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A disaster in the making?
Mohsin Khalid
After Bhutto's nationalisation and the first Afghan-Transit Treaty of 1965, a third unmitigated disaster, the revised Afghan-Pak Transit-Trade Agreement, has been added to the list. The renegotiated APTTA, if implemented in its current form, will deal a deathblow to our economy and bring it to a point of no return.
Allowing Afghan trucks to freely move within Pakistan and pick up their cargo from Karachi will not only put our national security at risk but also ensure our economic ruin. We will witness unprecedented levels of smuggling that would result in industrial failures and closures. No amount of tracking devices and biometric examinations can ensure that the cargoes carried on these trucks are not offloaded at any of the multiple stops that a truck takes on the five-day, 1700-kilometre journey from Torkham to Karachi.
In a nation that cannot effectively track and monitor killers, rapists, tax-evaders or even prevent fake-degree holders from making it to parliament, is it possible to track and monitor loose cargo that would be allowed to be transported in open Afghan trucks through 'designated routes' to Wagah and Karachi?
Presently, Afghan-transit cargo is transported from Karachi up to Amangarh and Chaman dry ports by Pakistani trucks and then offloaded onto Afghan trucks for the journey onward. This arrangement, though not outlined in the original treaty of 1965, has worked smoothly for over three decades to the mutual benefit of both countries and industry players.
The United States, the principal behind-the-scenes intermediary in the latest APTTA negotiations has aggressively lobbied to update the 1965treaty to allow Afghan trucks into Pakistan all the way to Karachi.
Ironically, the US itself does not allow Mexican trucks to travel beyond a 25-mile commercial zone inside its borders, violating a binding commitment under the 1993 NAFTA agreement. It does this on the grounds of controlling the pilferage of drugs and weapons into the US and protecting American trucking jobs, precisely the reasons why we should be blocking Afghan trucks going beyond the allocated dry ports.
Also, the US follows the same model as we do. Cargoes from Mexican trucks are transferred onto American trucks for an onward journey into the US. Even more interesting is the fact that in March 2009 the Obama administration blocked an attempt by the previous Bush administration to allow some Mexican trucks across most American Highways, effectively limiting them again to the 25-mile zone.
Afghanistan's transit trade needs have been met for the last 45 years by the Pakistani transport sector, creating millions of jobs in the process. On average, more than 400 containers of Afghan Transit Trade and about 200 containers of US/ISAF cargo move daily from Karachi towards the Torkham and Chaman border-crossings.
The revenue for our transport industry, drivers and agents involved in this operation is roughly Rs80 million daily, or a whopping Rs30 billion annually. On top of this are the allied services associated with transporting these cargoes upcountry, diesel, tyres, spare parts, lubricants and so on. That's an additional Rs100 billion annually and the multiplier effects it brings to the economy.[/U]...no mention of tax evasion!!!
All this money will not stay in Pakistan once it allows Afghan trucks to lift cargo from Pakistani ports. More than 60,000 Pakistanis are directly employed in the Afghan-Transit business. These are truck drivers, cleaners, clearing agents, brokers and handlers. Another 20,000 mechanics, greasers, technicians and affiliates depend on the flow of this business. These are all gainfully employed Pakistanis. Allowing Afghan trucks in the country will render these people jobless and move these jobs to Afghanistan. Ironically, those who will lose the most jobs are those who need them the most: The people of Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa and the tribal belt, the Afridis, the Shinwaris, and the Wazirs.
Many Pakistani politicians and commentators have accused the revised Afghan-Pakistan Transit-Trade Agreement, which was pushed by the United States, and which has been endorsed recently by our government, of granting undue concessions to India. Any discussion on the subject automatically focuses on how India would benefit from this treaty or gain access to the much-coveted land route to Afghanistan.
But that is not the truth. The public discourse has altogether missed the point. Even the most dovish of our political commentators are crying out hoarse over the concessions given to India.
The fact of the matter is that there are none. India like any other country has been exporting to Afghanistan through our ports for decades and will continue to do so under the ATTA. And the relatively meagre variety and volume of goods that Afghanistan can export to India, via Wagah if they may, is inconsequential.
The new ATTA is not about India. It's about us and Afghanistan. The real purpose of the APTTA is not to give India access to Afghanistan. It is to institutionalise, protect and sustain the primary source of livelihood of Afghan traders smuggling to Pakistan. Since the Afghan domestic market is too small to sustain a lasting trading operation, a large, prosperous and growing market must be made available to ensure the sustainability of a trade-based economy. That market is Pakistan.
Throughout the negotiations, the Afghans and their US handlers very cleverly used India as a decoy to throw the Pakistani public and media off the real issue at hand the arm-twisting and blackmailing to grant Afghanistan unprecedented concessions at the cost of Pakistan. Throughout the discussions the Afghan side was adamant they would not budge on the issue of granting India land access to Afghanistan, all along knowing that no Pakistani government would ever risk losing office by granting India this facility unless it was reciprocal. However, in the final hours before Secretary Clinton's arrival, the Afghan side finally 'compromised' on this 'non-negotiable' issue, but only after having won every concession they had asked for, while giving away none.
Let's look at the final tally: Afghanistan refused quantitative restrictions on smuggling-prone items. It refused to accept a negative list of smuggling-prone items. It refused to rationalise their duty structure to move it closer to Pakistan's in order to dis-incentivise smuggling. It refused to have drivers carry passports and valid visas to enter Pakistan
And what did we get in return? We got to stop India from using 'our' land route for exports to Afghanistan! And the icing on the cake: we get to welcome thousands of Afghan trucks, and citizens without passports, onto Pakistani roads some of who may foment terror, deliver smuggled goods and steal away our revenue and jobs. Allowing the APTTA to proceed in its present form will be the definitive last nail in the coffin for our economy.
The writer is a former President of Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry.Email: mohsinkhalid@hotmail.com
Mohsin Khalid
After Bhutto's nationalisation and the first Afghan-Transit Treaty of 1965, a third unmitigated disaster, the revised Afghan-Pak Transit-Trade Agreement, has been added to the list. The renegotiated APTTA, if implemented in its current form, will deal a deathblow to our economy and bring it to a point of no return.
Allowing Afghan trucks to freely move within Pakistan and pick up their cargo from Karachi will not only put our national security at risk but also ensure our economic ruin. We will witness unprecedented levels of smuggling that would result in industrial failures and closures. No amount of tracking devices and biometric examinations can ensure that the cargoes carried on these trucks are not offloaded at any of the multiple stops that a truck takes on the five-day, 1700-kilometre journey from Torkham to Karachi.
In a nation that cannot effectively track and monitor killers, rapists, tax-evaders or even prevent fake-degree holders from making it to parliament, is it possible to track and monitor loose cargo that would be allowed to be transported in open Afghan trucks through 'designated routes' to Wagah and Karachi?
Presently, Afghan-transit cargo is transported from Karachi up to Amangarh and Chaman dry ports by Pakistani trucks and then offloaded onto Afghan trucks for the journey onward. This arrangement, though not outlined in the original treaty of 1965, has worked smoothly for over three decades to the mutual benefit of both countries and industry players.
The United States, the principal behind-the-scenes intermediary in the latest APTTA negotiations has aggressively lobbied to update the 1965treaty to allow Afghan trucks into Pakistan all the way to Karachi.
Ironically, the US itself does not allow Mexican trucks to travel beyond a 25-mile commercial zone inside its borders, violating a binding commitment under the 1993 NAFTA agreement. It does this on the grounds of controlling the pilferage of drugs and weapons into the US and protecting American trucking jobs, precisely the reasons why we should be blocking Afghan trucks going beyond the allocated dry ports.
Also, the US follows the same model as we do. Cargoes from Mexican trucks are transferred onto American trucks for an onward journey into the US. Even more interesting is the fact that in March 2009 the Obama administration blocked an attempt by the previous Bush administration to allow some Mexican trucks across most American Highways, effectively limiting them again to the 25-mile zone.
Afghanistan's transit trade needs have been met for the last 45 years by the Pakistani transport sector, creating millions of jobs in the process. On average, more than 400 containers of Afghan Transit Trade and about 200 containers of US/ISAF cargo move daily from Karachi towards the Torkham and Chaman border-crossings.
The revenue for our transport industry, drivers and agents involved in this operation is roughly Rs80 million daily, or a whopping Rs30 billion annually. On top of this are the allied services associated with transporting these cargoes upcountry, diesel, tyres, spare parts, lubricants and so on. That's an additional Rs100 billion annually and the multiplier effects it brings to the economy.[/U]...no mention of tax evasion!!!
All this money will not stay in Pakistan once it allows Afghan trucks to lift cargo from Pakistani ports. More than 60,000 Pakistanis are directly employed in the Afghan-Transit business. These are truck drivers, cleaners, clearing agents, brokers and handlers. Another 20,000 mechanics, greasers, technicians and affiliates depend on the flow of this business. These are all gainfully employed Pakistanis. Allowing Afghan trucks in the country will render these people jobless and move these jobs to Afghanistan. Ironically, those who will lose the most jobs are those who need them the most: The people of Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa and the tribal belt, the Afridis, the Shinwaris, and the Wazirs.
Many Pakistani politicians and commentators have accused the revised Afghan-Pakistan Transit-Trade Agreement, which was pushed by the United States, and which has been endorsed recently by our government, of granting undue concessions to India. Any discussion on the subject automatically focuses on how India would benefit from this treaty or gain access to the much-coveted land route to Afghanistan.
But that is not the truth. The public discourse has altogether missed the point. Even the most dovish of our political commentators are crying out hoarse over the concessions given to India.
The fact of the matter is that there are none. India like any other country has been exporting to Afghanistan through our ports for decades and will continue to do so under the ATTA. And the relatively meagre variety and volume of goods that Afghanistan can export to India, via Wagah if they may, is inconsequential.
The new ATTA is not about India. It's about us and Afghanistan. The real purpose of the APTTA is not to give India access to Afghanistan. It is to institutionalise, protect and sustain the primary source of livelihood of Afghan traders smuggling to Pakistan. Since the Afghan domestic market is too small to sustain a lasting trading operation, a large, prosperous and growing market must be made available to ensure the sustainability of a trade-based economy. That market is Pakistan.
Throughout the negotiations, the Afghans and their US handlers very cleverly used India as a decoy to throw the Pakistani public and media off the real issue at hand the arm-twisting and blackmailing to grant Afghanistan unprecedented concessions at the cost of Pakistan. Throughout the discussions the Afghan side was adamant they would not budge on the issue of granting India land access to Afghanistan, all along knowing that no Pakistani government would ever risk losing office by granting India this facility unless it was reciprocal. However, in the final hours before Secretary Clinton's arrival, the Afghan side finally 'compromised' on this 'non-negotiable' issue, but only after having won every concession they had asked for, while giving away none.
Let's look at the final tally: Afghanistan refused quantitative restrictions on smuggling-prone items. It refused to accept a negative list of smuggling-prone items. It refused to rationalise their duty structure to move it closer to Pakistan's in order to dis-incentivise smuggling. It refused to have drivers carry passports and valid visas to enter Pakistan
And what did we get in return? We got to stop India from using 'our' land route for exports to Afghanistan! And the icing on the cake: we get to welcome thousands of Afghan trucks, and citizens without passports, onto Pakistani roads some of who may foment terror, deliver smuggled goods and steal away our revenue and jobs. Allowing the APTTA to proceed in its present form will be the definitive last nail in the coffin for our economy.
The writer is a former President of Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry.Email: mohsinkhalid@hotmail.com
