Opinion - Winners and Losers of Russia-Ukraine War

[SuvarnaTeja]

Winners
======================

US - Without any doubt and by a big margin US is the biggest winner of this war. In one masterstroke US has destroyed EU-Russia and Russia-Japan detente

China - A weakened Russia is now a junior partner with China. China will now dominate Russia, Central Asia and all former Soviet republics. Also weakened EU will no longer have stomach to take on China. This implies that annexation of Taiwan and claiming the entire South China sea is closer than predicted earlier. Chinese Yuan will now emerge as the real alternative to US dollar than Euro.

Pakistan - Pakistan has put all her bets on China and China is coming out stronger means it is great news for Pakistan

OPEC - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Venezuela etc. are going to have good times ahead with EU, Japan, South Korea and South East Asia increasing Oil and Gas purchases to compensate for their lose of Russia as a supplier

Losers
========================

Russia - Russia's military power has taken a big beating and its economy is collapsing under sanctions and now has no choice but to become a junior partner of China. Chinese SCO will overshadow CSTO completely now. Also China can now reclaim Siberia and Artic spaces

Ukraine - The country has been totally destroyed Socially, Technologically and Economically. It will become a client state of EU and US will keep paying interest on loans for the next century

EU - All the talk of relevance of NATO and replacing it with European Security framework has been totally evaporated. EU countries will pay a heavy price economically and are now heavily dependent on the US and China for their survival. With NordStream gone, Cheap Oil and Gas from Russia is history and inflation is going to wreck their economies for foreseeable future

India - Most of the Indian military is Russian and Ukrainian origin. Ukrainian defense industry has been destroyed while Russian defence industry has been heavily sanctioned. Indian military is at its weakest in the entire history of the country. Also, US will now put additional pressure on India to buy US equipment instead with a real threat of CAATSA sanctions. China and Pakistan may initiate a war any time now

Turkiye - Turkiye tried to pivot to Russia and China but the timing turned out to be very bad. With a weakened Russia and uninterested EU and NATO partners, Revival of Turkish economy and defense industry will be a tall task. TurkStream gas pipeline will also take a big hit.

Japan - A more stronger China, weakened Quad, loss of cheap Russian Oil & Gas, Belligerent North Korea nextdoor, death of Russia-Japan detente

South Korea - South Korea - North Korea detente is dead.

ASEAN - Indo-China will be fall into complete influence of China while Southern Ocean nations will become complete vassal states of the US



What are the other winners and losers that you can think of?

 

[xuxu1457]

winner 1.US 2.UK 3. American farmers and arms dealers 4. Oil-producing countries 5.Zelenski
loser：1.Ukraine，
2. Russia,
3. Europe,
4. China, India, Pakistan and other oil importing countries
5. Poor countries suffering from food shortages due to rising food prices

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

winner 1.US 2.UK 3. American farmers and arms dealers 4. Oil-producing countries 5.Zelenski
loser：1.Ukraine，
2. Russia,
3. Europe,
4. China, India, Pakistan and other oil importing countries
5. Poor countries suffering from food shortages due to rising food prices

Why do you say China is losing

1) The demand for Chinese Yuan will only increase and push it as an alternative to US dollar as reserve currency
2) EU cannot afford to sanction both Russia and China. This means US will be on her own to fight China. It will make China's job easy to merge Taiwan with mainland

 

[Clutch]

If this goes nuclear... We are all losers.

 

[khansaheeb]

winner 1.US 2.UK 3. American farmers and arms dealers 4. Oil-producing countries 5.Zelenski
loser：1.Ukraine，
2. Russia,
3. Europe,
4. China, India, Pakistan and other oil importing countries
5. Poor countries suffering from food shortages due to rising food prices

US oil companies have doubled the gasoline prices so they are clear winners too.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

US oil companies have doubled the gasoline prices so they are clear winners too.

US is now exporter of Oil and Gas.

US has been putting pressure on India to buy Oil and Gas from the US instead of Russia, Iran or GCC.

 

[Clutch]

 

[xuxu1457]

Why do you say China is losing

1) The demand for Chinese Yuan will only increase and push it as an alternative to US dollar as reserve currency
2) EU cannot afford to sanction both Russia and China. This means US will be on her own to fight China. It will make China's job easy to merge Taiwan with mainland

China is the largest trading partner of Ukraine and Russia. One third of China's corn imports come from Ukraine.
China has closer ties with Ukraine than with Russia. The prototype of China's J15 fighter, the first aircraft carrier, the prototype of China's destroyer engine, Buffalo hovercraft, L15 trainer engine and so on all come from Ukraine.Russia has reservations about China's arms exports, but Ukraine basically has no reservations about China.
Ukraine exports 42% of its iron ore and other raw materials to China.
China is the largest importer of oil and gas raw materials, and the war between Russia and Ukraine will push up prices, which is certainly a bad thing for China.

China is certainly not the beneficiary of a conflict between its two best friends.

 

[tower9]

It’s still far too early to determine who will win or lose. For all we know, this could be the catalyst of a chain of events that will be global in nature. If that’s the case, all bets are off.

 

[Titanium100]

It’s still far too early to determine who will win or lose. For all we know, this could be the catalyst of a chain of events that will be global in nature. If that’s the case, all bets are off.

This 100%..

I also have a gut feeling that this is only the prelude for something bigger

 

[tower9]

This 100%..

I also have a gut feeling that this is only the prelude for something bigger

That gut feeling is telling you that world war three is around the corner.

I am starting to feel like the Ukraine invasion is like the assassination that kickstarted ww1.

 

[Cash GK]

Winners
======================

US - Without any doubt and by a big margin US is the biggest winner of this war. In one masterstroke US has destroyed EU-Russia and Russia-Japan detente

China - A weakened Russia is now a junior partner with China. China will now dominate Russia, Central Asia and all former Soviet republics. Also weakened EU will no longer have stomach to take on China. This implies that annexation of Taiwan and claiming the entire South China sea is closer than predicted earlier. Chinese Yuan will now emerge as the real alternative to US dollar than Euro.

Pakistan - Pakistan has put all her bets on China and China is coming out stronger means it is great news for Pakistan

OPEC - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Venezuela etc. are going to have good times ahead with EU, Japan, South Korea and South East Asia increasing Oil and Gas purchases to compensate for their lose of Russia as a supplier

Losers
========================

Russia - Russia's military power has taken a big beating and its economy is collapsing under sanctions and now has no choice but to become a junior partner of China. Chinese SCO will overshadow CSTO completely now. Also China can now reclaim Siberia and Artic spaces

Ukraine - The country has been totally destroyed Socially, Technologically and Economically. It will become a client state of EU and US will keep paying interest on loans for the next century

EU - All the talk of relevance of NATO and replacing it with European Security framework has been totally evaporated. EU countries will pay a heavy price economically and are now heavily dependent on the US and China for their survival. With NordStream gone, Cheap Oil and Gas from Russia is history and inflation is going to wreck their economies for foreseeable future

India - Most of the Indian military is Russian and Ukrainian origin. Ukrainian defense industry has been destroyed while Russian defence industry has been heavily sanctioned. Indian military is at its weakest in the entire history of the country. Also, US will now put additional pressure on India to buy US equipment instead with a real threat of CAATSA sanctions. China and Pakistan may initiate a war any time now

Turkiye - Turkiye tried to pivot to Russia and China but the timing turned out to be very bad. With a weakened Russia and uninterested EU and NATO partners, Revival of Turkish economy and defense industry will be a tall task. TurkStream gas pipeline will also take a big hit.

Japan - A more stronger China, weakened Quad, loss of cheap Russian Oil & Gas, Belligerent North Korea nextdoor, death of Russia-Japan detente

South Korea - South Korea - North Korea detente is dead.

ASEAN - Indo-China will be fall into complete influence of China while Southern Ocean nations will become complete vassal states of the US



What are the other winners and losers that you can think of?

You read me well.. usa gona have security n energy. This gona be big upset for EU.
Security =usa
Energy =Russia
Trade China.
Win win for everyone
Now security n energy usa
Trade China.
Eu is on very narrow path now

 

[tower9]

Too early to tell but what will probably be clear is that the biggest loser will be the EU, besides Ukraine obviously which has been smashed to smithereens.

 

[Titanium100]

That gut feeling is telling you that world war three is around the corner.

I am starting to feel like the Ukraine invasion is like the assassination that kickstarted ww1.

If things were suddenly to happen outside of my calculations it would be strange and I would be surprised. I still think this is just a prelude to a cold war that will run atleast for 25-27 years before a collision.

The world's human limit capacity will be reached exactly 2057 meaning we will hit the 10 billion population mark and the world can't support that much. The limit is between 9 and 10.. We will technically already hit the capacity limit by 2037 which is 9-billion but we will be able to manage by exhausting resources but the world won't be able to continue for more decades in that mode.

Earth's capacity​

Many scientists think Earth has a maximum carrying capacity of 9 billion to 10 billion people

One such scientist, the eminent Harvard University sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson, bases his estimate on calculations of the Earth's available resources. As Wilson pointed out in his book "The Future of Life" (Knopf, 2002), "The constraints of the biosphere are fixed."


Aside from the limited availability of freshwater, there are indeed constraints on the amount of food that Earth can produce, just as Malthus argued more than 200 years ago. Even in the case of maximum efficiency, in which all the grains grown are dedicated to feeding humans (instead of livestock, which is an inefficient way to convert plant energy into food energy), there's still a limit to how far the available quantities can stretch. "If everyone agreed to become vegetarian, leaving little or nothing for livestock, the present 1.4 billion hectares of arable land (3.5 billion acres) would support about 10 billion people," Wilson wrote.


The 3.5 billion acres would produce approximately 2 billion tons of grains annually, he explained. That's enough to feed 10 billion vegetarians, but would only feed 2.5 billion U.S. omnivores, because so much vegetation is dedicated to livestock and poultry in the United States.


So 10 billion people is the uppermost population limit where food is concerned. Because it's extremely unlikely that everyone will agree to stop eating meat, Wilson thinks the maximum carrying capacity of the Earth based on food resources will most likely fall short of 10 billion.


According to population biologist Joel Cohen of Columbia University, other environmental factors that limit the Earth's carrying capacity are the nitrogen cycle, available quantities of phosphorus, and atmospheric carbon concentrations, but there is a great amount of uncertainty in the impact of all of these factors. "In truth, no one knows when or at what level peak population will be reached," Cohen told Life's Little Mysteries.

I geninuely hold this belief that humanity will fall from a cliff around the half-century and that there will be a great dying where approx only 1.5 Billion will survive post WW3 to repopulate the earth again. The remaining will become casuality of what will be called the greatest war humanity has ever witnessed

 

[qwerrty]

EU and ukraine are the biggest losers