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'95.72 million may be climate displaced by 2040'
Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS)
DHAKA, Nov 29, 2012 (BSS) - More than 95.72 million people of Bangladesh are likely be displaced by environmental and weather related disasters by 2040, experts have warned, and the situation is only likely to grow worse as climatic disorders exacerbates such problems.
The Unnayan Onneshan, an independent multidisciplinary think- tank, in its new research reveals that the number of climate change induced forced displacement is increasing at an alarming proportion in Bangladesh, according to a report released here today.
Taking into account flood, cyclone, river bank erosion and drought under the business as usual scenario, the leading research organization estimates that climate change induced migration in Bangladesh may reach 22.37 million, 48.28 million and 95.72 million by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.
Analysing existing data, the Unnayan Onneshan has found that on an average 2.5 million people is displaced permanently by every major flood. Within the last five years, cyclone Sidr displaced 650,000 people, cyclone Bijli displaced 20,000 people and another 842,000 were displaced by cyclone Aila.
Moreover, 1.45 million people were displaced due to riverbank erosion in 2012 and 3 million people were displaced internally, both directly and indirectly, on temporary basis due to drought in 2011.
Referring to increased number of displacement over the years, the Unnayan Onneshan alerts that flood may displace 5.25 million, 11.02 million, 23.16 million people by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively, based upon the historical trend.
If radical actions are not taken, 1.58 million, 6.46 million and 26.39 million may be displaced due to cyclone by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively. In addition, if the usual situation continues unabated, riverbank erosion could displace 11.62 million, 26.15 million and 40.67 million by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.
Similarly, 3.92 million, 4.64 million and 5.5 million may be displaced due to drought by 2020, 2030 and 2040.
The report titled "The Tempest of Exodus: The Case of Climate Change-induced Displacement in Bangladesh and International Negotiations" was released under its Durban to Doha Technical Paper Series as the countries negotiates in Doha on the actions to be taken to combat climate change under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, chairperson of Unnayan Onneshan, said Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to a number of hydrological, geological and socio-economic factors. He said the impacts of climate change are visible in the form of extreme temperature, erratic rainfall, and increased number of intensified floods, cyclones, droughts, prevalence of rough weather in the bay, aggravated by poverty- related vulnerabilities and poor infrastructure.
Pointing to the inaction at the international negotiation, the Unnayan Onneshan says: "The upsurge in migration, caused by environmental degradation and climate change, is unprecedented,
yet the world is still mired only in 'expression of intent' in the climate change negotiations, at the cost of the people's lives and livelihood, particularly the poor and the marginalized, who have no contribution in changing the climate."
Despite strong scientific evidence of climate change induced displacement, the research organization observes that establishing a liner and causative relationship between anthropogenic climate change and migration has been difficult to date due to its association with charged political and economic factors.
Referring to tangling over many terms and concepts such as environmental or climate change migrants, environmentally induced
or forced migration, ecological or environmental refugee or climate change refugee, and environmental displacement in negotiations, the Unnayan Onneshan underscores formulating a clear definition and guiding principles for the climate migrants immediately.
"The intransigence by the developed countries on an adaptation regime, let alone to develop a mechanism to deal with the forced climate-induced migration, is a grave cause of concern," adds the Unnayan Onneshan.
The organization proposes declaring climate migrants as Universal Natural Persons (UNPs) and advocates relocating them according to their preference under the authority of UNFCCC. "Based on historical responsibility, carbon emission status and existing population density, the UNFCCC can formulate a legally binding instrument to determine the quotas for UNPs," the think- tank adds.
Reported by
Md. Enamul Haque
BSS Special Correspondent
Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS)
DHAKA, Nov 29, 2012 (BSS) - More than 95.72 million people of Bangladesh are likely be displaced by environmental and weather related disasters by 2040, experts have warned, and the situation is only likely to grow worse as climatic disorders exacerbates such problems.
The Unnayan Onneshan, an independent multidisciplinary think- tank, in its new research reveals that the number of climate change induced forced displacement is increasing at an alarming proportion in Bangladesh, according to a report released here today.
Taking into account flood, cyclone, river bank erosion and drought under the business as usual scenario, the leading research organization estimates that climate change induced migration in Bangladesh may reach 22.37 million, 48.28 million and 95.72 million by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.
Analysing existing data, the Unnayan Onneshan has found that on an average 2.5 million people is displaced permanently by every major flood. Within the last five years, cyclone Sidr displaced 650,000 people, cyclone Bijli displaced 20,000 people and another 842,000 were displaced by cyclone Aila.
Moreover, 1.45 million people were displaced due to riverbank erosion in 2012 and 3 million people were displaced internally, both directly and indirectly, on temporary basis due to drought in 2011.
Referring to increased number of displacement over the years, the Unnayan Onneshan alerts that flood may displace 5.25 million, 11.02 million, 23.16 million people by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively, based upon the historical trend.
If radical actions are not taken, 1.58 million, 6.46 million and 26.39 million may be displaced due to cyclone by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively. In addition, if the usual situation continues unabated, riverbank erosion could displace 11.62 million, 26.15 million and 40.67 million by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.
Similarly, 3.92 million, 4.64 million and 5.5 million may be displaced due to drought by 2020, 2030 and 2040.
The report titled "The Tempest of Exodus: The Case of Climate Change-induced Displacement in Bangladesh and International Negotiations" was released under its Durban to Doha Technical Paper Series as the countries negotiates in Doha on the actions to be taken to combat climate change under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, chairperson of Unnayan Onneshan, said Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to a number of hydrological, geological and socio-economic factors. He said the impacts of climate change are visible in the form of extreme temperature, erratic rainfall, and increased number of intensified floods, cyclones, droughts, prevalence of rough weather in the bay, aggravated by poverty- related vulnerabilities and poor infrastructure.
Pointing to the inaction at the international negotiation, the Unnayan Onneshan says: "The upsurge in migration, caused by environmental degradation and climate change, is unprecedented,
yet the world is still mired only in 'expression of intent' in the climate change negotiations, at the cost of the people's lives and livelihood, particularly the poor and the marginalized, who have no contribution in changing the climate."
Despite strong scientific evidence of climate change induced displacement, the research organization observes that establishing a liner and causative relationship between anthropogenic climate change and migration has been difficult to date due to its association with charged political and economic factors.
Referring to tangling over many terms and concepts such as environmental or climate change migrants, environmentally induced
or forced migration, ecological or environmental refugee or climate change refugee, and environmental displacement in negotiations, the Unnayan Onneshan underscores formulating a clear definition and guiding principles for the climate migrants immediately.
"The intransigence by the developed countries on an adaptation regime, let alone to develop a mechanism to deal with the forced climate-induced migration, is a grave cause of concern," adds the Unnayan Onneshan.
The organization proposes declaring climate migrants as Universal Natural Persons (UNPs) and advocates relocating them according to their preference under the authority of UNFCCC. "Based on historical responsibility, carbon emission status and existing population density, the UNFCCC can formulate a legally binding instrument to determine the quotas for UNPs," the think- tank adds.
Reported by
Md. Enamul Haque
BSS Special Correspondent
