karzai doesn't hold the major cards anymore. If it was upto him we had got Zalmai Rassoul as the president by now. But he is nowhere to be seen.
The elections are decided by another power.

 

[Shahmir]

Karzai doesn't hold the major cards anymore. If it was upto him we had got Zalmai Rassoul as the president by now. But he is nowhere to be seen.
The elections are decided by another power.

The only other power is USA, I read Ghani was a former World bank employee so perhaps USA wants Ghani at any cost as president of afghanistan.

 

[nangyale]

The only other power is USA, I read Ghani was a former World bank employee so perhaps USA wants Ghani at any cost as president of afghanistan.

Plus he doesn't have a political background of his own (being a technocrat), so will be easier to manipulate.

 

[Thoryalai Zazai]

Afghan presidential election in crisis as candidate alleges 'blatant fraud'

There's nothing new in partisan disputes among electoral candidates. That's why studies have been conducted for dispute resolutions:

http://www.idea.int/news/newsletters/upload/concept_paper_EDR.pdf

...with the current fiasco getting uglier by the minute, both parties will eventually have to settle for a third party to get involved for a decision (possibly the UN), review the grievances and any accomodating evidence before passing judgement.

I believe at least eager well-wishers in BOTH camps have conducted some degree of fraud. Dr Abdullah's complaint is with the higher proportion of votes that have been reported, especially across the eastern provinces of the country that support Dr Ashraf Ghani. He's perfectly right to point this out in areas where the votes are disproportionate to the actual size of the electorates. However, the same has been pointed out by Dr Ghani's team with regards to pro-Dr Abdullah electorates, wherein the total number of votes in some cases are higher than the actual population. Moreover, it's also true that many people - especially among Dr Ghani's constituencies - who were reluctant to vote the first time, were certainly motivated to do so after seeing the possibility of a Dr Abdullah win as reflected in the first electoral round. In traditionally conservative areas for instance where the women stayed out of the vote, they actually came out in large numbers to vote in the second round.

Somebody above any vested interest in Afghan politics will have to be assigned to weigh up the facts and pass a decision both parties will have to pre-commit to agree to. There's always a solution for everything, so long as all parties to any conflict are willing to tango. I've good reason to believe that it serves nobody in Afghanistan - other than our enemies and their puppets - to escalate this dispute into mass violence. We'll just have to wait and see how it'll all unfold....

...at the end of the day, a good Democracy is a noisy Democracy...

 

[nangyale]

Afghan runoff thrown into disarray

By M K Bhadrakumar
Soon after the Afghan presidential runoff on June 14 was internationally acclaimed as a grand success, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, one of the two contenders, has set the cat among the pigeons by pointing an accusing finger alleging fraud on the part of the Election Commission, including its chief Zia-ul-Haq Amarkhil. (here). He point blank dissociated from the runoff.

Why Abdullah who has been generally pleased with life in general until last week — and looking forward to his presidency — should resort to a volte-face and take to rabble rousing is intriguing. Is he dramatizing his plight in anticipation of a prospective defeat at the hands of his opponent Ashraf Ghani? Doubts arise.
The runoff was a close race, as I wrote in my blog sometime ago. It was touch and go for Abdullah and it seems he failed to carry the Pashtun electorate.
The bar of democracy is abysmally low in Afghanistan and everyone knows that the elctoral system has many flaws. However, by creating a public scandal at this late stage, Abdullah is undermining the Afghan political scene as a whole as well as constitutional rule itself. At the very minimum, he should have waited till the votes were counted and thereafter taken recourse to prescribed channels to voice his discontent.
From what Abdullah has alleged, another runoff might have to be held to satisfy him. Maybe, he should conduct the runoff himself. Even then, what if he manages to win in the next runoff, and it becomes Ghani’s turn to act as the spoiler? In the ultimate analysis, there could be a third winner — Taliban — who have been insisting that Afghan constitution and democracy is a sham affair.
Abdullah’s allegation creates a constitutional crisis in the country and in the highly polarized political situation, some sort of international mediation may be useful. Who will bell the cat? India, which claims friendship with both Karzai and Abdullah? Will Pakistan accept India’s role as king maker in Kabul? Unlikely. It’s unwise for India to meddle.
Karzai’s term has ended and an orderly transfer of power is due. He is bound to enjoy the prospect of exercising power for an extended period of time. Karzai is a deal maker par excellence. But Abdullah has accused him in the past of playing partisan politics.
Abdullah’s allegation is tantamount to being a Panjshiri (Tajik) allegation and any dissociation by the Panjshiris from the electoral process is fraught with grave implications, not only because it splits the country down the middle on ethnic and regional lines but also given the dominance of the Tajiks in the security establishment and the military.

Whether Abdullah intends to push the envelope is the big question. He is an ambitious politician and in Afghanistan, as Karzai has shown, the winner takes it all. Abdullah is determined that he must willy-nilly win this election and become the president, because it could be now or never.
Abdullah raised a similar storm in the last election five years ago and it needed a forceful US intervention to pacify him and make him accept Hamid Karzai’s victory. This time around, however, President Barack Obama may not feel the urge to do wheeling and dealing in the Afghan bazaar. He’s had enough of it already.
Having said that, Washington cannot remain indifferent, either, since the fate of the US-Afghan security pact becomes uncertain now, as it is predicated on a new president being elected. (Karzai refuses to sign the pact.) Iran nuclear issue, Syria’s civil war, Iraq’s fragmentation and, now, a potential derailment of the Afghan transition — Greater Middle East indeed continues to define the Obama administration’s foreign policy. There is little time (and scarce resources) left to pay attention to Ukraine or the ‘pivot’ to Asia.

 

[Sher Malang]

He is acting like a bitch, with zilch evidence he is blaming everyone; only shows how desperate he is for the thrown. He should submit his legal claims to the complaints commission of IEC, supreme court and law enforcement organs of Afghanistan.

European Union has already declared the second round election more clear and open then the first round.

The thing is Dr. Abdullahx2 did his part of fraud in the first round very professionally where most of the polling stations in his stronghold went out of ballot papers within 1 hour (how can 600 voters voted in 1 hour?) that only means the ballot boxes were already filled or been kept safe for filling them in his favor later but this time they were restricted to do this.

Secondly, majority of Pashtun population voted for Dr. Ashraf Ghani because many of the first round Pashtun candidates went in favor of Dr. Abdullahx2 which the Pashtun population disliked and favored Dr. Ashraf Ghani over Dr. Abdullahx2.

Thirdly, he don't have any good background nor he has any achievements; being a bodyguard of Ahmad Shah Massoud doesn't mean one should become a president of a country.

To the desperate OP, keep calm things are fine here, Dr. Abdullahx2 will be satisfied by the commissions both the government and UNAMA are involved in resolving the issue.

 

[farhan_9909]

He is acting like a bitch, with zilch evidence he is blaming everyone; only shows how desperate he is for the thrown. He should submit his legal claims to the complaints commission of IEC, supreme court and law enforcement organs of Afghanistan.

European Union has already declared the second round election more clear and open then the first round.

The thing is Dr. Abdullahx2 did his part of fraud in the first round very professionally where most of the polling stations in his stronghold went out of ballot papers within 1 hour (how can 600 voters voted in 1 hour?) that only means the ballot boxes were already filled or been kept safe for filling them in his favor later but this time they were restricted to do this.

Secondly, majority of Pashtun population voted for Dr. Ashraf Ghani because many of the first round Pashtun candidates went in favor of Dr. Abdullahx2 which the Pashtun population disliked and favored Dr. Ashraf Ghani over Dr. Abdullahx2.

Thirdly, he don't have any good background nor he has any achievements; being a bodyguard of Ahmad Shah Massoud doesn't mean one should become a president of a country.

To the desperate OP, keep calm things are fine here, Dr. Abdullahx2 will be satisfied by the commissions both the government and UNAMA are involved in resolving the issue.

Dr Ashraf Ghani if makes it to the president,Afghanistan president will be the most educated president in the region

 

[Shabaz Sharif]

Dr Ashraf Ghani if makes it to the president,Afghanistan president will be the most educated president in the region

Yes Ghani seem to be good person while Abdullah record is questionable.

 

[Thoryalai Zazai]

He is acting like a bitch

...Shukria Barekzai put it nicely recently. She stated that whether he wins or loses the Presidency, Dr Abdullah has already lost.

 

[nangyale]

It is a shameful affair when Afghans on this forum start calling the candidate who secured 45% of the Afghan vote as a "Bitch"

 

[nangyale]

Afghan hopeful Abdullah Abdullah to reject poll result
By Karen Allen BBC News, Kabul

Presidential hopeful Abdullah Abdullah says turnout figures have been grossly inflated

Afghan candidate Abdullah Abdullah has said he will reject any final result following Saturday's presidential vote which he says was marred by fraud.

"Whatever results are announced are not acceptable," he told reporters.

The move is being seen as a clear sign that he is ratcheting up pressure following the second round.

Dr Abdullah secured a clear lead during the first round of voting in April, but failed to garner enough votes to win an outright majority, forcing the run-off.

The former resistance fighter and foreign minister said the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and its complaints body (EEC) were not neutral and warned that both would be responsible for the "consequences" of the election.

Waiting in the wings
The backdrop to this is that his rival Ashraf Ghani appears to have performed better in the run-off in some places. Official results will not be released until next month.

Dr Abdullah has criticised the election authorities for failing to halt the count.

On Wednesday he announced that he was "suspending co-operation" following their failure to respond to his criticism of "industrial scale fraud". But so far he has stopped short of calling for all-out protests.

Abdullah Abdullah has demanded an immediate halt to vote-counting

There are fears Abdullah's supporters could take to the streets en masse in protest against alleged fraud

The question is how long will Dr Abdullah's supporters refrain from taking to the streets?

His rival has resisted making public statements and has the appearance of a confident man waiting in the wings.

The Ghani team also have concerns about alleged voting irregularities, but say the count process and checks for fraud must be allowed to continue unhindered.

A source close to the Ghani campaign said "we are not equipped as layman to judge the performance of the IEC" and rejected the widely held suspicion among many Afghan voters that it has been stacked with President Karzai and Ghani loyalists.

He also questioned why Dr Abdullah was raising issues with the election body now, rather than prior to the vote, suggesting that he could be bracing himself for defeat - after emerging as the frontrunner in the first round.

The 11th hour
There is growing international concern about the destabilising influence mistrust of the election authorities could have and this is only likely to intensify with Dr Abdullah's threat that he will reject a final result.

Dr Abdullah has called for a UN commission to investigate the results. Insiders from the Ashraf Ghani camp say whilst they would co-operate with such a move, they won't get "engaged in a review at the 11th hour".

Naeem Ayubzada, from the observer group Transparent Election Foundation of Afghanistan, told the BBC that he believed the mistrust is now too deep and the election authority "cannot solve this problem on its own".

The pressure is increasing for the international community to intervene to avert a crisis in Afghanistan.

Abdullah's rival Ashraf Ghani trailed in the first round but seems to have done much better in the run-off

But how much will the UN want to get involved?

It has already called for transparency and expressed "regrets" about Dr Abdullah's position, but will it be forced into a position of arbiter and risk accusations of foreign meddling?

One of the key areas in the dispute is voter turnout. The IEC announced within hours of the polling stations closing that seven million people had cast their ballots.

The speed of its announcement has caused suspicion in some quarters and Naeem Ayubzada's observers believe that the turnout figure could be much closer to six million.


If that is correct it could raise the stakes even higher - and mean that the margin between the two men fighting to be the next president is far narrower than previously thought.


That's a scenario many observers fear could be deeply destabilising.